We are in December 2025 and the cryptocurrency market is in a moment of reflection. After reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October, Bitcoin has retreated, leaving investors with the classic question: has the cycle ended or are we just taking a breath?
For 21Shares, one of the largest and most respected crypto asset managers in Switzerland, the answer is clear: the show is not over yet. In its newly released annual report, "State of Crypto 2025", the manager outlines an optimistic scenario where the mark of $126,000 is not a ceiling, but rather a level to be reclaimed and surpassed throughout 2026.
But what sustains this Swiss optimism? Below, we dissect the main points of the report for you to understand where the market is heading.
Bitcoin Has Matured (And This Changes Everything)
The central argument of 21Shares is not based on "hype" or rampant speculation, but rather on the change in asset behavior. The report highlights that Bitcoin has completed its transition from a speculative risk asset to a global macro hedge (a protection against economic uncertainties).
Historically, Bitcoin moved in sync with technology stocks. When Nasdaq fell, Bitcoin plummeted. In 2025, we saw this link weaken. Bitcoin began to respond more to concerns about government debt and monetary inflation, behaving more like the digital gold it has always promised to be.
For the manager, this attracts a type of money that is much more "heavy" and patient: institutional capital. Pension funds, corporate treasuries, and large banks do not buy to sell the following week; they buy to hold for years.
Goodbye Falls of 70%: The New Volatility
One of the most fascinating data points brought in the report is about the "depth of corrections". Those who have been in the market longer remember the brutal crypto winters of 2018 or 2022, where Bitcoin could lose 70% or 80% of its value.
According to 21Shares, this pattern has changed in this cycle. From the beginning of 2024 to the end of 2025, corrections (drops) did not exceed the mark of 30%.
Why is this important?
When the price drops by 20% or 25%, new institutional buyers (via ETFs, for example) see a buying opportunity, creating a stronger "floor" price. The volatility, which has always been the nightmare of conservative investors, is being tamed. This gives confidence for 21Shares to project that the recovery from the peak of $126,000 is a matter of time, not luck.
The Role of Ethereum and the "War" of Blockchains
The report does not only talk about Bitcoin. The Swiss manager dedicates a significant part of their analysis to the ecosystem of smart contracts, focusing mainly on the dynamics between Ethereum and Solana.
The vision for 2026 is one of specialization:
Ethereum: Continues to be the "Wall Street" of blockchains. It is the home of real asset tokenization (RWA) and large institutional financial transactions. Despite criticisms regarding fees or speed at the base layer, its layer 2 (L2) solutions ensure its dominance.
Solana: Establishing itself as the "Nasdaq" or the Visa of cryptos, focused on speed and retail. It is where the average user navigates easily and where new mass consumption applications are emerging.
21Shares believes there will not be a single winner that will "kill" the other. Instead, both will grow in different niches, driving the total value of the crypto market upwards.
The "Stablecoins" Factor
Another point supporting the bullish thesis for 2026 is the explosive use of stablecoins (cryptocurrencies pegged to the dollar). The report indicates that the transaction volume in stablecoins already rivals that of traditional global payment networks.
This creates a constant demand for tokenized dollars and serves as an entry point for new users. The more people use stablecoins for international payments or protection against inflation in emerging countries, the more liquid and robust the crypto infrastructure becomes overall, benefiting Bitcoin indirectly.
Conclusion: What to Expect in 2026?
The message from the Swiss manager to the investor is one of strategic patience. The year 2025 was marked by the euphoria of massive ETF approvals and reaching $126,000. The year 2026, in their view, will be the year of consolidation and expansion.
If 21Shares' thesis is correct, the current price (in mid-December 2025) may be seen in the future as one of the last windows of opportunity before Bitcoin seeks new highs above its historical record. With global inflation still being a sensitive topic and governments printing money, "digital gold" has never seemed so necessary.
As always, the market is sovereign and risks exist, but having a giant Swiss pointing north certainly brings additional comfort to those holding their coins.