#日本央行加息或打压BTC $BTC Pressuring BTC has reasonable grounds, and the core reason is that the closing logic of yen arbitrage trading will bring short-term selling pressure to BTC, with specific impacts as follows:
1. Triggering arbitrage closures leads to selling: For a long time, the yen has been a global low-cost financing currency. A large number of investors borrow yen to invest in high-yield risk assets like BTC to earn arbitrage profits. An interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan will increase the cost of borrowing yen, compressing or even causing losses in arbitrage profits, leading investors to focus on selling BTC to repay debts in yen, directly triggering selling pressure on BTC. For example, after the Bank of Japan exits negative interest rates in 2024, Bitcoin's monthly decline reached 12%.
2. Tightening market liquidity suppresses upward momentum: The market currently estimates a high probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%. An interest rate hike will drive up the value of the yen and may also trigger a restructuring of global capital flows, with some funds flowing back from risk assets like cryptocurrencies to the Japanese domestic market, leading to a contraction in BTC market liquidity. The rapid decline of BTC in early December was a macro-driven deleveraging result triggered by the closure of yen arbitrage trades.
3. Rising risk aversion reduces asset attractiveness: Interest rate hikes often elevate risk aversion, prompting investors to reduce portfolio risks and prioritize strong liquidity stable assets. BTC, as a high-volatility risk asset, will see its attractiveness decrease, and leveraged traders, in order to repay short-term debts, will also forcibly liquidate BTC positions, further amplifying its decline. Recently, nearly $1 billion in leveraged cryptocurrency positions were liquidated in a single day.
However, this is more of a short-term impact. In the medium to long term, if global macro uncertainty intensifies, BTC's super-sovereign asset attributes may strengthen, and regulatory optimization in Japan's Web3 sector may also attract local institutional funds, at which point BTC is expected to gradually rebound.
