Why do I insist on keeping the target at $94,000 when the big players are 'pinning' to clean up the bulls?
The pin bar pattern early this morning once again proved that the cryptocurrency market is never short of surprises, but these surprises often come at the cost of the stop losses of the majority.
When the clock struck midnight, Bitcoin suddenly launched a rapid surge, only to quickly retreat after approaching $92,000, leaving a long upper shadow. This textbook 'pin bar' pattern almost indicates that the main funds are conducting a pressure test at high levels.
If you listened to my analysis during the live broadcast, you should have successfully avoided this chase-the-high trap, and may even have gained profits through a small short position. After all, in this market, surviving is more important than making quick money.
01 Market Review: The Tug of War Behind High Stagnation
The market action this morning can be described as classic. Bitcoin first symbolically broke through $92,000, then quickly fell back to around $86,600. This high-level stagnation 'double top' pattern was the key signal I warned about in last night's live stream.
The current market shows that BTC has formed an initial support zone in the range of $84,600-86,700, while the real strong support is below $84,000. Each peak is an opportunity for bulls to take profits, rather than a chance to chase prices.
Ethereum is performing relatively weakly, always trailing behind Bitcoin. Its key support is in the range of $2,815-2,715, while the pressure point is around $3,170. For conservative players, it's best to hold on rather than trade frequently.
02 Technical Analysis: Divergence in 1-hour and 4-hour signals
From a technical indicator perspective, the market is at a delicate moment:
1-hour level: MACD shows a golden cross but with limited momentum, indicating a technical rebound repair indicator. The Bollinger Bands are starting to narrow, suggesting that volatility may temporarily decrease.
4-hour level: If BTC can hold the support at $84,600 and form a second bottom, it will provide an excellent mid-term entry point. The current focus is whether the price can build a new platform around $85,000.
A noteworthy detail is that despite the spike in the early morning, the futures funding rate did not significantly decline, indicating that market leverage remains relatively high. This means there may still be cleaning actions to follow.
03 Outlook Before the Spring Festival: A target range of $94,000-100,000 is expected
I remain cautiously optimistic about the market before the Spring Festival. BTC is very likely to test the large range of $94,000-100,000 again, but the path will be winding.
The key resistance range is between $92,000 and $95,000, which is also near last year's historical high psychological resistance zone. A real breakthrough requires a sustained increase in trading volume; otherwise, a false breakout may occur.
Ethereum needs to break through the resistance at $3,150 to open up upward space. Compared to Bitcoin, it requires more fundamental catalysts, such as sustained inflows from ETF funds or the recovery of the DeFi ecosystem.
04 Trading Strategy: Patiently wait for a second bottom opportunity
Based on the current analysis, I have adjusted today's operational suggestions:
BTC: Cancel the previously set orders and switch to intraday monitoring. If the price pulls back to the range of $84,600-85,000 and shows signs of stabilization, a light long position can be attempted, targeting $88,000.
ETH: Ambush long positions in the range of $2,850-2,800, with a stop-loss set below $2,750. High-frequency players can capture small range fluctuations, but ordinary investors are better off waiting for clearer signals.
Position management is key; it is recommended to keep the total position controlled within 2 to avoid being washed out in a volatile market. Remember, the goal of the big players is always to make the majority make mistakes.
Every spike is a way for the market to communicate with us. As the Spring Festival approaches, changes in liquidity may exacerbate market volatility but will also create more opportunities. I still believe that BTC is likely to test the area above $94,000 before the Spring Festival, but the journey will not be smooth.
The market never lacks opportunities, only patience. Stay calm, control your fingers, and wait for your best hitting point. In this market where most people are losing, surviving longer is victory.
Feel free to share your trading insights in the comments; let's navigate through the bull and bear markets together!
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