The Bank of Japan is raising interest rates again, why is the cryptocurrency market so "stable" this time?\n \nDuring the last rate hike, Bitcoin plummeted from 65,000 to 50,000, and Ethereum also fell below the 2,000 mark, causing panic in the market. But this time the scenario is likely to be different—two core reasons help clarify why there’s no need to panic:\n \n🔥 1. The market had already priced in expectations\nNet long positions in the yen have piled up significantly, making it difficult for short-term speculative trading to surge further; more importantly, since the beginning of this year, Japanese government bond yields have risen sharply, with both short- and long-term yield curves hitting new highs, indicating that the interest rate hike has already been digested by the market in advance.\n \n🔥 2. The Federal Reserve just gave the global market a "reassurance"\nThis week, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and introduced liquidity support policies, making global liquidity overall more accommodative. As a result, the risks of concentrated unwinding of yen arbitrage trades and sudden liquidity withdrawal at the end of the year have significantly decreased.\n \n⚠ But the interest rate hike is not over yet…\nThere are internal reports suggesting that the Bank of Japan believes that rates need to be raised to at least 0.75% or even close to 1% to potentially touch the endpoint of this round of rate hikes. The market estimates the "neutral interest rate" (the level where policy is neither too tight nor too loose) to be around 1%-2.5%—this implies there is still room for further rate hikes.\n \nCurrently, nearly 50 analysts predict that the Bank of Japan will raise rates to 0.75% next Friday. The real key point is: will the central bank announce a new analysis of the neutral interest rate? This directly relates to the pace of future rate hikes.\n \n💰 What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market?\nIn simple terms: this time the market has buffers and expectations, and liquidity is also supported by the Federal Reserve. The previous chain reaction of "yen soaring → funds withdrawing → cryptocurrency plummeting" has significantly lower probability now.\n \nThe core logic of the cryptocurrency market is shifting from "global liquidity tightening" to "asset allocation readjustment." Don't forget, whenever traditional markets experience greater volatility, independent trends in digital assets are often quietly brewing～$BTC \n\n$ETH \n\n#美联储降息