Dalio's "Restraint" and Soros's "Greed": Top Principles of Output and Investment An athlete once said: "In a super marathon, the one who wins is often the person who slows down the least."

The principle behind this is:

1. In physics, "slowing down" means the loss of kinetic energy. Just like driving, slamming the brakes and then restarting often consumes the most fuel.

2. From a mathematical perspective, it is the volatility drag. Significant drawdowns can severely lower the compound return rate. "Slowing down the least" is about pursuing extremely low "volatility."

3. In terms of competition, stability can create psychological pressure on opponents.

Therefore, maintaining the continuity of the system is more powerful than pursuing instantaneous explosiveness.

The most famous example of this is the "20-mile rule": during Antarctic exploration, Amundsen insisted on traveling 20 miles a day, going no further in good weather and not less in bad weather, ultimately winning the life-and-death contest.

However, Nobel laureate Thaler has an opposing view.

He found that many New York taxi drivers stubbornly stick to a "fixed daily income": even on rainy days when business is great, they stop early once they make enough money; but when business is bad, they stubbornly keep working.

Thaler said: This is backwards! The rational strategy is: on rainy days, there are more passengers, so they should work more; while on bad days with no business, it’s better to go home early.

In a nonlinear world with uneven distribution, when big opportunities arise, you should accelerate; while in barren times, not slowing down is a waste.

Is this contradictory? No, this essentially reflects the difference between environment and goals:

a. Amundsen pursues a linear endurance race of "continuous links";

b. Thaler emphasizes the nonlinear opportunity field of "maximizing returns."

Amundsen is suited for endurance-based linear projects (like fitness, reading, entrepreneurship), pursuing continuity;

Thaler is applicable in unevenly distributed fields (like investment, entrepreneurship), working less in bad times and charging hard in good times. Buffett has also said, in investing, when you have nothing to do, it’s best to do nothing! Soros also believes, when you seize a good opportunity, go all in ~#ETH走势分析 #美联储降息 $BTC