The Bitcoin price (BTC) has dropped nearly 1% again today, continuing the broader downward trend. This month, the price has already fallen by 3.6%. However, 2 key metrics now indicate a decrease in selling pressure.
Still, some analysts warn that purchasing power remains weak, making a significant price increase unlikely in the short term.
Key metrics show a decrease in Bitcoin selling pressure.
According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric has significantly decreased. CDD measures, in short, how long Bitcoin has not been spent before it is moved again.
When older coins are moved, more coin days are destroyed. This often indicates distribution by long-term holders. High CDD levels usually coincide with selling pressure from these investors, while lower values indicate that long-term holders are holding onto their coins.
“We are now more than a month past the major BTC move from Coinbase. As a result, all average data is gradually returning to normal values. When we look at Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), we clearly see a sharp decline after that moment. What is particularly interesting is that this decrease is now well below the previous peak level,” wrote Darkfost.
According to the analyst, this change shows that the activity of long-term holders is decreasing. Bitcoin is being moved less frequently by older wallets. Darkfost indicated that this development could impact the broader market.
“This decline in CDD is positive, as LTHs remain the largest potential source of selling pressure, owning the majority of the total supply.”
The analyst also emphasized that the ongoing decrease in selling pressure from long-term holders lowers overall market pressure and, if this trend continues, could contribute to forming a market bottom.
Another sign comes from the flow of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since the beginning of November, the 30-day moving average (30D-SMA) of net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs has remained negative, indicating ongoing net outflows.
However, the magnitude of those negative values has gradually decreased. The 30D-SMA is now trending towards zero, suggesting that ETF outflows are less compared to previous levels.
Data from SoSoValue confirm this trend. On December 15, total net outflows amounted to $357.69 million. This decreased to $277.09 million on December 16 and $161.32 million on December 18.
The outflows further decreased to $158.25 million on December 19 and $142.19 million on December 22. Nevertheless, it is important to note that while the daily amounts are smaller, this does not yet confirm a clear change in direction.
Meanwhile, analysts from 10x Research report that market conditions are changing. The company, which has been bearish since October, notes that changes are occurring in derivatives, ETFs, and technical signals.
“After being bearish, this is the day and the exact hour we will buy Bitcoin. The largest Bitcoin options expiration ever is approaching, with strikes and open interest showing where stress and opportunities are building up. At the same time, previous patterns at the end of the year indicate that periods of extreme caution can quietly turn into sharp GDP reversals once calendars and risk budgets are reset. The technical situation is also changing, indicating that the balance between exhaustion downwards and options opportunities upwards is becoming increasingly nuanced,” the post states.
Despite these signals, a possible rally seems plausible only with a stronger and more stable return of demand. BeInCrypto reported that stablecoin reserves on large exchanges have significantly decreased, with a capital outflow of nearly $1.9 billion in the past 30 days.
This decline indicates less immediate purchasing power and ongoing caution among market participants. Moreover, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju notes that a recovery in market sentiment may take several months.
