看不懂的sol

December US stock YouTube blogger report card!

This weekend, let's refresh our minds, eliminate the Beta returns of the market,
focusing on finding quality bloggers who can provide Alpha (excess returns).

Backtesting rules:
Buy at the opening price on the next trading day, hold for 7 trading days, no take profit or stop loss.
The core metric is Alpha (individual stock return - SPX return):
Bullish outperforming the market counts as correct ✅,
Bearish underperforming the market counts as correct ✅.

📊 December Comprehensive Ranking TOP 5:
🥇 StatementDog - 82.35% (28 wins/6 losses)
🥈 Morningstar - 71.88% (23 wins/9 losses)
🥉 Money or Life US Stock Channel - 69.57% (16 wins/7 losses)
4️⃣ Investment TALK - 66.67% (8 wins/4 losses)
5️⃣ Barron's - 63.16% (12 wins/7 losses)

📈 Bullish Ranking TOP 3:
🥇 StatementDog - 81.25% (26 wins/6 losses)
🥈 Money or Life US Stock Channel - 72.73% (16 wins/6 losses)
🥉 Morningstar - 71.88% (23 wins/9 losses)

📉 Bearish Ranking TOP 3:
🥇 NaNa Talks US Stocks - 91.67% (11 wins/1 loss)
🥈 FX168 US Stock Market - 69.23% (9 wins/4 losses)

🥉 Newton Senior - 66.67% (8 wins/4 losses)

If you brothers have other treasure bloggers you are following, feel free to leave a message in the comments, and we will include them in the next blogger report card!

One chart to understand: The full chain of the AI Agent track!!

Why talk about AI? There are several angles worth considering: Although the market performed well in 2019, its intensity is incomparable to this year.

Perhaps there is a more optimistic explanation - the scale of the last market cycle was far less than this one. This AI bull market is larger in size, to the extent that the appetizer stage is comparable to the main rising wave of previous bull markets.

After all, many believe that AI is the largest market in human history.

Because once the narrative of 'AI + robots' theoretically runs through, it means unlimited resources and wealth.

From this perspective, this market cycle may be a significant leap for humanity in the pursuit of self-liberation, making the exaggerated scale of the market completely understandable.

After all, who would have thought that silver could break all historical limits in just a few months?

Musk predicts that perhaps in the near future, money will become meaningless.

This may be his ultimate vision: Humanity, supported by silicon-based life robots, will achieve the transcendence of the entire race for the first time. At that time, money will lose its original meaning in individual lives, and the division of resources and power may switch to new measurement dimensions.

In such a grand vision, the imagination space for AI is undoubtedly infinite.

Regarding the market in 2026, I actually mentioned it multiple times at the end of last year.

As for the U.S. stock market, I believe next year will be a year of significant index returns, specifically manifested in giants like M7 that will generate excess returns.

One chart to understand: How can the United States dominate the world?

There are currently over 190 countries in the world,

The United States is the strongest nation among all countries in today's world,

Undoubtedly the 'top player',

For a long time, the global order will still be dominated by the United States.

Strong military power, advanced technology, developed economy, advanced healthcare, world-class education...

However, the United States has been around for less than 300 years since its founding in 1776.

How can the U.S. have risen from a British colony to become the world's number one? The reasons behind this are worth deep reflection.

The strength of any nation is not due to how high the ruling class's capabilities are, but rather how many elites are willing to go to that country.

Sergey Brin, one of the founders of Google, was born in Moscow, Russia.

Andrew Viterbi, one of the founders of Qualcomm, was born in Italy!

Elon Musk, one of the founders of Tesla, was born in South Africa.

Jensen Huang, founder of NVIDIA, was born in Taiwan, China.

Jerry Yang, founder of Yahoo!, was born in Taiwan, China.

Sue Wing, the leader of AMD, was born in Taiwan, China.

Steve Chen, founder of YouTube *, was born in Taiwan, China.

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Sam Altman, founder of OpenAI (dropped out of university, couldn't find a good job in China)

Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook (dropped out of university, couldn't find a good job in China)

Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft (dropped out of university, couldn't find a good job in China)

Larry Ellison, founder of Oracle (did not obtain a university degree, couldn't find a good job in China)

Steve Jobs, founder of Apple (dropped out of university, couldn't find a good job in China)

Michael Dell, founder of Dell (dropped out of university, couldn't find a good job in China)

Thomas J. Watson, founder of IBM (did not complete high school, second-generation immigrant)

The Stupidity Rule of Having 300,000 in Savings!!

The poorer ordinary people are, the more they need to understand money.

In economics, there's a so-called '300,000 Savings Rule'—for most people, 300,000 is the ceiling of savings.

This doesn't mean you can only earn this much in your lifetime.

Rather, once your savings reach 300,000, you're most likely to lose your composure, and various 'middle-class scalp harvesters' will start targeting you.

Impulsive spending, blind stock investments, buying air coins recklessly, following trends to buy cars, rushing into opening a business... After all this折腾, your savings vanish, leaving only a pile of lessons.

This isn't about money—it's a mental trap.

This amount makes you mistakenly believe you've crossed into a new social class, while your understanding may not have caught up.

Of course, this doesn't mean you should only save and never spend or invest. Rather, it's a sincere reminder: always stay rational.

Any major decision should be based on sufficient knowledge and planning, not just because you happen to have 300,000 in the bank.

Remember, keeping what you have is harder than earning it. Showing off is the prelude to falling back into poverty, while caution is the beginning of long-term growth.

Do you agree? When you reach 300,000 in savings, what did you do—or plan to do?

One chart to understand: How big is the wealth gap in China? Is there a connection between education and wealth?

In fact, society is like a giant sieve: it filters out the foolish through cognition, the poor through resources, and the honest through rules.

The wealth gap in China has shown clear characteristics of extreme polarization, structural imbalance, and intergenerational entrenchment.

Highly concentrated wealth distribution coexists with 'debt-induced poverty' among the underprivileged, forming multi-layered, high-barrier social and economic divides.

Frequently hearing Professor Luo Xiang's lectures: 'Education raises your floor, but its impact on your ceiling is limited. What determines your ceiling? Opportunity and broad-mindedness.'

How many wealthy people are there in China? How are their assets allocated?

Huajun's 'Report on China's High-Net-Worth Individuals'
Extracted key data
Figure 1: Distribution of households with investable assets between 6 million and 30 million RMB
Figure 2: Distribution of individuals with assets worth 10 million RMB
Figure 3: Asset allocation among high-net-worth individuals

It can be perceived that:
Investable assets reach 6 million RMB
There are 1.8 million households nationwide, accounting for 0.37%
That is, one out of every 300 households

For 10 million RMB, it's 1.09 million people, accounting for 0.22%
One out of every 400 households
When calculated per individual, the proportion is even lower

Overall, high-net-worth individuals prefer stable assets: bank savings, wealth management products, and money market funds (25%) combined with insurance (19%) account for nearly half.

Stocks (14%) and gold (8%) follow, while investment in cryptocurrencies accounts for only 2%.

Significant differences exist across groups:

Entrepreneurs are the most conservative, with the highest allocation to bank savings (28%)

White-collar professionals are relatively balanced, with slightly higher allocations to stocks (15%) and bonds (7%)

Professional investors are more aggressive, with prominent allocations to stocks (18%) and insurance (21%), and the lowest share in savings (21%)

The "George Tritch Economic Cycle Backward Chart" that recently went viral on Twitter explained!

First, the conclusion: 2026 will be the year of economic upswing and peak asset prices, making it the optimal time to sell stocks and various assets.

Referencing the economic cycle chart created by George Tritch in the 19th century (similar to the Kondratieff cycle theory),
the core idea is to divide the economic cycle into three phases: panic phase, boom phase, and difficult phase, with corresponding years marked to guide asset buying and selling decisions based on the cycle.

1. Category A (Panic Phase): Years when economic crises or panics occur (e.g., 1927, 1945, 2019), market sentiment is fearful, and asset prices experience sharp fluctuations.

2. Category B (Boom Phase): Years of economic improvement and high asset prices, the ideal time to sell stocks and various assets (e.g., 2026 is marked as this phase).

3. Category C (Difficult Phase): Years of economic downturn and asset price lows, ideal for buying stocks and assets to hold long-term (e.g., 2023).

According to the chart logic, 2026 falls within the boom phase (Category B), marking the point to realize asset gains: you can sell assets purchased in 2023 (Difficult Phase) to lock in profits.

Combined with the Kondratieff cycle, 2026 is the intersection point between the fifth (Internet) and sixth (AI + New Energy) cycles, making it suitable to allocate resources to core sectors of the new cycle such as AI, new energy, and computing power, rather than sticking to old industries.

Overall view, the investment logic for major asset classes in 2025:
Precious metals (silver outperforms gold) > copper > A-shares ≈ US and European stocks (technology growth stocks are favored) > euro > US Treasuries (including coupon) > Chinese yuan > Chinese bonds > US dollar > crude oil.

Then, how should we play in 2026?
Ranking of major assets: US stocks > BTC > gold > copper/silver > US Treasuries (including coupon) > A-share indices > Chinese yuan > Chinese bonds > US dollar > crude oil.

Timeless investment strategies:

During economic downturns, buy bonds.
During economic recoveries, buy stocks.
When interest rates fall, buy long-term bonds.
When interest rates rise, buy short-term bonds.
During inflation, buy physical assets.
During deflation, hold cash.
During cryptocurrency downturns, dollar-cost average BTC.
During cryptocurrency booms, focus on new narratives.
When the market is overheated, reduce your positions.
When the market is低迷, gradually build positions.
During global turmoil, hold gold.

One chart to understand: How is your loan interest rate determined?

Also, let's expand this for everyone:

The government sets the benchmark interest rate.

The actual long-term interest rate is determined by the market.

Interest rate is the price of money.

Fluctuations in interest rates are equivalent to market fluctuations, and the central bank, representing the government, can be considered the biggest player in this market.

Manipulating market prices requires holding substantial supply and demand.

Essentially, it's the same as manipulating potato prices.

For example, in this vegetable market, if you want to keep potato prices at exactly 3 yuan per jin, you can't just have a large supply of potatoes—you also need a large amount of money.

If you sell potatoes at 3 yuan per jin, others selling at 3.1 yuan won't be able to sell.

But what if others sell at 2.9 yuan? You use your money to buy up all the 2.9 yuan potatoes.

Therefore, the government's ability to manipulate market interest rates depends on the 'chips' it holds!

One picture to understand: After World War II, the United States captured 12 foreign leaders