Asen森
ZeroOne Forge联合主理人；加密领域10年建设者；AI交易实习生：专注美股、加密、预测市场投研交易，AI、RWA赛道投资孵化。
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High-Frequency Trader
8.2 Years
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Bullish sentiment in the US market has been on the rise for 18 consecutive days~
To gauge crypto trends, you gotta keep an eye on the US stock market.
Recently, the overall environment in the stock market is leaning towards risk-on. If semiconductors, AI, and tech stocks continue to lead the charge, it means:
• The market is more focused on growth in the short term, not so much on recession
• Risk appetite for capital is bouncing back
• Core assets are attracting capital again
Today, semiconductors are the strongest theme, with INTC, AMD, ARM, and TSM all moving up together, indicating:
• The AI computing chain is being repriced as a focal point
• The market is willing to give higher premiums for growth, CapEx, and advanced processes
INTC's 30% surge today is something to watch out for; this isn't typical sector beta, it's more like:
• Driven by significant events
• Short covering
• Low expectation assets being forcibly reevaluated
So it’s not that all semiconductors are strong; it’s that the sector is strong + individual stock differentiation is intensifying.
Recently, the overall environment in the stock market is leaning towards risk-on. If semiconductors, AI, and tech stocks continue to lead the charge, it means:
• The market is more focused on growth in the short term, not so much on recession
• Risk appetite for capital is bouncing back
• Core assets are attracting capital again
Today, semiconductors are the strongest theme, with INTC, AMD, ARM, and TSM all moving up together, indicating:
• The AI computing chain is being repriced as a focal point
• The market is willing to give higher premiums for growth, CapEx, and advanced processes
INTC's 30% surge today is something to watch out for; this isn't typical sector beta, it's more like:
• Driven by significant events
• Short covering
• Low expectation assets being forcibly reevaluated
So it’s not that all semiconductors are strong; it’s that the sector is strong + individual stock differentiation is intensifying.
4/24 Contract Morning Update:
Main Long $ZEC : 4H bullish, 5m OI +0.11%, taker buy/sell ratio 2.37, overall long/short ratio 0.71 not crowded;
Trigger at 349.2 for breakout, stop loss at 338, take profit at 360/372, invalidated if drops back to below 328.4.
Main Short $SOL : 4H bearish, 5m OI increasing, funding turning negative to -0.0077%, overall long/short ratio 2.28 slightly squeezed, taker only 0.88; trigger at 85.1 for breakdown or 86.8 for a failed pullback, stop loss at 87.3, take profit at 84.4/83.3, invalidated if it reclaims above 86.8.
Watch $RAVE 1.24 and 1.00 squeeze zone;
Avoid KAT/MOVR, 24h up 58%/60%, volatility too high.
Main Long $ZEC : 4H bullish, 5m OI +0.11%, taker buy/sell ratio 2.37, overall long/short ratio 0.71 not crowded;
Trigger at 349.2 for breakout, stop loss at 338, take profit at 360/372, invalidated if drops back to below 328.4.
Main Short $SOL : 4H bearish, 5m OI increasing, funding turning negative to -0.0077%, overall long/short ratio 2.28 slightly squeezed, taker only 0.88; trigger at 85.1 for breakdown or 86.8 for a failed pullback, stop loss at 87.3, take profit at 84.4/83.3, invalidated if it reclaims above 86.8.
Watch $RAVE 1.24 and 1.00 squeeze zone;
Avoid KAT/MOVR, 24h up 58%/60%, volatility too high.
$SPK Spark backs itself with MakerDAO credit, sDAI yield advantages, and is favored by institutions and whales, making it a primary player for capital safety and yield upgrades. Recently, it has benefited from capital outflows from AAVE.
Dual-coin hot spot divergence:
CHIP has announcements + plaza hype + $3.155 billion in trading volume, but it's pulled back from 0.14, so I wouldn't recommend chasing it directly;
RAVE has dropped 37.2% in 24 hours, with a long/short ratio of 2.68, and is showing bearish signals on the 15m/1h/4h charts, looking more like a pullback for a short setup;
For CHIP, watch for strength above 0.1068, and for RAVE, keep an eye on the resistance zone between 0.9350-0.9655.
Key Levels
1) CHIPUSDT
- Trigger: Reclaiming above 0.1068
- Stop Loss: Dropping below 0.0982
- Take Profit: First target at 0.1197, if strong, then look towards 0.1400
- Invalidated: If it drops back below 0.0982 with volume and cannot reclaim on the 15m
2) RAVEUSDT
- Trigger: Pullback to the 0.9350 - 0.9655 resistance zone
- Stop Loss: Breaking above 0.9810
- Take Profit: First target at 0.8813, then look at 0.8400
- Invalidated: If it holds above 0.9810, indicating reduced bearish pressure
Risk Warning
- New coins/moving coins can be highly volatile; the levels are only suitable for intraday short-term observation and not for heavy stacking.
- CHIP is driven by news + sentiment; if the hype fades, a pullback can happen quickly.
- RAVE has already seen a significant drop; if emotional recovery or secondary news stimulation occurs, the pullback magnitude might exceed expectations.
- This is solely for intraday review and trading observation, not investment advice.
CHIP has announcements + plaza hype + $3.155 billion in trading volume, but it's pulled back from 0.14, so I wouldn't recommend chasing it directly;
RAVE has dropped 37.2% in 24 hours, with a long/short ratio of 2.68, and is showing bearish signals on the 15m/1h/4h charts, looking more like a pullback for a short setup;
For CHIP, watch for strength above 0.1068, and for RAVE, keep an eye on the resistance zone between 0.9350-0.9655.
Key Levels
1) CHIPUSDT
- Trigger: Reclaiming above 0.1068
- Stop Loss: Dropping below 0.0982
- Take Profit: First target at 0.1197, if strong, then look towards 0.1400
- Invalidated: If it drops back below 0.0982 with volume and cannot reclaim on the 15m
2) RAVEUSDT
- Trigger: Pullback to the 0.9350 - 0.9655 resistance zone
- Stop Loss: Breaking above 0.9810
- Take Profit: First target at 0.8813, then look at 0.8400
- Invalidated: If it holds above 0.9810, indicating reduced bearish pressure
Risk Warning
- New coins/moving coins can be highly volatile; the levels are only suitable for intraday short-term observation and not for heavy stacking.
- CHIP is driven by news + sentiment; if the hype fades, a pullback can happen quickly.
- RAVE has already seen a significant drop; if emotional recovery or secondary news stimulation occurs, the pullback magnitude might exceed expectations.
- This is solely for intraday review and trading observation, not investment advice.
[4/23 Pre-Market | Just Watching Two: Long BTC, Short XRP]
Main Long: BTCUSDT
Logic: Negative funding + bearish positions, strong buyer activity, 4h bullish
Trigger: Break above 79444 | Stop Loss: 77520 | Take Profit: 81700 | Invalid if it drops back below 77520
Main Short: XRPUSDT
Logic: Long/Short ratio at 2.33 is crowded, weakening takers, 4h bearish
Trigger: Break below 1.4158 | Stop Loss: 1.4583 | Take Profit: 1.365 | Invalid if it reclaims 1.4622
Watch: ETHUSDT, looking for a breakout direction at 2340/2423
Avoid: RAVEUSDT, CHIPUSDT
Remarks: Binance Square is biased towards BTC/ETH; focus of announcements is on CHIP, OPG.
Main Long: BTCUSDT
Logic: Negative funding + bearish positions, strong buyer activity, 4h bullish
Trigger: Break above 79444 | Stop Loss: 77520 | Take Profit: 81700 | Invalid if it drops back below 77520
Main Short: XRPUSDT
Logic: Long/Short ratio at 2.33 is crowded, weakening takers, 4h bearish
Trigger: Break below 1.4158 | Stop Loss: 1.4583 | Take Profit: 1.365 | Invalid if it reclaims 1.4622
Watch: ETHUSDT, looking for a breakout direction at 2340/2423
Avoid: RAVEUSDT, CHIPUSDT
Remarks: Binance Square is biased towards BTC/ETH; focus of announcements is on CHIP, OPG.
Last time I thought it would drop to 100,000, opened long at 86,000. Again, I thought it would bounce back to 100,000, opened long at 90,000 and held to 60,000.
This time I think it will go to 50,000, opened long at 70,000 and held until now. So is it a loss now or should I continue to hold? $BTC
This time I think it will go to 50,000, opened long at 70,000 and held until now. So is it a loss now or should I continue to hold? $BTC
The decline is a natural law (just sell it)
The rise is a heavy burden (needs real money)
1 year of gains can be ruined in a day
Why is this simple truth known but not acted upon? You will miss $ORDI , $GIGGLE , $币安人生 .
The rise is a heavy burden (needs real money)
1 year of gains can be ruined in a day
Why is this simple truth known but not acted upon? You will miss $ORDI , $GIGGLE , $币安人生 .
Do you remember waking up in the middle of the night last time at $RAVE 1.9? In the following days, it surged like it was on drugs, increasing tenfold to over 20+. I have been regretting not making a move at that time;
these days, while regretting, I have been thinking about shorting it, specifically adding it to my watchlist. Yesterday, after seeing some negative news, I hesitated and thought I should play it safe and see how things go today. As a result, when I woke up, it had dropped tenfold, turning my original regret into an even bigger one 🤣😂
It's true that wealth comes from taking risks, I am still too conservative, haha.
these days, while regretting, I have been thinking about shorting it, specifically adding it to my watchlist. Yesterday, after seeing some negative news, I hesitated and thought I should play it safe and see how things go today. As a result, when I woke up, it had dropped tenfold, turning my original regret into an even bigger one 🤣😂
It's true that wealth comes from taking risks, I am still too conservative, haha.
Understanding tokens like $ORDI in 2023.
This was my view on the inscription in May this year, and the logic still holds true today:
From March 8 to the present, a narrative economics based on the rise of Bitcoin on the edge has gradually emerged, causing many people to secretly think, "When I first heard about BRC-20, I seemed to have seen that familiar and regretful midsummer again." XRC-20 also quickly evolved from BRC-20.
Can you imagine how many XRC-20s this narrative needs to produce, and how many rivers are separated by them? After the stories of making riches spread, regrets continued to support Fomo, and Fomo gave birth to regrets. In this cycle, the stories will stay forever.
The effect will confuse people's minds, and the concept itself does not understand itself, but the novice starts to place orders, and uses the image of a professor to bluff people to make money.
In short, I read the script thoroughly before entering the play, and I really like this summary, which I would like to share with the wise:
Your bias is not everything. More, the perspective of stakeholders is the biggest driving force behind a certain concept innovation. Traders are not the only market participants, and the interests behind it are even more complicated. However, the distribution of interests behind it will always draw a main line: block producers, whales rushing into the LP pool, project parties, trading platforms, etc. may all be Traders who are at a certain stage of a concept will be wise if they find the logic of maximizing their profits, follow it, and make profits within a small space. #BTC #ORDI #sats
From March 8 to the present, a narrative economics based on the rise of Bitcoin on the edge has gradually emerged, causing many people to secretly think, "When I first heard about BRC-20, I seemed to have seen that familiar and regretful midsummer again." XRC-20 also quickly evolved from BRC-20.
Can you imagine how many XRC-20s this narrative needs to produce, and how many rivers are separated by them? After the stories of making riches spread, regrets continued to support Fomo, and Fomo gave birth to regrets. In this cycle, the stories will stay forever.
The effect will confuse people's minds, and the concept itself does not understand itself, but the novice starts to place orders, and uses the image of a professor to bluff people to make money.
In short, I read the script thoroughly before entering the play, and I really like this summary, which I would like to share with the wise:
Your bias is not everything. More, the perspective of stakeholders is the biggest driving force behind a certain concept innovation. Traders are not the only market participants, and the interests behind it are even more complicated. However, the distribution of interests behind it will always draw a main line: block producers, whales rushing into the LP pool, project parties, trading platforms, etc. may all be Traders who are at a certain stage of a concept will be wise if they find the logic of maximizing their profits, follow it, and make profits within a small space. #BTC #ORDI #sats
This is the truth of our repeated harvesting!!!
🤣Unable to understand the chess game (market) and the chess players (big players) deep schemes, unable to comprehend the market trends and human nature, controlled by emotions, frequently making blunders, the more you do it, the more mistakes you make:
When prices rise, various positive news will appear, further boosting the FOMO emotions;
When prices fall, various negative news will appear, further boosting the FUD emotions;
Big players act for profit and are good at manipulating emotions using event variables (important current events, major incidents, hot topics), making it easier to achieve their harvesting goals.
Therefore, trading should isolate emotions, not absolutely bullish or bearish, but somewhere in between, acting according to the trend to capture high probabilities, not fantasizing during trading, respecting reality, and making decisive actions.
🤣Unable to understand the chess game (market) and the chess players (big players) deep schemes, unable to comprehend the market trends and human nature, controlled by emotions, frequently making blunders, the more you do it, the more mistakes you make:
When prices rise, various positive news will appear, further boosting the FOMO emotions;
When prices fall, various negative news will appear, further boosting the FUD emotions;
Big players act for profit and are good at manipulating emotions using event variables (important current events, major incidents, hot topics), making it easier to achieve their harvesting goals.
Therefore, trading should isolate emotions, not absolutely bullish or bearish, but somewhere in between, acting according to the trend to capture high probabilities, not fantasizing during trading, respecting reality, and making decisive actions.
World peace has returned, and liquidity is back?
If BTC and ETH rise without a deep pullback, liquidity will truly begin to spread, and community enthusiasm will return. What’s most worth monitoring next are not the emotional tickets that have already risen.
Instead, it’s strong targets with transactions, support, and sector logic. I am currently more focused on: $SOL , $ENA , PENDLE, EIGEN, $SUI .
SOL is the first choice for mainstream risk-on diffusion;
ENA and PENDLE represent high beta and DeFi yield direction;
EIGEN benefits from the ETH ecosystem's supplementary logic;
SUI is the high-recognition target that is most likely to attract incremental funds outside the mainstream.
On the contrary, targets like ORDI, which have just experienced a sharp rise, are more like high-volatility divergence segments in the short term and may not be the smoothest relay points. Of course, at this point in the market, the key is not to chase who rises the fastest, but to find the places that are easiest for you to understand and most likely to be ignited by the next round of capital.
If BTC and ETH rise without a deep pullback, liquidity will truly begin to spread, and community enthusiasm will return. What’s most worth monitoring next are not the emotional tickets that have already risen.
Instead, it’s strong targets with transactions, support, and sector logic. I am currently more focused on: $SOL , $ENA , PENDLE, EIGEN, $SUI .
SOL is the first choice for mainstream risk-on diffusion;
ENA and PENDLE represent high beta and DeFi yield direction;
EIGEN benefits from the ETH ecosystem's supplementary logic;
SUI is the high-recognition target that is most likely to attract incremental funds outside the mainstream.
On the contrary, targets like ORDI, which have just experienced a sharp rise, are more like high-volatility divergence segments in the short term and may not be the smoothest relay points. Of course, at this point in the market, the key is not to chase who rises the fastest, but to find the places that are easiest for you to understand and most likely to be ignited by the next round of capital.
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