BTC firmly holds at $88,000, yet I see these overlooked risk signals!
The market always sprouts in despair, rises in hesitation, and the current moment is the most critical 'hesitation period.'
The performance of Bitcoin this weekend has relieved many people. After surging to $89,000 on Friday, it has firmly stood above the support level of $88,000, reversing the previous trend of 'surge and then drop.' What’s even more encouraging is that this rebound is accompanied by a synchronized recovery of global risk assets, with leading AI stocks in the U.S. rebounding strongly, and market sentiment is quietly shifting.
After the interest rate hike in Japan, panic sentiment has obviously eased. But does this mean that a bull market is about to restart? I have sorted out the current market's bullish and bearish factors and found some key signals that are overlooked by most investors.
01 Technical Analysis: Details Reveal the Truth
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently at the end of a converging triangle pattern, with $88,000 to $90,000 forming the core oscillation range recently. What is different this time is that trading volume continues to shrink during the pullback, indicating that selling pressure is weakening.
I observed a key detail: Bitcoin's price is still running below the 50-day moving average, but the momentum indicator RSI has recovered from the oversold region to a neutral level. What does this mean? The market has gained a valuable repair window, leaving room for subsequent directional choices.
Ethereum's performance is also reassuring; it successfully held the psychological barrier of $3,000, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has risen above 0.034. This is usually a leading indicator of altcoin season, and some funds have begun to position in high-quality DeFi and platform tokens.
02 Macroeconomic Environment: Warm Winds Blowing but Hidden Secrets
At the macro level, warm winds are indeed blowing: the Trump administration has preemptively initiated easing expectations, and a series of tax refund and subsidy policies are expected to stimulate market liquidity. The competition for the new chair of the Federal Reserve has heated up, with the current market's favorable order of expectation being Hassett > Waller > Waller.
But there is a key point that most investors overlook: regardless of who takes office, a shift in monetary policy takes time. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates next month is still as high as 73.4%. Market liquidity will not flood overnight.
More importantly, a global interest rate cut trend has begun. Central banks in Russia, the UK, Mexico, and Chile have announced interest rate cuts one after another; this environment will ultimately prompt funds to seek higher-yielding assets.
03 Funding Landscape: Institutions Quietly Positioning, Retail Investors Hesitant
There have been subtle changes in the funding landscape. The outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs has continued to ease, and the outflow ratio of Grayscale's GBTC has further declined, indicating that the most pressing institutional selling pressure has been significantly released.
Meanwhile, institutions are net purchasing approximately 1,755 BTC daily, while the daily newly mined amount post-halving is only about 900 BTC, leading to a persistent net shortage. This structural supply-demand imbalance serves as invisible support for the market.
However, retail investors are still generally in a loss state. Bloomberg's year-end review indicates that the keyword for the crypto market in 2025 is 'retail investors facing losses at year-end.' The combination of high leverage and rapid drawdowns has forced many investors to exit passively.
04 Risk Warning: These Signals Should Not Be Ignored
Amidst the optimism, I have identified several overlooked risk signals:
First, Friday will witness the largest Bitcoin options expiration in history, with a nominal value of up to $24 billion. Both bulls and bears are fiercely contesting key strike prices like $100,000 (call) and $85,000 (put). This could lead to increased price volatility around the weekend.
Secondly, pro-crypto legislator Lummis announced she will not seek re-election, which is a negative for crypto political resources. Although there is still more than a year of buffer period, the uncertainty at the policy support level has increased.
The key point is that the current market rise is mainly driven by increased leverage in the futures market, rather than solid spot demand. Once prices pull back, highly leveraged long positions may face concentrated liquidation risks.
05 Trading Strategy: Finding Certainty Amid Uncertainty
In the face of the current market, my strategy is:
Maintain a reasonable position, neither blindly chasing highs nor easily shorting. Adopt a high sell-low buy strategy within the $88,000-$92,000 range.
Focus on strong tracks, such as infrastructure projects with actual cash flow, decentralized trading platforms, and high-quality platform tokens. The market is highly structured, and assets outside the mainstream narrative find it difficult to perform.
Reduce trading frequency and avoid heavy positions before key events (such as options expiration). The market needs time to digest long and short factors; patience is more effective than frequent trading.
How will the future market play out? I believe the key lies in two points: whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $90,000 during U.S. trading hours, and the market's directional choice after the massive options expiration on Friday. Before this, the market is likely to continue oscillating.
The market is repairing, but opportunities are only concentrated in a few tracks. If you miss the rhythm, the sensation is still a bear market. At this turning point in the market, patience is more important than courage.
Do you think Bitcoin can break the key resistance of $90,000 this week? Feel free to share your views in the comments!
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