Key Takeaways
Bitcoin price trades below the 365-day moving average, signaling weakened trend support
Bitcoin ETF holdings fall by 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, showing reduced institutional interest
On-chain data shows slowing Bitcoin demand growth since October 2025
Bitcoin Price Weakens As Demand Slows
Bitcoin has remained under pressure after falling below its 365-day moving average near $98,172, a key long-term support. Analysts at CryptoQuant say Bitcoin demand growth dropped below trend in early October 2025, removing a major source of bullish momentum.
On-chain data shows apparent Bitcoin demand contracted through Q4 2025, reinforcing concerns about declining buying pressure. BTC currently trades near $88,350, well below its annual trend level.
ETF Outflows Signal Cooling Institutional Interest
The latest Bitcoin ETF update shows a sharp shift in behavior from large investors. Total BTC held in ETFs declined by about 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, according to CryptoQuant.
This marks a “sharp contrast” to Q4 2024, when ETFs accumulated aggressively following U.S. spot ETF approvals. Analysts say falling ETF balances reflect reduced institutional interest and weaker conviction.
Market Indicators Flash Bearish Signals
Perpetual futures funding rates have dropped to their lowest levels since December 2023, suggesting muted leverage demand and lower trader confidence. CryptoQuant views this as another confirmation of a developing bear cycle.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in Extreme Fear, scoring 20, while the Altcoin Season Index shows it is now Bitcoin Season with a reading of 17/100. These metrics indicate risk-off positioning across the broader crypto market.
Bitcoin VS. Gold Is Key Battleground
Bitcoin’s ratio against gold has fallen to around 20 ounces, a level historically linked to bull-bear transitions. Some analysts warn that losing this support could confirm a longer-term downtrend.
However, analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes a potential bullish divergence in the BTC/gold RSI, arguing Bitcoin may be undervalued while gold appears stretched. Weekly RSI near 29.5 signals conditions not seen in nearly three years.
Bitcoin Outlook in 2026: Caution Or Recovery
Outlooks for Bitcoin forecast 2026 remain divided. Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich says social sentiment lacks sufficient fear, leaving room for a drop toward $75,000. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer has suggested a deeper retracement toward $65,000.
In contrast, analysts like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expect 2026 to be an “up year,” citing potential rate cuts and renewed demand for digital assets. Much depends on macro policy shifts, ETF flows, and whether selling pressure stabilizes.
