When Donald Trump returned to the White House, a good part of the crypto market expected a déjà vu scenario. Rhetoric in favor of crypto, more friendly regulation, institutional inflows, and a new appetite for risk: everything seemed to herald a historic bull run.
Instead, with the closure of 2025 now approaching, the crypto market ends the year significantly lower, stopping only at 20% compared to its peak during the Biden era.
Even with Trump, the crypto market is still only at 20% of the levels of the Biden era
This contradiction is at the heart of an increasingly heated debate about whether the crypto sector is stuck in a tough phase or if something deeper has broken.
“It is time to recognize and admit that the crypto market is broken,” stated Ran Neuner, analyst and host of Crypto Banter.
The analyst highlighted an unprecedented disconnection between fundamentals and prices. According to Neuner, 2025 had “all the ingredients for a bull run”:
Abundant liquidity,
A pro-crypto USA government,
Spot ETFs (particularly on Bitcoin and Ethereum),
Aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin by figures like Michael Saylor,
Participation of states/nations and sovereign funds, and
Macro assets like stocks, precious metals like gold and silver reaching all-time highs.
“Even with all these conditions,” Neuner continued, “we are closing 2025 lower and only at 20% of where we were with Biden.”
This suggests that traditional explanations are no longer valid. Theories about four-year cycles, about locked liquidity or an IPO moment for crypto, seem increasingly like justifications constructed in hindsight rather than true answers.
According to Neuner, the result is a market that has only two possible paths ahead:
A hidden structural seller or a mechanism that is suppressing prices, or
Cryptos are preparing for what he calls “the mother of all recovery operations” when markets will return, sooner or later, to equilibrium.
Not everyone agrees that something is broken.
Market observer Gordon Gekko, a highly followed user on X, responded by claiming that this painful phase is wanted and structural, but is not a sign of dysfunction.
“There is nothing broken: it is simply what the market makers wanted. Sentiment is at a low for years; leveraged traders are losing everything. It should not be easy: only the strongest will be rewarded,” he wrote.
This division reflects a deep change in crypto behavior compared to previous cycles. During Trump's first term, from 2017 to 2020, cryptos thrived in a regulatory vacuum.
Retail speculation was dominant, leverage had no limits, and reflexive momentum drove prices far beyond the real value of projects.
With Biden, however, the market has become institutional. Regulation focused on enforcement has limited risk appetite, while ETFs, custodians, and compliance contexts have reshaped allocation and capital flows.
Ironically, many of the most anticipated tailwinds for crypto have come precisely during the time of greatest restrictions:
ETFs have opened the doors, but mainly for Bitcoin.
Institutions have allocated, but often with hedges and mechanical rebalancing.
Liquidity was present, but it flowed into TradFi instruments instead of on-chain ecosystems.
The result is a scale without reflexivity.
Bitcoin resists while altcoins break in the new crypto regime.
This structural change has been particularly painful for altcoins: according to analysts and KOLs like Shanaka Anslem and others, the unified crypto market no longer exists.
In 2025, in fact, “two distinct games” have emerged:
Institutional crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ETFs with crushed volatility and long time horizons, and
Attention crypto: where millions of tokens compete for temporary liquidity and most collapse within a few days.
Capital no longer flows smoothly from Bitcoin to altcoins, as it did during the so-called altseason. It flows directly to the mandate for which it was intended.
“…Your only choices now: play the Institutional Crypto with patience and macro awareness or play the Attention Crypto with speed and focus on infrastructure,” Anslem wrote.
According to this opinion leader, holding altcoins for months based on a thesis is now the worst possible strategy.
“You did not arrive early for the altseason. You are waiting for a market structure that no longer exists,” he added.
Perhaps this is where a trader's conviction lies, that is, knowing where to look. Lisa Edwards supports this thesis, urging market participants to understand liquidity flows.
“Things change, cycles shift, money moves in new ways. If you are waiting for the old altseason, you will miss what is actually running right in front of your eyes,” he stated.
Quinten François shares this viewpoint, emphasizing that the number of tokens in 2025 is much higher compared to previous cycles. With more than 11.000.000 tokens currently existing, the idea of a large-scale altseason like in 2017 or 2021 may simply be surpassed.
Between repricing and recovery, the post-institutional test of the crypto market
Meanwhile, macro factors continue to weigh on market sentiment. Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, emphasizes that Bitcoin's drop towards its 100-week moving average (MA) reflects renewed fears about the AI bubble, uncertainty regarding future Fed leadership, and year-end profit-taking due to taxation.
“All of this paves the way for a disappointing end in 2025,” he stated in an email to BeInCrypto, warning that BTC could slightly dip below $80,000 if sales were to accelerate.
It is unclear whether cryptos are in crisis or simply transforming, and investors should do their own research.
What is certain, however, is that the expectations of the Trump era clash with a market structure typical of the Biden era, and old strategies are no longer applicable.
Comparisons between economists and investors at traditional desks suggest a brutal revaluation or a violent recovery rally, potentially defining the post-institutional identity of the crypto sector.
