The Bitcoin network's hash rate has decreased by 4% in the last 30 days. It is the largest decrease in nearly two years.
At the same time, volatility has increased and the price has fallen, which means that many miners are now earning less. According to investment firm VanEck, this development may indicate that the market is reaching its bottom.
Bitcoin mining power is decreasing as weak price developments and shutdowns in China affect the network.
VanEck wrote in its Bitcoin ChainCheck report from mid-December 2025 that the 4% decrease in the network's hash rate is the largest since April 2024. The drop occurs during a difficult month for Bitcoin, when the price fell by about 9%.
Volatility increased at the same time, and the 30-day realized volatility rose above 45%. This is the highest level since April 2025.
"We usually expect the hash rate to decrease when the Bitcoin price falls sharply," wrote Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush in the report.
In addition to the price pressure, Bitcoin's hash rate was also affected by developments in China. BeInCrypto reported last week that approximately 400,000 machines were forced to shut down in Xinjiang Province.
The shutdown removed an estimated 1.3 GW of capacity and had a significant impact on the network. China's computing power decreased by about 100 exahash per second within 24 hours.
"This is likely due to electricity going to AI projects instead, and could remove up to 10% of the Bitcoin network's hash power," wrote the analysts.
At the same time, miners' economics have worsened due to Bitcoin's price development. According to VanEck, the threshold for profitable electricity price on a Bitmain S19 XP (model from 2022) has dropped from 0.12 USD in December 2024 to 0.077 USD in mid-December 2025, a decrease of 36%. Sigel and Bush also write:
"Despite low profitability, many continue to mine, as they believe in Bitcoin's future. We believe that up to 13 countries are now mining with support from their central banks to support the network's long-term hash rate."
Historical data shows a positive turnaround
Despite the pressure, VanEck says that the decreased hash rate could be a "bullish" sign. The report shows that Bitcoin's future returns have often been stronger when hash power has decreased, according to statistics since 2014.
BTC's 90-day forward return was positive about 65% of the time when the hash rate had decreased over the past 30 days. This was compared to 54% during periods when the hash rate increased.
The average for 180-day future returns was also higher with decreasing hash rate, about 20.5%, compared to 20.2% when the hash rate increased. The pattern also holds in the long term.
"During the 346 days since 2014, when the 90-day hash rate decreased, the 180-day future BTC return was positive (77%) of the time, with an average increase of (+72%). On other days, the return was positive (~61%) of the time and averaged (+48%)," wrote the analysts.
Technical patterns show support for bottom formation
Market analysts have also shown technical signs of a possible bottom. Experts like Ted Pillows have seen a 3-day positive divergence for Bitcoin, a pattern that has shown bottom levels the last two times.
"BTC 3D bullish divergence has now been confirmed. When it happened the last two times, Bitcoin reached a bottom," wrote Pillows.
It is still unclear whether Bitcoin will move upwards again. Right now, pressure remains on the cryptocurrency. BeInCrypto Markets data showed that Bitcoin traded for 88,066 USD at press time, down 1.01% in a day.
