$6.8 billion bet on direction, I share my operating thoughts.
The market is frighteningly quiet; both bulls and bears are waiting for the other to show their cards first.
The current Bitcoin price fluctuates between $86,000 and $90,000. It is hard to tell whether this is the calm before the storm or hesitation before the funds choose a direction. Last night, the price tested the support level of $85,000 again, and although it quickly rebounded to around $88,000, this up-and-down movement makes me even more cautious.
I observed two key signals: first, long-term holders (LTH) have begun selling Bitcoin to short-term holders (STH), marking one of the most intense sell-offs in five years; second, the amount of open futures contracts is nearing $58.8 billion, indicating that a large amount of capital is stockpiling ammunition, which suggests that future volatility may increase.
Why is the market so weak?
The recent drop appears to be influenced by 'hawkish rate cuts' and U.S. inflation data, but the fundamental reason is still that there are issues with the internal structure of the market.
Early players are cashing out. Data shows that since the beginning of 2023, at least 1.6 million bitcoins that have not been moved for more than two years have decreased, worth about $140 billion. In just 2025, nearly $300 billion worth of bitcoins that have been dormant for over a year will re-enter circulation. These 'old money' choices to sell at the current position clearly do not indicate optimism for short-term trends.
However, the buying force is weakening. The capital flow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has turned negative, and institutions are showing a profit-taking and wait-and-see attitude. This is like more sellers and fewer buyers appearing in the market, making price pressure inevitable.
I pay special attention to the $86,000 level; it is not only a key support recently but also near the institutional cost line. If it effectively breaks below, it may trigger a chain stop-loss, dropping to $80,000 or even $78,000.
What hopes do the bulls have?
Although the situation is not optimistic, there are still some positive factors in the market.
The institutional bottom warehouse is still holding firm. MicroStrategy spent $980 million again from December 8 to 14 to buy 10,645 bitcoins, with an average cost of about $74,972. This 'smart money' has increased its positions around $85,000, at least indicating that they believe the long-term value remains.
The technical indicators show a demand for a rebound after overselling. The MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart has shown a bottom divergence signal, and the short-term bullish momentum has somewhat recovered. Although this is not enough to reverse the trend, it may trigger a wave of technical rebound.
Seasonal factors may also play a role. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often experiences a so-called 'Christmas rally' from late December to early January, but this year AI models indicate a probability of occurrence between only 30% and 55%, with a more likely moderate rise rather than a strong surge.
My operational strategy
In the current market environment, I adopt the strategy of 'small position testing, increasing at key levels.'
Position management: I am currently keeping about 30% position, leaving enough bullets. Bitcoin can fluctuate up to $10,000 in a single day, and a full position operation can lead to liquidation with just one spike.
Key level: I see $83,000-$85,000 as the first line of defense; if it breaks below, I will reduce my position to 20%; only when it breaks through $92,000 with volume will I consider increasing my position.
Sentiment indicator: I pay special attention to the Fear and Greed Index; the current market sentiment is in a neutral to fearful zone. When extreme fear appears, it is often a good time to build positions in batches.
For me, now is not the time to pursue huge profits, but rather a stage to preserve strength and wait for clear signals. The market will not remain sideways forever; a change is imminent.
Summary and Reminder
Bitcoin is at a turning point, shifting from 'corporate buying' to 'ETF fund-driven' capital structure. This process will inevitably come with growing pains and high volatility.
In the short term, $85,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, with resistance above in the $92,000-$94,700 range. My personal judgment is that until we effectively break above $92,000, the market will remain biased towards downward movement.
If you ask me whether I dare to bottom-fish now, my answer is: a small bet for fun, a big bet harms the body. It is more important to maintain patience than to act blindly before the trend is clear.
Don't forget that the market has risks. This article is just my personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Do you think $85,000 is the bottom? Feel free to share your views in the comments!
Disclaimer: The above content is only personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please invest cautiously and take your own risks.
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