The logic of the current transaction needs to be clarified:
BTC is operating within a 15-day moving average adjustment cycle, and the 10-day moving average adjustment has completed at zero this Thursday. The support level is between 84666-83800, so on Thursday, I suggested taking profit on short positions here and entering long positions. The MACD on the 15-day moving average has not yet returned to the zero axis, with support around 80666. Does this mean we need to wait for a pullback to 80666 or below to go long? Not necessarily. At the same time, there are also 12-hour and 1-day level pullbacks as well as a 2-day level pullback that could be effective. The high points for these three levels are 88800, 89400, and around 90850. Although they are not far apart, short positions need to be cautious of a possible upward impulse. Long positions should first focus on reaching these three points. Short positions need to pay attention to whether the resistance at 90750 is broken. 90850 is a key resistance level for reaching 9.3-9.4w (the golden ratio point of the 94555-84408 segment).
The current logic of the K-line market is as follows: Therefore, the difficulty of short-term trading this week and next week lies in the small upward trends amidst the major bearish trend, while the rebounds from the small trends are also brewing further adjustments. It wouldn't be entirely accurate to call it a choppy market because the significant drops completed on Wednesday and Thursday and the rebounds during the day the following day did not strictly follow the conventional Fibonacci retracement sequence, but rather followed a rhythm similar to falling 100, rebounding 120, dropping 140, and rebounding 120. If going long, risk control must be strengthened; 83000 is the bottom line for bulls and must not be broken. Meanwhile, short-term short positions should not be rushed, as it is not a one-sided downward trend; wait to enter near the resistance above after a rebound.
