Monero (XMR) was rejected at 420 USD along with bearish divergence on OBV, increasing the risk of correction to 400–395 USD, even 380–360 USD.
Over the weekend, XMR declined 4.09% from the peak of 419.4 USD after bouncing from the 360 USD zone. The weekly structure remains positive, but 4-hour momentum is weakening, raising questions about whether the uptrend will continue or if it needs to retest nearby supports.
MAIN CONTENT
Resistance at 418–420 USD has been active for six weeks, causing the latest rejection.
OBV has been making lower highs for 7 months, signaling weak demand.
Base scenario: test 400–395 USD; deeper to 380 and the demand zone at 360 USD; take profit on longs, wait for BTC > 94,000 USD.
XMR faces resistance at 418–420 USD and the risk of testing 400–395 USD
Correct. From the peak of 419.4 USD, the price was rejected at 420 USD; the H4 RSI is below 50 and the weakening OBV suggests a test of 400–395 USD first, with the next support at 380 and 360 USD.
From a derivative perspective, the BingX platform provides tools to track funding, OI, and liquidations, useful for assessing leverage strength around the 420–400 USD levels when considering risk management and entry/exit points.
Over the weekend, XMR declined 4.09% from the peak of 419.4 USD, reacting exactly at the 'magnet zone' of 418–420 USD that has dominated for six weeks. Buying power is insufficient to break through and maintain above this range.
It is highly likely that the price will test 400–395 USD to find liquidity. If the demand weakens for an extended period, a slide down to 380 USD or the demand zone at 360 USD may occur before the market chooses its next direction.
The weekly structure still leans towards the buyers
Yes. The drop below 367 USD (50% retracement level) is protected, allowing the price to bounce back to 419 USD; the weekly RSI around 59 remains positive, although the volume has not strongly supported it.
The weekly swing structure remains intact, demonstrated by the defense of 367 USD and quick recovery. However, the OBV making lower highs for 7 months shows the uptrend lacks a sustainable demand foundation, making each touch at 420 USD likely to be rejected.
The 4-hour frame signals a momentum reversal
Yes. The H4 RSI fell below 50 and the OBV broke last week's low, confirming increasing selling pressure and the risk of retesting 395 USD.
On H4, the structure is still bullish but momentum has shifted phase. The psychological level of 400 USD may see the first buying reaction, but the declining OBV indicates that the recovery effort needs additional confirmation before expecting a breakout.
The short-term recovery scenario could be bolstered if Bitcoin bounces back above 90,000 USD, helping improve altcoin sentiment and increasing the likelihood of holding 400–395 USD.
The condition for the uptrend to extend to 450 USD
Need to convincingly reclaim 420 USD, then aim for and test 450 USD to establish a sustainable uptrend.
Being rejected at 420 USD shows that the current buying power is not enough to extend to 450 USD. To change the situation, we need to observe the OBV making higher highs, the H4 RSI returning above 50, and candles accepting prices above 420 USD, at which point the target of 450 USD will become feasible.
Trading strategy: take profits on longs and wait for confirmation from Bitcoin
Prioritize taking profits on long positions; consider re-entering when Bitcoin surpasses 94,000 USD to improve confidence in altcoins.
In the short term, clear support is at 400–395 USD, followed by 380 USD and the demand zone at 360 USD. The depth of the correction is unclear, so it is advisable to wait for a confirmation signal rather than trying to catch the bottom too early. Break & hold above 420 USD will reopen the trajectory to 450 USD.
Conclusion
Weak buying pressure on OBV and declining H4 momentum makes the corrective scenario dominant; watch for reactions at 400–395 USD along with Bitcoin's movements.
The OBV of XMR is creating a new low across multiple frames, reflecting a lack of buying power.
Even if 400 USD is defended, avoid entering long too early; a Bitcoin rebound is needed to reinforce altcoin confidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does XMR still have an upward trend?
The weekly structure remains bullish thanks to the protection of 367 USD and the weekly RSI ~59, but the prolonged bearish divergence on OBV undermines trend durability, increasing the risk of a short-term correction to 400–395 USD, even 380–360 USD.
What price level should we pay attention to next?
Right near is 400–395 USD, deeper at 380 USD and the demand zone at 360 USD. On the upside, need to reclaim 420 USD before aiming for the target of 450 USD.
When to consider reopening a long position?
When Bitcoin surpasses 94,000 USD, it helps improve sentiment, while XMR reclaims 420 USD with improved OBV and the H4 RSI returning above 50; or if there is strong buying reaction, confirm at 395/360 USD.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/gia-monero-400-usd-ho-tro-chinh/
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