币富日记-HTXD928

Why is it difficult to escape the top?
1. Before reaching the top, the market always circulates larger price targets and a hot sentiment. For example, the price of the pancake is expected to reach 10,000, and there have indeed been good changes in the fundamentals.
2. After surpassing the top, people feel that the wealth at the top still belongs to them, unwilling to let go, unable to look forward; similar to the mentality of holding onto contracts.
3. Even after surpassing the top for several months, various analysts, KOLs, and media still remain optimistic.
4. After the top, the market has already declined for several months, while the fundamental changes are improving. In other words, escaping the top requires a keen sense of market conditions, and people can easily be misled by positive fundamentals.
5. After surpassing the top, there have been multiple rebounds to new highs during the bull market. People can easily mistake the rebounds during the declines as a sign that the bull market has returned. In a repeated state of bulls returning, new lows are hit time and again.
6. Escaping the top involves judging the major cycle tops. This top is difficult to judge accurately, compounded by Federal Reserve policies and new situations from Wall Street institutions, leading to easy distortion and subjectivity in judgment.
7. Various indicators at the top, such as the 60-day increase, slope, level 1 market valuation, bubbles, 200-day investment cost lines, UTXO waves, etc., are all difficult to provide precise results for the top.
8. There is a lack of clear plans for selling and escaping the top. Due to excessive greed to catch the top, insufficient time is allocated for pre-determined sell-offs. Risk control is crucial; it is not necessary to chase the top but to operate within a certain range.

币安Alpha应该是有改一点新玩法，看了下昨晚的tge，领币扣的分有点变化了，之前是15分一次，现在是越早越贵，最早的30分，慢慢递减，这样也好，因为一般来说，开盘都是价格最高的时候，不过最近alpha的高点都不在第一天了，拿得住的话，后面收益更高

看了下 msx 最近上新的美股，都涨得还不错，底部上来都有利润，但是也需要等，不能第一时间上，我看了一眼我的余额，持仓的英伟达好像开始亏钱了。

$aster 的价格低于cz买入价很多了，相信大部分人买是因为觉得有cz支撑，现在看来cz支撑也撑不住了。举办的交易赛也争议挺大的，但是我感觉挺好的，毕竟如果真算广告费的话，肯定传播没这么广

前几天涨得很凶的小币，现在也在相继收网，这种币其实多空都难受，多了砸你，空了爆你，还要收你资金费，这种行情真的挺难玩的。 $beat $pinpin $jellyjelly $power $folks 我都空过，但是现在崩盘的时候我全没仓位了，根本拿不住。

From the weekly perspective, it doesn't really look like a head and shoulders top, because drawing the neckline like this is too slanted.

In this round of the bull market, DOGE did not break through the previous bull market high, so the upcoming bear market may fall below the previous bear market low, with the target possibly at the lower edge of the channel in the chart.

The main bodies in the cryptocurrency circle that guarantee profit
1. Market makers, providing liquidity
2. U traders, trading U for profit
3. Meme project parties, issuing coins to reap benefits
4. Major mainstream exchanges, providing services to earn fees

Therefore, after most players have channels, funds, and technology, they will develop towards the first three.

The rebound has not ended
1. The current market is like a startled bird; as soon as a bearish candle appears, a bunch of old traders predict an imminent crash, following the crowd
2. BTC80600 is a medium-term support that will not be effectively broken in the next month
3. The rebound will last until January, and when bottom-fishing on November 21, the BTC rebound target will be around 100,000, which has not changed

Should we buy the dip, hold on, or trade?

My own method is to divide the position into 3 parts:

1. Investment: can increase by more than 3-5 times in 3-5 years, but uncertain in 3-6 months
2. Speculation: can increase by 50% in 3-6 months, uncertain in the long term, sell to cash when reaching the target
3. Cash: including stablecoins, US Treasuries, NASDAQ, industry beta, can cash out at any time for living expenses

Every time I want to take action, I ask myself, which category does this action belong to?

Set the most suitable proportion for each part, for example, my BTC investment position has already reached its limit, so when I want to buy the dip I need to check if there is still room in the speculation position, if so, set a selling strategy while buying; if the speculation position is also full, it indicates that I should increase the cash proportion first.

Anything that doesn’t fit into the above 3 categories is being liquidated, and I won’t touch it again in the future; less is more.

The current secondary market for imitation products can be a starting point for a treasure hunt process with monthly and annual cycles:
Note:
1. Old projects transforming, new blooms on old trees;
2. New projects, popular and unproven tracks;
3. Must maintain a low market cap with sufficient growth potential;
4. For already listed projects:
① Observe the subsequent trends of tokens, reference the rhythm of popular projects during large cycles (monthly and annually),
② Observe whether the project team has continued actions;
5. New things, narrative + control, both are essential; lacking a narrative means unsustainable development, lacking control indicates insufficient financial strength.

The weekly trend of the pancake is very similar to the peak of the last bull market at the end of 2021:

1. After a similar one-sided surge, a sharp drop occurred. This situation is referred to as 'initial supply' in volume-price theory.

2. A similar second upward retest of the first high point formed a false breakout, with a high probability that the main force is frantically selling during the final surge.

3. After the false breakout at the top of the last bull market on a weekly level, the price first dropped by 38%. Currently, after this wave of false breakout, the first wave has dropped by 36%. The two amplitudes are quite similar.

The current position is likely a stage where retail investors are buying, and the main force is selling again. After the weekly level fluctuation ends, there is a high probability of continued downward movement!

From the perspective of wave theory, MSTR is in a downward trend wave of a five-wave structure that started in mid-July, currently in the fifth sub-wave phase.

Regarding the end time of the fifth sub-wave, the durations of the first and third sub-waves were 70 days and 55 days respectively. Assuming the duration of the fifth sub-wave is between 55-65 days, and it starts on December 9, then the end time should be in the first half of February.

The bottoming time for Bitcoin may be a week or two earlier, with a higher probability in late January.

Regarding the target for the fifth sub-wave of MSTR, based on wave theory calculations, the target is around 102. At that time, MSTR's mNAV will drop to around 0.8.

Price Second Dip
1. BTC has rebounded to 14,000 dollars and is beginning the second dip, which will not effectively break below the low point of 80,600. Instead, it will serve as a better wave low point.
2. The rebound will last until January, and the final price will reach 100,000.

熊市的几个特征：

1. 人与人对线事件会越来越多
2. 项目方、交易所公关事件愈加频繁
3. 大量内容博主，尝试 Web2
4. 市场频繁出现大厂裁员的消息
5. 预期大的项目，会二级垃一波大的
6. 但还是每天有巨鲸、机构囤币的消息
7. 神盘还是有，但涨幅窗口期越来越小

以上在 19、22 和 25 年 3 月都发生过
但有时这些都发生时，又是阶段底部信号。。

很多人认为四年一轮的熊牛周期定律已经被打破，但我并不认同这一观点。从月线级别以上的大趋势来看，10月中旬之后市场已经进入熊市。2022年从15600开始的反弹牛市已经结束，而不仅仅是阶段性结束。熊市并非意味着每天下跌，而是高点不断下移。大趋势一旦确立，任何因素都难以改变，只有当最高级别的MACD指标回到零轴或在零轴下方形成底部时，才可能慢慢反弹，开始新一轮牛市。这种周期性运行规律不是通过降息或者主力短期拉升就能改变的，就像万物都有其规律，冥冥之中自有定数。

预计下周末之前，市场可能会出现本月的最低点，也可能是2025年封顶126200后的最低点。无论本次低点是在78800还是74666，和11月出现的两个低点（88800、80600）类似，我认为这也是阶段性的底部，而不是熊市周期中的最低点。然而，这次抄底的机会可能会持续一个月左右。所以，前几天我提到的“这一段行情一上一下再下再上”相当于四个阶段。如果能抓住其中的两段，就有机会过个不错的年，甚至赚得不错。

比特币，以太坊，SOL，今日盘面解读

1：BTC 大饼早上又插针到了87500附近开始了反弹，这个位置刚好是上上周打了一次的低点，也就是说88000这个支撑还没正式破位，反弹最高又打到了90000附近没稳住，开始了小磨盘，我们策略本来有个多单想喊大家接，不彻底破位88000就看反弹一次，后面喊大家撤了，因为单子价格挂早了，不是挂的插针接，要是挂插针接就吃到了，还好撤了，不然给打笋了

目前大饼日内区间先看反弹压制90000，90500这里上不去继续看回踩，下方支撑关注89000，88000

2：ETH 二饼联动大饼插针到了3020附近开始了反弹，最高又反弹到了3150压制没稳住开始了小回踩，其实二饼在3000整数关口肯定短期不会那么快直接下去，目前已经试探了两次，因为大饼也没破位，大饼下去了二饼就会破3000关口，毕竟也摸了两次了

二饼上方压制3150，3180，3220，3250，下方支撑3080,3000

3：SOL 早上联动大饼插针到了127开始了反弹，最高弹到了133开始小回踩磨盘，目前磨在132，还算是在日内高点磨盘了，133刚好是压制，这里要突破还是要看大饼上不上，没有自己的独立行情，大级别还是偏空了

SOL上方压制133，137，141，145强压，下方支撑130，125，120这个支撑强一点，再下去就是110了

大盘走势总结，关注大饼反弹，如果日内一直不突破90500反弹建议高空为主，想低多的不回踩下来885-875不建议接多，二饼跟sol也是联动大饼操作

对BTC长中短线的观点
1.长线看处于大的下降趋势上半场，始于23年的上涨趋势已被终结，对应的回调将持续半年以上，跌幅50%以上
2.中线看目前处于下跌中继，将是一波2-3个月的反弹，反弹持续到1月，最终目标会在10万一带
3.短线看小时级多头结构被破坏，价格将二次探底，二探后将迎来强力反弹

本周宏观消息面：
周一晚间： 美联储两位大佬（米兰、威廉姆斯）先后发声，任何关于利率路径的暗示都将提前扰动市场。
周四凌晨： 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克讲话，为CPI数据预热
周四晚间21:30： 时公布CPI与初请失业金数据，双重冲击
CPI若低于预期（指向通胀快速降温） = 市场将坚信降息很快到来 ， 美元承压，流动性预期改善 ，这通常是加密等风险资产的燃料
CPI若高于预期（通胀依然顽固） 美元反弹，降息预期推迟 ，市场短期调整几乎不可避免
但中长期剧本几乎没变，降息周期虽会迟到，但不会缺席，流动性潮汐终将转向，这对加密市场是根本性利好
操作上：
本周在数据前，市场情绪可能趋于谨慎，保持一定仓位灵活性，准备好应对两种方向的波动，真正的趋势性行情，或许要等这份CPI数据落定后才能明朗

Comparison of Two BTC Bear Markets:

The decline adjustment from October 2021 to March 2022, at the weekly level, rebounded to the 0.618 position, and then initiated another wave of deep decline adjustment;

The decline adjustment from October 2025 to December 2025, at the weekly level, may rebound to the 0.618 position, which is around 98,000.

Currently, the BTC weekly MACD shows signs of bottoming out and moving upwards, the downward momentum may not be strong enough, and the price may rebound again to around 98,000.

Waiting for a breakthrough
BTC has been consolidating for almost 3 weeks, and the range of consolidation is getting smaller. The direction will be determined no later than next week. As long as it does not fall below 87600, it remains a perfect bullish structure. Once it effectively breaks through 94000, the price will head straight for 100000.

Judging the weakening of price momentum is actually not difficult; you just need to compare the performance of 'this wave' and 'the last wave' of increases.

During the upward process, the earliest change is usually not a decline, but rather that the price has stagnated at a similar position and cannot exceed the previous range.

When the bullish force is sufficient, each wave of advancement has several common characteristics: a significant push higher in the body, closing firmly above the previous high, and the distance between highs remains stable or even gradually widens.

Once the strength begins to weaken, these characteristics will change: the magnitude of the new high is noticeably shorter than the previous one, the closing after a breakout does not stabilize above the previous high, and the occurrence of upper shadows increases, indicating that the selling pressure encountered during the rise is getting larger.

These changes may seem subtle, but they are crucial; it means that the same buying power can no longer push out the previous gains.

As the price approaches the pressure zone, this phenomenon becomes more apparent: the upward space diminishes while the risk increases, naturally leading to fewer people willing to chase the high.

The result is that breakouts are no longer as decisive as in the early stages of the trend, the distance of the upward movement shortens, and the intervals between highs gradually narrow.

This does not necessarily indicate that the market is about to reverse, but it suggests that the strength of this trend is not as strong as before, and the winning rate and risk-reward ratio of continuing to chase higher will decline.