【2025-12-14 21:27】ETHUSDT Short-Term Strategy
**Overall Direction Judgment (1-Hour Chart)**:
Bearish Direction (Only Short)
- Price ≈3092 < EMA20 (3105.86) < EMA50 (3123.75)
- MACD: DIF -5.47 < DEA -3.94, MACD -1.54 (Green Bar, though small but negative value, green bar after death cross)
Overall trend is downward sloping, price operates below EMA, meeting bearish conditions.
Entry Rules (Lower Time Frame, 15 Minutes):
Secondary Breakout Entry (Following Trend) - Bearish
- Price has broken below the previous low/support level ≈3048.32 (marked low), and has rebounded but has not broken this level confirmed (current price 3092, if unable to break 3048-3050 area after rebound, can be seen as rebound without breaking).
- Recently, there have been enlarged green candles, and trading volume has a pulse (149K high bar), supporting bearish continuation.
- No obvious bearish engulfing pattern, but suitable for chasing shorts after breakout and retest confirmation.
**Stop Loss and Take Profit**:
- Stop Loss: Recent swing high ≈3128-3132 (or previous high resistance), or ATR 1-1.5 times (ATR, estimated 50-80 points, stop loss can be set at 3130-3150). Risk control at 1-1.5% of capital.
- Take Profit: Risk-reward ratio ≥2:1
- First Take Profit: 50% position exits at 2R (for example, entry at 3090, stop loss at 3140 risk 50 points, then first TP 3090-100=2990).
- Remaining 50% aims for 3-4R (TP 3090-150/200=2940/2890), or trailing stop to previous low extension (around 2900).
Currently, consider entering short when rebounding to the 3050-3080 area meets resistance, operating in the direction of the overall trend. Pay attention to reducing positions before the weekend (today is Sunday, major event risk is low but liquidity is thin). No Fibonacci area for adding positions. $ETH
