镜槐

The PCE published value is 2.9%. When the news came out at 11:00, a large bullish candle appeared for $ETH , which may be a precursor to interest rate cuts being speculated. However, after the Federal Reserve cuts rates, there is still Japan's interest rate hike to consider. Additionally, the recent trend in cryptocurrency is still bearish, so long positions should not be held for too long.

#科普
The PCE index will be announced at 11 PM tonight, let me explain it to everyone
PCE = Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
Excluding food and energy, it looks at how much other goods have grown compared to the same month last year.
This indicator can well reflect the current inflation situation in the United States, and the main goal of the Federal Reserve is to keep the inflation rate below 2%.
Last year's PCE value was 2.9%. If this year is below 2.9%, it can be said that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is a done deal, and the market will definitely have a big emotional rebound, and short positions should exit.
If it is above 2.9%, there may not be a rate cut and even an increase. Considering the current bear market situation, now is the time for a temporary peak.

#价格
Let's explain how the on-chain price and the price of spot contracts in the secondary market are determined.

On-chain: The on-chain price is calculated by an algorithm. The project issuer will create a liquidity pool containing their issued tokens and a certain amount of stablecoins. The amount of tokens is X, and the amount of stablecoins is Y, where X×Y=k. The value of k is fixed. When someone uses u to buy tokens, the stablecoins in the pool increase, the tokens decrease, and the value of Y/X increases, causing the price to rise.

Secondary: The price in the secondary market is mainly determined by the market depth. When you want to buy 1000u of Bitcoin at a price of 90,000, and there is only 100u of sell orders at that price level, the exchange will match your transaction by executing 400u at a price of 90,100 and 500u at a price of 90,200. At this point, the price will rise because your buy order has consumed the sell orders in the market.

$PIPPIN Today, I made up for some funding rate knowledge. Theoretically, the funding rate is determined by the price difference between spot and contracts, but there is no spot for this coin on Binance, so I was curious and did some research.
This coin has been traded on other exchanges, so part of the funding rate is determined by the spot prices on those exchanges.
I also observed Pippin's on-chain wallet address, which is particularly decentralized. However, this does not mean that the chips for this coin are not concentrated. It is likely that the market maker has opened multiple wallet addresses and is transferring between them.
Currently, this coin cannot be shorted. It has been consolidating for so long without a drop. Besides eating the funding rate, there may also be a large short squeeze coming. Additionally, since the market maker's chips are still relatively concentrated, they are likely preparing to dump a large amount during the short squeeze. If you want to short it, you'll have to wait for the signal.

$pippin The needle has been inserted, and with the current hanging order, it has now turned into a long position. This wave may be a short squeeze to sell out, while also enticing more buyers to take over. The current funding rate has reached 0.2, making it difficult for both long and short positions.

The order for this coin $pippin is a bit extraordinary, and it may continue to push upward. If it is going to drop, there will definitely be a big spike upward before a sharp decline. Right now, it doesn’t seem like that; there is a possibility of a pullback to wash out before continuing to rise.

$pippin This hanging order ratio, I feel like there will be another wave of short squeeze, I won't short again before I see the injection come out.
These days this coin has been repeatedly rubbed, mainly it's just me being foolish, wanting to play with small coins.

#行情推演
Weekend liquidity is indeed flowing, $BTC and $ETH are rising, the rebound has broken through the decline point from Friday with increased volume, which may be a precursor to a larger rebound. However, if you're trading short-term, you should adopt a short-term trading attitude; just aim for 2900, and set a stop loss if it breaks below this bullish breakout line.

From the hourly perspective, the K-line trend shows that both high and low points are rising, and there has not yet been a lower point created, so it's still better to be bullish. Additionally, observing the clearing map, there is still some liquidity above 2860 that has not been cleared, and I personally believe it will go up to take out the liquidity above.

#复盘
Today I saw $AIA rise quite sharply, and then it got smashed
At that time, I was thinking that liquidity has been terrible lately, combined with the market's panic sentiment, this coin must have someone manipulating it during the weekend. In a bear market, the large pull-up by the manipulators not only attracts attention but also allows for quick selling, so it does not give an opportunity for a rapid recovery; it may continue to decline, hence the short position.
Only after hitting my stop-loss did it continue, and I thought it was very unfortunate.

Post-analysis: This place lacks structure, and there is no risk-reward ratio; there are simply not enough conditions to open a position. So even though the direction of this trade was correct, it was not worth executing.
Because this coin was not on my watchlist, I stumbled upon it in the square, and I was not familiar with the basic situation or positions of this coin, yet I made the decision to open a position in just a few minutes.

This trade only had the stop-loss correct, but it was unreasonable from the start of the position, so it can only be considered a failed trade.

#行情解读
Look at $ETH , this non-farm payroll is slightly weak, causing a slight increase in the probability of a rate cut in December, but it hasn't reached the level the market desires for a necessary rate cut. Expectations have not been met, so it has instead dropped, and long leverage has been swept away, amplifying the decline.
From the position perspective, the greed and fear index has been in extreme fear for a week, and ETH has also retraced to the main rising point of July around 2630, where funds will attempt to catch a rebound. One can bet on a rebound from the emotional repair over the weekend.
Now, on the hourly level, a engulfing structure has formed, making it basically time to enter. Those seeking stability should wait for the U.S. stock market to close at five tomorrow; if the bottom hasn't been broken, then enter boldly.
One thing is clear: we are betting on a rebound in a downtrend, not a return to a bull market, so be sure to exit once the target price is reached or the time is up.
My target price is 2900, and the time is before the U.S. stock market opens on Monday.

#非农数据
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, tonight at 21:30, the U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for September will be released, with a 41.6% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and a 58.4% probability of maintaining the current rate.
I want to share with everyone why tonight's data could have such an effect.
First, let's look at the data:
The unemployment rate for September is reported at 4.4% (the highest since 2021).
The non-farm payroll is reported at 119,000 (higher than the expected 50,000, but lower than the trend level of 170,000 to 200,000).
As of November 15, the number of initial unemployment claims is 220,000 (a slight increase).

Employment expansion is still ongoing, but it cannot absorb so many people entering the labor market; meanwhile, layoffs by companies are slowly increasing, indicating that the current labor market is still relatively "loose". (Here, let me explain the concepts of "tight" and "loose": "tight" means the market is overheated, and labor supply cannot meet demand; "loose" means the demand for labor is less than the supply.)

In a "tight" labor market, the unemployment rate will drop, recruitment becomes difficult, wages will rise, leading to inflation, so at this time, the Federal Reserve is more inclined to raise interest rates to tighten liquidity, thereby suppressing inflation.

In a "loose" labor market, weak employment → wage growth declines → core inflation pressure decreases → the Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates.

The current situation is quite special; on one hand, inflation expectations are far above 2%, and on the other hand, the labor market is sluggish.

On one hand, the pressure of inflation does not allow the Federal Reserve to immediately make significant rate cuts, while the employment situation forces them to consider more accommodative policies. Therefore, the market has been closely monitoring employment data recently; as long as employment is even slightly weaker than expected, it will raise expectations for rate cuts.

Overall, this data release is still moderately dovish for the market.

#量价分析
In the first image, $ASTER has formed a structure that stops the decline. Looking at the framed area in the image, each trading volume has indeed verified the price action. When the candlestick body is long, the trading volume is high, and vice versa. Subsequently, the trading volume decreases, and the candlestick body is also shrinking, indicating that the current downward momentum is insufficient, making it an excellent opportunity to close short positions.
The $ZEC in the second image also follows this pattern.

#合约爆仓
Let's talk about risk control. Sometimes we clearly know how to trade, but at that moment, we ignore our trading discipline and open positions recklessly.
From an objective perspective, being liquidated and holding onto losing positions should be more painful than missing out, but why is missing out more uncomfortable? Many of our actions are things we clearly should give up, yet we still choose to take a gamble.
Here’s my conclusion: uncertainty. You never know whether a trade will be profitable or not; the market always presents uncertainty to you. Even if you don't adhere to your trading discipline, there’s still a possibility of making money. This is why we choose to open positions instead of staying flat, because staying flat means no profit potential, while opening positions does.
What we see subjectively is often a reflection of our own emotions. We want to make money too much, want to recover losses too much, want to turn things around too much, so when we recklessly open positions, we only see profits and not our principal. Just like all gamblers.
Principal, like other things, isn’t valued when we have it, but we will regret it immensely once we lose it.
Maybe after a liquidation, we will regret it deeply, but when we open the next position, we turn into gamblers only focused on profits. Maybe it's human nature, or maybe we just haven't felt the pain of loss yet.
Leave your emotional state when opening positions in the comments if you’ve noticed anything.

$AIA
Analyze the current trend of this coin, observe the three K-lines framed in the chart and their trading volumes. The first K-line has a small trading volume, and the price fluctuation is also small; the second K-line has an increased trading volume, and the price decline is also amplified; however, the third K-line is different, the trading volume is still increasing, but the price fluctuation has decreased.
The first two K-lines confirm the price behavior through trading volume, but by the third K-line, the price behavior reflected by the trading volume is abnormal, which is a key signal that may indicate a reversal in the market.
Remember: a market reversal takes time; it cannot suddenly drop or rise to a level. It's like rain; the process of rain stopping is a gradual decrease before it stops completely, not an instant transition from heavy rain to sunny weather. Do not rush at the sight of an abnormal K-line, but wait for the next confirmation signal.

$ZEC
$JELLYJELLY
I don't know if the same trend will be replicated
Today I saw a saying that resonated deeply with me:
Those who believe and those who do not in the market are both making money
Only those who believe later and are confident that they are not the last to believe are the ones buying
The feast will eventually end, and in this market, it is often the last ones to enter who are buying

#行情推演 #技术分析参考
$BTC Hourly level K-line has formed a double bottom pattern below and has broken through a resistance level above. A rebound may be coming, so I've entered a long position. If it later breaks below the 102 resistance level and forms a false breakout, please cut losses in a timely manner.
In a downtrend, any rebound is primarily about taking a small profit. We are here to make a little money, not to risk our lives against the market.

#行情分析📈
At $ETH 4000, I wanted to short at 4600 for a long position.
At 3700, I wanted to short at 4000.
Now it's down to 3050, and I want to short at 3700.
But when it really gets to that point, I hesitate.
In terms of market perspective, there are only two directions: long and short.
However, less than one-tenth of the people in the market are making money.
The difference doesn't lie in analysis, but in whether one dares to trust their judgment.
Then decisively execute the operation.
Hesitation can make one miss opportunities, and also miss growth.

$BTC Last night it fell below one hundred thousand and then went back up. If it can stabilize, there should be another small rebound

$JELLYJELLY The map has been drawn
Do you want to imitate $COAI again?
It feels like ever since $MYX , many in the market have been operating like this

#行情推演
$ASTER This coin previously experienced a significant price increase due to a CZ buy signal, and now the price has once again returned to below the fluctuation range.
In the current market situation, which is extremely sluggish, it feels like this coin cannot be traded for high and low profits anymore; even CZ's replenishment has not attracted much liquidity participation.
In 1011, I understood the power of news, but this time I also felt the powerlessness of news.
News cannot change the long-term trend unless it can alter the fundamentals.
There's nothing much to say; I will short on the rebound.