Even though the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) has maintained its position in the Nasdaq 100 index, concerns are growing about whether the company's business model can hold up in the long run. New analysis shows that the year 2028 will be crucial for the company's survival.
The company now owns so much Bitcoin that it can influence the entire market. They have much more Bitcoin than most major investors.
Tiger Research: “2028 is the real test”
Blockchain research company Tiger Research has pointed out 2028 as the most important risk point in its analysis of Strategy's financial structure.
The report shows an important change in how Strategy raised capital. Until 2023, the company used its own money and small convertible loans, keeping its Bitcoin holdings at a low level around 100,000 BTC. From 2024, Strategy took on much more debt by combining preferred shares, ATM programs, and large convertible offerings. As the Bitcoin price rose, the company could buy even more Bitcoin.
The problem is that the call options on these convertible loans accumulate by 2028. Then the redemption requirement will be approximately 6.4 billion USD. Investors may demand that the company pay back, and the company cannot refuse.
No cash flow, no safety net
Tiger Research points out a fundamental weakness: Strategy used almost all its money to buy Bitcoin instead of acquiring assets that generate cash flow.
“If the money had gone to productive assets, the company would have a natural source for repayment,” the report states. “But since the focus is on accumulating Bitcoin, there is little money to redeem loans for.”
If Strategy cannot take new loans in 2028, the company must sell approximately 71,000 BTC for 90,000 USD per Bitcoin. This corresponds to 20–30% of the daily trading volume. Thus, the entire market risks being affected by falling prices.
Bankruptcy threshold raised
Strategy's fixed bankruptcy threshold is 23,000 USD as of 2025. To reach that, the price must fall by 73%. The level has risen from 12,000 USD in 2023 to 18,000 USD in 2024, as debts grow faster than Bitcoin holdings.
“Strategy's structural risk is low under normal conditions but becomes very high in 2028,” warns Tiger Research. “If refinancing fails, such selling pressure may arise that the entire Bitcoin market is affected.”
The report also states that newer digital asset companies are even more vulnerable. They lack Strategy's security from experiences during the downturn in 2022.
Nasdaq 100 retains value despite skepticism
Meanwhile, Strategy remained in Nasdaq 100 after the latest rebalancing, which was announced last weekend. However, MSCI, which manages global indices, plans to review Strategy's position in January. Some argue that their buy-and-hold strategy for Bitcoin resembles an investment fund more than a tech company.
Strategy started the model with Bitcoin treasury for companies in 2020 and other companies have copied their method. But as the volatility in Bitcoin causes the stock price to fall—Strategy has backed down by 47% in three months—concerns are growing about whether the company can handle its large debts in the future.
