Bitcoin has fallen 22.54% during this quarter, which is the largest quarterly drop since 2018. With less than 10 days left in the year, it now seems unlikely that Bitcoin will reach the high price levels that many analysts had expected.
Market experts are now reassessing short-term expectations. They explain how Bitcoin could finish the year and what 2026 could mean for the asset.
Experts mark important levels for Bitcoin as the markets head towards the end of the year
After the peak in October, Bitcoin has faced headwinds. The asset has closed the last two months with losses, according to Coinglass data.
In October, the value dropped by 3.69%, and in November, it went down another 17.67%. So far this month, Bitcoin has decreased by 2.31%.
The cryptocurrency has struggled to get above the level of 90,000 USD. Bitcoin is now trading at prices below the start of the year. Therefore, weaker demand, reduced inflows to the spot ETF, and sales from smart investors increase the risks for Bitcoin.
Selling pressure has continued in recent days, and Bitcoin has fallen another 1.8% in the last 24 hours. Right now, it is trading at 87,183 USD.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin is “stuck in a tight and pressured trading zone.” The complex macro situation is making it difficult for Bitcoin to regain momentum below 90,000 USD, as liquidity decreases and risk-taking becomes lower.
He stated that buyers have defended the support at 85,000 USD. However, they have not succeeded in breaking through the strong selling pressure at the start of the year around 93,000 USD.
Options market data indicates a tug-of-war between the players. Put options are accumulating around 85,000 USD, while call options exist between 100,000 and 120,000 USD.
According to Youssef, upcoming options expirations, new data about a potential U.S. government shutdown, and the Fed's liquidity injection of 6.8 billion USD could create temporary concern. However, the market has not yet chosen a direction.
“Until Bitcoin clearly breaks above 93,000 USD or loses the important support at 85,000 USD, BTC is likely to continue moving within this range and be volatile as the year-end approaches,” he said.
The CEO explained that despite a drop of over 30% from the peak in October, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have not decreased more than 5%. This shows that institutional investors are mostly holding onto their assets during the downturn.
He noted that most of the sales come from retail investors, particularly those trading short-term or with leverage. Youssef points to 85,000 USD as an important level to watch as 2025 approaches its end.
A breakout below this level could increase the risk of a larger drop towards demand at 73,000 USD.
“If the price breaks the support, institutional investors may need to take positions as the price approaches their average cost of around 80,000 USD. Bitcoin must reclaim 94,000 USD to recover and approach previous peak levels,” predicts Youssef.
Bitcoin's outlook for 2026
At the same time, Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, pointed out that the end of this year has become one of the toughest periods for cryptocurrencies in recent years. He mentioned year-on-year weakness, continued high valuations, and rising interest in more cautious investments such as U.S. Treasury bonds.
Ehsani added that market liquidity is still limited. At the same time, more and more institutional investors are choosing to wait and focus on protecting their capital.
Furthermore, Ehsani explained that the current downturn shows that the market is fragile and still sensitive to panic selling. He argues that there are only two reasonable explanations for this.
Firstly, one or more large players such as funds, banks, or even states, can prepare for large purchases.
“In that case, the price decline is likely artificial, and the price can recover after temporary weakness.”
Alternatively, the market may be oversaturated. The weaker dollar, caused by increasing U.S. national debt, has reduced demand for cryptocurrencies as high-risk investments.
“A trend that has become clearer due to the Federal Reserve's policy. In this case, the cryptocurrency market may need more than a year to recover,” he said.
The CEO also predicted that Bitcoin could reach new price records as early as the first half of 2026, and that the price may return to the range of 100,000–120,000 USD in the second quarter.
”A new historical price record may come as early as the first half of 2026, with the price expected to return to the range of 100,000–120,000 USD in the second quarter. Historically, the first months of the year have not been so eventful, as traders often wait while the market seeks new growth opportunities and drivers,” he said.
VALR's CEO emphasized that the decisive factors next year will be the degree of institutional usage, regulations in the USA and globally, as well as the macroeconomic conditions in the world's largest economies.
