币富日记-HRAA668

Currently focusing on two key coins:
$Sto, $Nom
Both of these coins are on a 4-hour chart, and the pullback will be relatively deep, waiting to make a rebound.

Other secondary focuses:
$Dexe is missing some acceleration, can buy the dip when it drops (high control coin)
$Aria, $VVV pending
$based's operational idea: see if we can collect a few greens in 15 minutes, or it should not drop below 0.08, if it breaks, then pass.

Assuming Japan raises interest rates in June, based on the pattern that every major crash is typically preceded by a phase of a rebound peak (within 6-7 weeks), I’m making a prediction about the upper limit of the BTC rebound two months in advance: it could get infinitely close to 96000, which is the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. This is the most ideal scenario for the next 6 weeks, and the probability isn’t low, aligning with the trend of a weekly oversold rebound, likely reaching that point in about 6-7 weeks.

If the peak is 96000, based on historical data from third legs of bear markets, the lowest point of the crash and correction can be calculated as 96000 - (96000 - 59800) * 1.214 = 52053. Damn, what do you think when you see that number? It coincides with the 52000 derived from another calculation method in my pinned prediction post (assuming this year has a third major leg down).

This formula is something I’ve summarized after repeatedly analyzing several major ups and downs over the years; it’s the culmination of experience. During the 2022 bear market, I used this approach to identify the bottom around 17000 and held onto it until it surpassed 96000 to start cashing out.

Therefore, whether the third major leg down exists definitely requires a super bearish event to trigger its formation. The lowest point of this major leg down can be precisely locked in using the starting point minus (starting point - the lowest point of the previous major leg down) * 1.214 (this coefficient generally ranges between 1.214 and 1.386, and won't exceed 1.386), allowing you to accurately define its range. You all can bookmark this, so you can set it ahead of time and share your 'surprises' with me. By locking it in early, you can take high short positions close to the take-profit point and also scoop up the bottom ahead of time. As soon as Japan's interest rate hike is confirmed, you can start preparing.

eth强的时候很强，弱的时候也很弱。一般回调到强支撑附近也不会立刻马上有大的反弹，会先在支撑附近横一下，再慢慢弹，突破最近的阻力点后再加速反弹。所以eth的短线走势特点决定了短线交易做多要以右侧交易为主，左侧交易不适合百倍杠杆和重仓位，因为回调完不会马上反弹，横盘震荡的过程就能把你虐死，你撑不住就会选择下车，下车后也就快到了它开始要反弹的时间点了。所以合约做eth的节奏要讲求“慢”，慢就是快、稳。

因此，昨天中午砸下来我让在eth回踩2312进多，其实这个位置相对前一周而言也是属于做多的中低位，很容易盈利，只不过昨晚美股玩了一个先上后下的诱多动作，在晚上22点后跌破了2300。在昨天下午，我强调了两次，如果2300跌破，2312的多单就不要了，小损而谋大定。这里损了就可以去2288-2252区间接多，这里接回来就很容易在2310-2330区间获利。如2250破位，2222/2212就是抄底点，而即使2250破位，2280-2252的多单也很容易盈利。这就是这两天短线上低多的思路。

很多空军一下看跌到什么2180、2000都是不切实际，空头思维有一个致命点，就是看到下跌的时候就忍不住去追空，越跌就越追求跌到越低，最后通常容易空在地板上。空头思维只适合在单边下跌的趋势中能赚大钱，比如2日线级别调整、3日线级别调整和周、月线级别这种大级别调整中，逢高做空才有肉吃。你看11-2月月线级别调整的5个月里，我让你做多追涨了吗？2月最后一天我判定月线5连阴即将终结，要逐渐转低多为主高空为辅，而到了4月6日，我直接摊牌明确讲要开始转做低多策略了，这都是一路交易策略的转变。这才叫做审时度势，顺势而为，这才是一个理性的交易员该做的事情，而不是看到跌就做空，看到涨就做多，每一个阶段交易都要看随处的阶段而定。

4月即将收官，简单复盘下整个4月的走势以及对5月的前瞻：

4月前4周全部收阳，可谓多头大获全胜。本月起涨点是月线底部65000，总共上涨14500点空间左右，比3月涨幅11000点空间高出了3500点。所以4月7日我预计4月最高点一定会比3月高出几千点，现在回头看非常符合预期。这也是本月第一周我们就调整为以低多为主策略的依据支撑。

4月最高点定格在了3日线压力79500附近，离8w关口仅剩临门一脚。在上一周我判断btc 78850这个位置可能需要3次突破方可有效突破，昨天早上是第二次突破，依然止步于79500附近，所以周一晚只要美股不理想，还剩2天本月就结束，就没机会再冲了，只能等下周五非农发布后再冲。月底调整一下再蓄势待发。

5月多头依然会延续进攻新高点作为战略大方向，这符合周线级别超跌反弹的趋势。5月攻取的第一目标依然是3日线压力79500，突破后就是攻取80000上方第一个强压力位82000-83300，这里一般会磨1-2周，直到78800站稳为止再去攻取5日线压力85000和周线压力86000。86800是进攻月线中轨91000的跳板，这里站稳最高就看到9w。因此83000-86000区间是决定2026整个走向的大枢纽，多空会在这里展开决战。所以5月会很精彩。

很多死多头看到反弹一张口就是看10w、12w，你看我看到的点位有如此浮夸吗？路要一步一个脚印去走，不要好高骛远，在前进的路上既要保持激情，也要防范潜在的风险，做到进退自若。

SOL could still drop 70%
1. This bounce for SOL is weak; it's pretty much just sideways action. When it should rally, it doesn’t, and when it’s time to drop, it’ll drop hard.
2. The range between SOL 28-77 was a quick pump without sufficient accumulation. Once it effectively breaks below 77, it will likely slide down smoothly, heading straight for 28.

为什么5.19值得被纪念？

这一天，比特币当天振幅31.7%，暴跌14.38%，从最高4.3万多美元，直接砸到最低3万美元附近。

比特币跌了14个点，其他山寨币更惨，普遍跌超50%，很多直接腰斩，甚至跌70-80%。
因为跌得太猛、太快，之前又没有明显拉回预警，当天合约爆仓金额极其巨大。市场信心瞬间崩盘，引发大面积恐慌，大家纷纷割肉逃命。结果大量合约仓位直接被秒清零，损失非常惨重。

因为这一天跌幅大、爆仓多、伤的人多。所以5.19成了加密圈很多人心里永远忘不掉的惨痛记忆。

不少人辛苦几年，好不容易积累的资产，在这一天一夜之间全部归零，又得从头再来！

BTC is experiencing short-term consolidation, just as I predicted. Before the drop, it had a slight upward retracement, but the peak was a bit lower and didn't break the first high. It reached around 79,500 and then started to accelerate downwards. In the short term, we need to keep an eye on the support at 77,000. If it holds, there might be a chance for another upward retracement. If it breaks, we're looking at a downward trend.

未来一个月将多空反转
1.BTC连续反弹四周，已经进入8-8.6万套牢密集区间
2.资金费率从大幅负费率变为小幅负费率，贪婪恐慌指数从极度恐慌转为中性
3.HYPE钱包散户仓位从看空转为略微看涨，巨鲸从看涨转为犹豫
4.市场情绪从极空转为中性，只需再来一波加速上涨就能点燃市场，也将终结反弹行情

The altcoin sector has seen a slight dip in liquidity recently, and the number of moonshot coins isn't as frequent as before. The fundamentals are moderately improving, and there’s still some room for action. Right now, keep an eye on the gainers and losers boards, monitor the long/short ratio, look for short-term opportunities, and execute quick trades. Also, consider positioning in the yet-to-launch sector leaders like UNI and PEPE while waiting for them to take off.
LUMIA is starting to move, so you can hold on and set a trailing stop to secure profits. Keep an eye on ROBO and BREV; for more details, check out yesterday's coin analysis.
For long-term holds, consider OKB; it’s a value coin worth holding, especially with its ecosystem development.
Primary market info:
On-chain liquidity in the primary market is down, but ETH mainnet activity has seen a slight uptick lately, so keep tabs on the latest ETH mainnet updates.
The lobster phenomenon is a standout MEME, and with Binance backing it, consider a small stash for mid-term follow-up, targeting 5x or more. The consolidation has been a bit lengthy, so patience is key.

I've been feeling a bit lost lately, honestly not sure what to trade anymore.

SOL is just all high-stakes schemes or setups by shady groups; you can tell just by looking at the candlesticks. If you don't jump in, they keep pumping it, but as soon as you do, they start wrecking you.

BSC? Not a chance, not even a sliver of opportunity. The setups are just not taking off; it feels like no one's playing in the BSC market anymore, it's way too saturated.

ETH: Due to the Space Dog situation, all the hot money is flowing here lately, making BSC feel super cold and deserted. There's hardly anyone around, and without the heavy hitters leading the charge, retail traders aren't stepping in to drive prices up.

Right now, ETH has been pretty comfortable to trade. Aside from the gas fees being a bit steep and the speed being somewhat slow, everything else is within my comfort zone.

I've turned 0.5 ETH into 3 ETH in just about three days, and that's without me obsessively staring at the charts. Almost every day, some small gains pop up on the ETH chain.

As long as you do your homework and buy into the early-stage chips, just wait for the bloom to come. Usually, it starts at about 5x leverage.

Learn to spot where the hot money is, where the fish are biting, and then go fishing there.

It feels like we're in a dead period; it seems like no one's trading in the crypto space anymore... I even lack the motivation to update my Twitter.

Hoping for a super mega bullish run with a golden dog to turn things around.

The risk of chasing longs is increasing (high-level baiting).
Shorting from the left side also comes with risks; we can only dollar-cost average with low leverage.
In a bear market, we must complete the chip turnover and clear out the bulls.
The key is to break below the previous low (60000) and test the bottom again.
Only then can we truly see the bottom, establish a base, and transition from bear to bull.
The current rise is just a structural rebound, not the main uptrend of a bull market.
On the hourly chart, we have a standard bullish setup, but no clear top signal yet.
With no significant selling pressure, there is still some potential for slight upward movement.
However, the space is limited, and with the weekend approaching, we face high-level consolidation.
Key support: 76000 (strong support level for this phase).
Only if we break this support and the structure turns bearish (down - rebound - further decline) will it be a confirmed signal to short.

The rebound rally will end within a month
1. This is the strongest rebound in the bear market, not a return of the bull market; the time and space for this bounce are already nearing their end.
2. The rebound is expected to wrap up within a month, with the final bounce position between 80,000 and 90,000, and a key resistance zone around 83,000. An important long-term shorting opportunity will arise.

Today, $btc is taking a bit of a dip, but unexpectedly, $kas is holding relatively steady. I noticed some signs of ecosystem development earlier, so I've been keeping an eye on both the ecosystem and the native coin. Here's what I'm currently focused on:

1. Holding $kas is also why I've been paying close attention to the ecosystem.
2. Keeping track of the launchpad kas fun, which has tokens being monitored from the platform.
3. Currently holding the three tokens that have been launched: $sompi, $boobot, $jnso.

Why bring up the ecosystem again? It's been over 40 days since the first launch, and the price has remained quite stable. Just the day before yesterday, Gate announced direct Layer 2 news, and another project with a market cap of 3.5m has emerged, leading to some inferences:

- The community and foundation are actively working and pushing for ecosystem development.
- Even during tough infrastructure times, they’ve managed to maintain price stability, indicating strong community consensus. Of course, one could also argue that it’s being propped up by strong whales.

Currently, there aren't many projects to engage with, so I'm just holding my position.

Today's correction is quite different from the daily pullback that started on Saturday after last Friday's big pump. Today's retracement is merely a digestion and adjustment of yesterday's substantial gains, with basically no continuation. The main assessment is that 77000 is holding strong, and we should continue to make new highs, rather than just bouncing back today and then dipping below 77000 again tomorrow.

Buying on a dip is considered left-side trading, which definitely carries a higher risk compared to right-side trading. Right-side trading is all about waiting for stabilization and then making your move, while left-side trading goes against the current. Many people are not comfortable with left-side trading because they see a slight drop and panic, thinking it’s a bottomless pit, which leads them to chase shorts. They only feel brave enough to chase longs when they spot a rebound. This trading psychology is quite common, resulting in getting caught in low shorts or being wiped out, while missing out on rebounds and chasing highs, only to get stuck again. When there's a pullback, they often get wrecked too. So, if you don’t master a trading strategy that suits you and work on your trading psychology, you won't succeed. My principle is simple: if it’s within the daily timeframe, try to avoid shorting as much as possible; for anything above the daily timeframe, only short on the highs. For instance, from last November to this February, I was consistently shorting at the highs until the end of February when we dipped below 66666, at which point I gradually switched to low longs.

There’s no secret to left-side trading; it’s all about entering within your identified adjustment range (considering the price movement over the last 24 hours and observing Fibonacci retracements). The rest is about managing your position size and adjusting your take-profit points during rebounds. If you get in a bit too early, it’s okay to add to your position at the next support level or take a little profit. Especially when you’re trading trend positions, after buying on a dip, you need to be patient and hold for a take-profit at the previous high. If the previous high breaks, take profit at the new high.

Typically, after a big rally, when you enter on a dip, you won’t see an immediate huge pump; it’ll often hover a bit lower first. Before a rebound, there might be some fake moves on lower indicators to shake you out of your position. See the truth clearly and don’t panic. If you panic, you’ll lose your chips.

Sell more as BTC goes above 78000
1. On February 6th, I scooped up BTC at the first opportunity, predicting a rebound to above 78000 within 3 months. Now, both the timing and price have perfectly played out; the short stop-loss level is where I started selling.
2. From the sentiment and the chart, the rebound isn't over yet, with the final target likely between 80,000 and 90,000. Keep a close eye on the 83,000 level.

All the chips near the new high acceleration of btc have been cleared. I'm just afraid that after hitting the stop loss, it will start to come down. This wave may also be an acceleration brought about by the explosion of short positions, because most short sellers have their stop loss set near the previous high. Now that it has directly broken, it has brought about a wave of short squeezing. Next, we need to pay attention to the upper edge line position of 7.95w.

The broken short will not return
1. When everyone is blindly following the crowd, seeking the sword by carving the boat, and when there is a fake breakthrough at 78000, the BTC bullish structure has not changed at all and quietly recovers the decline
2. The next target is above 80,000, and 85,000 is also reasonable. These shorts are destined to become fuel and will turn into the driving force for accelerated growth. The stop-loss positions of these shorts are also where I gradually reduce my bullish positions.

Do you know why it's been all bearish news these past couple of days, but I'm only looking to long on the dips?

1. Yesterday, the 4-hour MACD flattened out at zero and opened upwards; no matter how much it dips, it just can't move lower;

2. The intraday retracement range is between the 24-hour high and low, which means it's between the Fibonacci levels of 0.50-0.618. This is a healthy pullback; only breaking below the 0.618 level would compromise support.

So the current market is pretty straightforward: "a pullback is just a long opportunity!"

Some people are afraid of falling, I can understand that. But being afraid of rising, my goodness, I really can't understand that. If you're afraid of a clear rebound, then what are you doing with short to medium-term trading? If you're afraid of falling when buying low, isn't it just about doing your defense well? Don't you also need to defend when you short? Can you really stay safe when there's a sudden surge? The reasoning is the same. Do whatever the market shows you; if you see a rebound every day and call it a trap, and when you see a drop you think of a waterfall, then you're not a candlestick trader, but a candlestick daydreamer.