🚀🚀🚀**The current Ethereum is at a critical juncture of $3120, where a tug-of-war led by whales, combined with on-chain data and technical signals, is playing out.**
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The core contradiction in the market is very clear: there is pressure and uncertainty on a macro level, but on-chain data shows that smart 'big funds' are quietly positioning themselves.
* **The core bullish argument is 'whales accumulating'**. On-chain data shows that addresses holding between 10,000 to 100,000 ETH have recently increased their holdings by over 800,000 ETH. Meanwhile, the ETH balance on centralized exchanges has dropped to **8.6%** of the total supply, the lowest level since 2015. This indicates that potential selling pressure is decreasing, and another on-chain whale has also recently increased their ETH long position. These signals are typically seen as positive signs.
* **The bearish concerns stem from 'technical weakness'**. The price lacks decisive upward momentum under macro headwinds. Analysts point out that ETH must regain a foothold above **$3400** to reverse the current weak trend; otherwise, there is a high risk of a pullback testing the key support at **$3000-3020**. The daily trend has not yet reversed. $ASTER $BNB
**For retail investors, now is not the time to bet on direction, but rather a time to execute discipline.**
1. **Key Levels**: Use **$3150** (short-term strong/weak boundary) and **$3020** (core support) as anchor points for decision-making.
2. **Operational Strategy**: Before the price effectively breaks and holds above $3150, any rebound should primarily focus on reducing positions or maintaining a wait-and-see approach. If it approaches the $3020 support area, consider gradually positioning based on volume changes.
3. **Core Mindset**: During the current volatile period where bullish and bearish signals conflict, **preserving cash and maintaining patience** is far more important than frequent trading. The accumulation of whales' chips needs time to ferment; waiting for the market to make its directional choice is a more prudent strategy.
> The above analysis integrates recent on-chain data and technical analysis views and is only a整理 of market information, not investment advice.
