Tom Lee recently stated that the Bitcoin price could still reach above $100,000 before 2025 is over. This is a bold statement, especially now that the Bitcoin price is moving sideways and the momentum seems weak. At first glance, the market does not seem ready for it. Large cash flows are decreasing, long-term holders are selling, and the price continues to move sideways.
But Bitcoin has one route left that could make Lee's expectation possible. No new purchases are needed for this. It all comes down to the positions in the market.
Big money and conviction holders remain a headwind
The first problem with Tom Lee’s Bitcoin price expectation, discussed on CNBC, relates to capital flows.
The Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, which measures whether a lot of capital is flowing in or out of the market, remains weak. Between December 17 and 23, the Bitcoin price rose slightly, but the CMF declined further. This is a bearish signal. It shows that large players are reducing their positions while the price remains stable.
The CMF metric also fell sharply after December 21, by more than 200%. Then there was a recovery of about 68%. This recovery seems positive, but the CMF remains below zero. This means that capital inflow is still weak.
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The second headwind comes from long-term holders. These are wallets that usually sell late, not early.
In the past month, the net position change of long-term holders has been strongly negative. On November 23, long-term holders sold about 97,800 BTC per day. On December 23, that number had risen to nearly 279,000 BTC sold in one day. That is an increase of 185%.
That is a huge increase in selling by holders with high conviction. If both the big money and long-term holders are negative, it becomes difficult to achieve a sustained rise.
The only way Bitcoin can still reach $100,000
Despite this headwind, Bitcoin is not completely without options. But the route depends on an unexpected force.
The market is heavily focused on shorts.
Looking at the 30-day liquidation heatmap, you can see that the total short liquidation leverage stands around $3.41 billion. The long liquidation leverage is about $2.14 billion. This means that more than 60% of the leverage is betting on a price drop.
This is important because even if buying pressure remains weak, the price can rise due to forced liquidations, as seen before. Simply put, Bitcoin doesn't need new buyers. The shorts need to be wrong.
A sharp rise would force short positions to close, which automatically generates buy orders. Those purchases could then lead to more liquidations, even if underlying demand remains low.
This is now the only realistic scenario for a rapid upward movement. Also, the largest portion of the liquidation cluster of shorts lies between $88,390 and $96,070. It remains to be seen whether the BTC price will reach that area.
Bitcoin price levels that determine whether Tom Lee is right
For a short squeeze, Bitcoin needs to overcome certain levels.
The first zone lies around $91,220. If the price stays above here for a long time, short positions with little leverage will be liquidated. That alone gives short-term momentum a boost.
But the real turning point lies at $97,820. This level has often been a ceiling since mid-November and coincides with the largest short liquidation cluster. A breakthrough above this level puts most of the $3.41 billion in short leverage under pressure.
If such a cascade occurs, Bitcoin could quickly move towards the psychological level of $100,380 without strong capital inflow or support from long-term holders. But the risk remains clearly present.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $91,220 and continues to move sideways, the weakness of the CMF and selling by long-term holders will prevail. In that case, there will be no short squeeze, and Tom Lee’s Bitcoin price expectation will remain out of reach. For now, Bitcoin is stuck between convincing selling and leveraged positions.
The prediction depends on one thing: whether shorts are forced to close their positions.
