📉 BTC/USDT Analysis - Asia Session Update

Market conditions remain tough. BTC failed to rebound and hold at critical support.

🔍 Key Points:

· Price: Still pressured in the area of $89.2k - $89.3k

· Trend: All EMAs (20, 50, 200) above price = bearish structure intact

· Momentum: RSI oversold (~30), MACD negative → selling pressure still exists

· Volume: High when falling, low when rising → weak buying interest

🎯 Important Levels Today:

· Resistance: $90,000 (psychological) → $90,700 (bearish confirmation)

· Critical Support: **$89,250** → if broken, target $88,000 - $87,600

· Invalidation: Close above $92,300 (difficult at this time)

📊 Worrisome Derivative Data:

· Funding rate still positive (0.0077%) → too many longs that haven't liquidated

· Consistent negative CVD → more sell pressure

· Large long liquidations yesterday → continuation possible

⚡ Probable Scenarios:

1. Base Case (70%): Small rally to $90.0k - $90.5k → rejected → retest $89.250 → breaks down

2. Bull Case (20%): Strong hold at $89.250 + reversal pattern → rally to $91.2k

3. Breakdown (10%): Directly breaks $89.250 without bounce → fast move to $88k

🛡️ Trading Plan:

· Bias: Remain bearish until close above $92.3k

· Short Entry: $90.500 - $90.800 with rejection confirmation (pinbar, high volume)

· Long Entry: AVOID for now. Wait for confirmed reversal at $89.250 + break $91.000

· No Trade Zone: $89.250 - $90.000 (choppy, high risk)

⏰ Timeline: Short setup likely to form within the next 24 hours if there is a rally. Breakdown can happen anytime.

📌 In Summary:

The market is still in bear's grip. Don't FOMO buy at weak support. Wait for clear confirmation. Strict risk management!

#BTC #Bitcoin #TradingAnalysis #Crypto #bearish #BTC走势分析

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