Brothers, while keeping an eye on the USDT proportion curve, I almost spat my coffee on the keyboard today. This thing swaying at a high level looks a lot like the old man squatting at the village entrance to watch the fun. It seems stable as an old dog, but in reality, it could slip away faster than anyone else at the slightest movement! What's even more exciting is that tonight's non-farm payroll data is going to stir things up, and on the 18th, there are two major "ultimate moves" waiting. For those holding chips, don't just stare at the market in a daze; this article will clearly outline the pitfalls and opportunities for you.
Let's talk about a harsh reality: recently, the "money vibe" in the market has changed. The data on the market share of stablecoins clearly shows that there is more cash-like assets in everyone's hands, while the actual chips for competition are decreasing. To put it simply, we are in a stalemate phase of "more cash, fewer chips." However, what is more concerning is not this, but the fact that USDT's proportion has been hovering at a high level for so long, showing signs of forming a top, which is eerily similar to the signals before last year's market turns.
Here's a core logic supplement for new brothers: remember this piece of valuable information: the proportion of stablecoins is like the market's "barometer of sentiment". When it starts to drop, it indicates that everyone feels the opportunity has come, eagerly exchanging cash for various tokens; this is a clear signal for the buying pressure to rise. Conversely, if it continues to surge upwards, it’s either that everyone is cashing out profits or holding their tokens and waiting, and the market is likely entering a cooling period. The current sideways oscillation is essentially both bulls and bears "holding back their big moves", no one dares to act first.
Let's talk about the recent news: tonight at 9:30, the non-farm data is definitely a "disruptor". But my long-time followers know my viewpoint: the fluctuations brought by this kind of data are at most "shaking the boat", it hurts a bit but won't cause any serious damage, and it definitely won't directly change the current market direction. The real key lies on the 18th, the interest rate adjustments in Japan and the inflation data in the US, these two are the real "table-flipping" players. Based on my judgment of the current macro environment and market structure, these two sets of data will likely put downward pressure on the market, especially since the current rebound strength is already weak.
So today's operational thinking is particularly simple: don't chase the rise, and don't panic-sell, just quietly act as an "observer" and see how much this rebound can reach. If it really rebounds, you need to be even more cautious, as this could likely be the market's "final carnival" before the news on the 18th arrives, and there will likely be a concentrated emotional release afterward. Of course, this is not an absolute conclusion, as the market is always right; what we can do is to adjust timely based on market changes, rather than stubbornly sticking to our views.
Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: the recent market trend is like walking on a tightrope, it looks thrilling but the risks are extremely high. Instead of gambling on a heartbeat during the non-farm payroll night, it’s better to focus on the key data on the 18th. I have set the key time points as alarms, and if there are any movements in the market, I will immediately share my latest judgment in the comments. Brothers who find this analysis useful, please give me a follow@帝王说币 #加密市场观察 $BTC
