When will the overall cryptocurrency market trend turn bullish? I believe we still need to use SOL as a wind vane. In the short to medium-term trends over the past two years, SOL's rebounds after corrections and the subsequent corrections after the rebounds have generally occurred ahead of BTC, and this time is no different. Currently, the MACD fast line of SOL's 15-day moving average has already returned to zero, while BTC only reached the zero line of the MACD on the 10-day moving average on Thursday.

A few days ago, I predicted that SOL would correct to around 118/117, and it just happened to dip to a low of 116.71. That evening, when I suggested going long here, someone asked if this was a bottom-fishing opportunity. I said this is just a bottom-fishing point in the short term, and after a rebound next week, the market will continue to explore new lows. The monthly and 45-day moving average levels indicate that the trend will still be dominated by bears in the first quarter of next year until the monthly MACD gives a stop-loss signal near the zero axis, so the low range of 110-102 in December-January is likely to be touched.

Some analysts say that in the first half of next year, SOL will correct to 75-50, but I can't see it going that low for now. At the very least, we need to wait for SOL to break below 100 twice and then rebound before it fails to stay above 120; only then will the space of 100-50 be opened. The extreme low point is the middle axis of the lower Bollinger band on the 45-day moving average: 80.25. Below 80 is considered deep bearish, and if it reaches that point, the corresponding price for BTC would be below 71000, which is still quite far from that point. The last week of December and the low points in January mainly depend on the acceleration of corrections on the 15 and 20-day moving averages, and one can only bottom-fish and not chase shorts.

Next week, the maximum pressure for SOL is 134, which is the highest point of the wave that came up from 116. Near 133.85, it would be a key point to go short, as the risk-reward ratio for shorting here is the highest in the short term. The next short point is around 131.5.