By the end of the year, Bitcoin stubbornly holds around $87,000. The picture looks calm, but behind this stability lies not randomness and not news. In the crypto community, it is believed that the market is constrained due to the huge volume of options that literally keep the price within a tight range.
Currently, Bitcoin's movement is largely determined not by people's emotions, but by hedging mechanics and the work of algorithms. We explain why everything could change on December 26.
Where the conditional "Floor" and "Ceiling" are
Currently, there are two key levels in the market that essentially create boundaries for movement.
The "Floor" is located around $85,000. At this level, a large volume of put options is concentrated. When the price approaches this zone, dealers start buying Bitcoin to protect their positions. As a result, declines become limited and the market bounces back up.
The "Ceiling" is located around $90,000. In this zone, call options are concentrated, which causes dealers to start selling Bitcoin as the price rises. Pressure from above increases, and upward movement slows down.
This forms a narrow price "corridor" and a sense that the market seems to have hit invisible walls.
Currently, a simple and quite cold logic of the options market is at work. As the price rises, dealers are forced to sell, and as it falls, they buy. This mechanism dampens volatility and prevents the price from developing in one direction. It results in a neat but somewhat nervous "stability," where movement seems present, but breakthroughs do not occur.
On December 26, 2025, an important event is expected in the market — a huge volume of options worth about $300 million is set to expire. The contracts form a so-called gamma load (gamma is an indicator in options that forces dealers to actively hedge, thus keeping the price within a range). Approximately 58.2% of this entire gamma structure will disappear in one day. After that, most artificial restrictions will vanish, and the market will be able to move more freely.
While expiration has not yet occurred, market participants are closely watching the zone near $88,925. A breakout and consolidation above this level could significantly change dealer behavior. Instead of restraining movement, strengthening may begin. Then growth could accelerate, making the $90,000 range look less insurmountable, and the market could aim for more ambitious levels, up to targets around $100,000.
Conclusion
Currently, Bitcoin is held in a range of about $85,000 to $90,000 due to the structure of the options market. Volatility is suppressed, and movement looks restrained and careful. However, on December 26, the structure holding the price may weaken. After that, the market is quite capable of breathing more freely and showing sharper movements.
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