December 14 market view: Waterfall warning, waiting to buy the dip

In the past few days, the market has been oscillating downwards around 90,000 to 93,000, with increasingly smaller fluctuations. This feeling is becoming more and more reminiscent of the situation before the significant drop in November 2018.

The buying power in the entire market is very weak and increasingly cold, whether in the primary or secondary market. If we say there is little room for a rebound from 90,000 to a maximum of 98,000, and the market is also showing everyone through action that it just can't go up in the short term, then the only direction left with the least resistance is down. We are very close to the weekly level of the rebound cycle. However, on the daily level, we are still missing the last big drop. There is no room for a rebound from 90,000 to 98,000, but if it drops to 70,000-75,000 and then starts a major rebound cycle on the weekly level back to 98,000, then the rebound space would be 30%-40%. The incremental funds waiting on the sidelines are all waiting for the price of 70,000; it's impossible to go all in at 90,000.

Therefore, I'm waiting for the last big drop before the weekly rebound.

Next week, the interest rate hike in Japan on the 18th may be the bottoming point. If there is an opportunity to buy the dip between 70,000 and 80,000, I will consider going all in to buy the dip directly.

My projection for the future is as shown: