Morning Share
This week there are many news items, Non-Farm Payrolls on Tuesday, CPI year-on-year on Thursday, and interest rate hike in Japan on Friday. Everyone should be cautious in trading as this week is not easy.
From a probability perspective, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January is basically equivalent to a scratch-off lottery ticket unless this week's Non-Farm data is extremely poor + inflation is very low, which might slightly increase the possibility of a rate cut. However, the market has already absorbed the expectation of no rate cut in January, and even if there is indeed no rate cut, the impact will not be significant; otherwise, the waterfall would have started on the 10th.
Secondly, Japan's interest rate hike will not necessarily cause a significant drop in risk assets. In other words, although the last interest rate hike in Japan led to a drop in the cryptocurrency market, this time the rate hike is within expectations, and small fluctuations are more likely while a significant unilateral trend is difficult. Japan's rate hike will lead to the outflow of Japanese arbitrage positions and hot money, and at least some will flow into US stocks, which is beneficial from this perspective. However, it is not friendly to the Nikkei.
BTC's liquidity over the weekend was very poor, and there was a downturn yesterday evening, but it stopped falling around 880. The fluctuation range of BTC between 880 and 940 has not completely broken through, and without a complete breakout from the range, it is not easy to believe in a significant unilateral trend. At least from a technical perspective, with the current probability of rising or falling at 50%, there is no need to gamble on one side of the trend.
Insider Brother is still increasing positions in Ethereum longs, while all other longs have not made any moves. Combined with the Federal Reserve's invisible QE, the short-term probability of an increase is slightly higher.
BTC around 88000 to enter long, 920-930-940 to enter short in batches.
