#黄金 #美联储降息 Tonight, the non-farm payroll data is coming in hot. Gold needs to strengthen its risk defense line and strictly adhere to risk control rules. Before the data is released: the trend is mainly oscillating with a slight bullish bias.
1. Expectations: This non-farm core indicator presents a combination of 'employment weakness + wage stickiness'—the expected non-farm employment population for November is only 50,000 (on the low side), the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.4% (at a relatively high level), while the year-on-year/month-on-month average hourly wage is expected to be 3.6% and 0.3% respectively (wages still show stickiness). This combination will lead the market to bet on the Federal Reserve's easing expectations in advance, providing support for gold.
2. Technical linkage: If gold has not previously broken key support (such as the 4260 you mentioned), the market will rely on support to maintain a low bullish mindset, testing resistance levels like 4300 and 4320 upwards, with a high probability of oscillating with a slight bullish trend before the data is released.
After the data is released: two-way fluctuations, observing the deviation between actual values and expectations.
1. If the data falls short of expectations (bullish for gold)
- Non-farm employment population < 50,000, unemployment rate > 4.4%: Indicates a weakening U.S. labor market, rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold will quickly break through 4300 and 4320, and may even further test higher resistance.
- Wage data below expectations (year-on-year < 3.6% / month-on-month < 0.3%): Easing inflation pressures will also strengthen easing expectations, boosting gold prices.
2. If the data exceeds expectations (bearish for gold)
- Non-farm employment population > 50,000, unemployment rate < 4.4%: The resilience of the labor market exceeds expectations, cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold will break below the 4260 support level, testing support levels like 4240 and 4220 downwards.
- Wage data above expectations: Concerns about inflation stickiness will further suppress gold's trend.
3. If the data meets expectations: Gold is likely to maintain the original oscillating range (4260-4320), with a narrowing volatility range, waiting for subsequent signals from other fundamentals.
