Barclays slightly raised its forecast for US GDP growth in Q4 to 2.0% (an increase of about 0.3 percentage points), stating that the Fed will view the unexpected increase in Q3 GDP as a signal that underlying demand remains strong.
The research report from the Barclays economists highlights that consumption continues to expand, although some volatile items such as net exports may exaggerate the overall growth picture.
MAIN CONTENT
The Fed may see the rapid increase in U.S. GDP in Q3 as a sign of strong underlying demand.
Expanded consumption shows resilience, even though net exports are volatile.
Barclays raised its Q4 GDP forecast (YoY) to 2.0%, an increase of about 0.3 percentage points.
What does the Fed perceive from the acceleration of GDP in Q3?
Barclays believes the Fed is likely to view the rapid increase in U.S. GDP in Q3 as a signal that underlying demand remains strong.
In Barclays' assessment, some components with strong fluctuations, such as net exports, may exaggerate the overall growth momentum, making the overall picture appear hotter than reality in the short term.
However, the main support emphasized is that consumer spending continues to expand. According to Barclays, this is important evidence that shows the underlying resilience of the economy, rather than just stemming from temporary factors.
Q4 GDP forecast and outlook for the first half of 2025
Barclays has raised its annual (YoY) U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q4 to 2.0%, an increase of about 0.3 percentage points.
The report notes that growth may be volatile in the first half of 2025. Nevertheless, Barclays observes that by the end of the year, total demand has accumulated significant momentum, laying the foundation for continued growth trajectory.
With the cryptocurrency market, the core argument lies in the expectation that the Fed will monitor the strength of underlying demand, especially consumption, when assessing inflation risks and policy direction in the coming quarters.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/barclays-nang-du-bao-gdp-my-quy-iv/
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