Gold Weekly Review and Next Week Outlook: Central Bank + Data Double Storm Approaches, Key Battle Position for Bulls and Bears
This week, international gold showed a volatile upward trend overall. After a downward adjustment at the beginning of the week, from Tuesday to Friday, it experienced a strong four-day bullish trend, ultimately closing with a weekly gain, indicating a temporary dominance of the bulls.
1. This week's core logic of the fundamentals
The global financial and industrial markets are developing around five major lines: expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy, a strong outbreak in precious metals, divergence in policy orientations of multiple central banks, geopolitical disturbances, and impacts of technological industrial transformation, with asset prices fluctuating sharply in response to core events.
II. Market alert for next week: Central bank nuclear bomb group + dual data thunderstorm bombardment
Next week, the market will usher in a super data and policy week, with the controversy over the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continuing to ferment. The interest rate decisions of the three major central banks in the UK, Eurozone, and Japan will follow one after another, and heavyweight data such as non-farm and CPI will make a joint appearance, facing severe tests for assets like the dollar, gold and silver, and U.S. stocks.
1. Federal Reserve: Hawkish voices dominate, concentrated speeches from officials
Multiple officials have released hawkish signals, opposing premature interest rate cuts. Next week, officials including Milan, Williams, and Bostic will successively deliver speeches, and their remarks may further stir market expectations.
2. Central banks of the UK, Eurozone, and Japan: Each decision has its highlights
- Bank of England: The probability of an interest rate cut is as high as 90%. If accompanied by dovish signals, the pound may face downward pressure;
- European Central Bank: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. If Lagarde's speech reaffirms optimistic economic expectations, the euro is likely to gain support;
- Bank of Japan: Rate hike expectations have risen to 75%. If the hawkish expectations are not met, the yen may continue to fall. Caution is required as USD/JPY approaches the 160 mark for possible intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
3. Key data: Non-farm + CPI lead the way, triggering market volatility
The unemployment rate in the U.S. for November, non-farm employment population, CPI data, retail sales, and other core data will be released in a clustered manner, which will directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy path judgment and become an important driver of market trends.
III. In-depth analysis of technical aspects: Key points determine direction, intensifying the bullish and bearish game
This week, gold has surged strongly, but after hitting the resistance area of 4353/4354 on Friday, it fell sharply, forming a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, highlighting heavy selling pressure at high levels and increasing divergence between bulls and bears.
1. Wave structure deduction: Two paths to be verified
- Path of pressure drop: If the price fails to break through the previous high of 4381/4382 and falls below the support range of 4255-4265, it is highly likely to initiate a C wave decline;
- Breakthrough upward path: If it strongly breaks through the previous high of 4381/4382, the adjustment wave pattern will be declared over, and the current market will enter the driving wave 3 upward stage.
2. Core reference for support and resistance
The 4255-4265 range is a key support for the top-bottom conversion, and the effectiveness of this area determines the short-term rebound momentum; at the same time, it is necessary to track the guiding tracks of two rising channels to judge the rhythm of market operations.
3. Summary of operational strategies
Next week's operations need to focus on two core issues: First is whether to break through the previous high of 4381/4382, and second is the gains and losses in the support range of 4240-4265. It is recommended to closely monitor signal confirmations and avoid blindly chasing up or down, waiting for clearer trends before making layout decisions.
