Why is it difficult to escape the top?

1. Before reaching the top, the market always circulates larger price targets and a hot sentiment. For example, the price of the pancake is expected to reach 10,000, and there have indeed been good changes in the fundamentals.

2. After surpassing the top, people feel that the wealth at the top still belongs to them, unwilling to let go, unable to look forward; similar to the mentality of holding onto contracts.

3. Even after surpassing the top for several months, various analysts, KOLs, and media still remain optimistic.

4. After the top, the market has already declined for several months, while the fundamental changes are improving. In other words, escaping the top requires a keen sense of market conditions, and people can easily be misled by positive fundamentals.

5. After surpassing the top, there have been multiple rebounds to new highs during the bull market. People can easily mistake the rebounds during the declines as a sign that the bull market has returned. In a repeated state of bulls returning, new lows are hit time and again.

6. Escaping the top involves judging the major cycle tops. This top is difficult to judge accurately, compounded by Federal Reserve policies and new situations from Wall Street institutions, leading to easy distortion and subjectivity in judgment.

7. Various indicators at the top, such as the 60-day increase, slope, level 1 market valuation, bubbles, 200-day investment cost lines, UTXO waves, etc., are all difficult to provide precise results for the top.

8. There is a lack of clear plans for selling and escaping the top. Due to excessive greed to catch the top, insufficient time is allocated for pre-determined sell-offs. Risk control is crucial; it is not necessary to chase the top but to operate within a certain range.