btc吧

The start of this week is good.

The CME gap was indeed filled at the beginning of trading, as the #Bitcoin price fell to $89.4K.

However, the downward trend was quickly bought by traders, as the price is currently contending with a key resistance zone.

Given the strong buying pressure at the moment, I expect the price to break upward and hold above $92,000 in the coming days.

This will lead to the stock price rising to $100,000 before 2026.

Whenever the RMB rebounds from the bottom, global liquidity will increase.

The price of Bitcoin will stabilize first, but the risk rotation will always follow.

→ ETH/BTC at the bottom of the RMB.

→ Then Ethereum enters the strongest phase of the entire cycle.

This pattern has appeared in 2016, 2019, and 2025.

My main argument is that we are currently in the market phase of the third/fourth quarter of 2019.

The similarities between these two periods are quite significant, and $BTC's dominance is ultimately eager to break down.

The opposite situation is that $ETH has maintained strong levels and has attracted more buyers' attention.

Given that the macroeconomic environment of 2019 is quite similar to now, I believe Bitcoin's dominance is about to go down.

In my opinion, $ARB is one of the most exciting protocols in the ecosystem.

They are the core layer for tokenizing any asset in the world.

The valuation of the underlying tokens has clearly not kept up with expectations, as it has dropped 70% in the past three months.

However, I would like to argue that its pricing is severely mispriced.

How do I do this?

You must look at the technical analysis of the underlying tokens to see if you can identify certain indicators pointing to pricing errors.

On the other hand, fundamental analysis (growth of the ecosystem, layer activity) is crucial.

From this perspective:

As you can see, the TVL (Total Value Locked) on the chain is skyrocketing. Despite the current harsh market conditions, they are setting new historical highs for TVL every day.

- DEX trading volume has significantly increased.

- The number of applications within the ecosystem is growing weekly.

- The number of active addresses is lower than at the end of 2023, but this is not surprising given the market's sharp decline, so I expect this to happen.

Based solely on these factors, I believe what we are seeing is a market that has underestimated many excellent protocols within the ecosystem.

If $ARB can deliver on its promises and return to its fair price by 2026, I wouldn’t be surprised, as the price should be several times higher than it is now.

#Bitcoin price level remains unchanged.

The current direction is still unclear; if we break below this level, we may see a final sweep around the range of $85,000, forming some kind of double bottom pattern.

I still believe we have completed this adjustment and are forming a bottom, after which we will rise again to a new all-time high.

If the support level of $915,000 holds, then I expect we will see a test of $100,000 next week.

For $ETH, this is a good start.

I believe that although the support in the higher time frames still exists, we will need stronger support in the coming weeks, and this is just the first step.

I think $ETH will surpass Bitcoin in the near future, and the entire Ethereum ecosystem will also thrive.

U.S. ADP November employment decreased by 32,000, the lowest level since March 2023, while the previous expectation was an increase of 10,000.

The Federal Reserve will have no choice but to cut interest rates again.

$BTC is happy to see that Coinbase's premium membership service has returned in the past week or so.

Putting aside Monday's sell-off, the price movement has been much more positive compared to the prolonged decline that lasted most of November.

Overall, other cryptocurrencies are still lagging behind Bitcoin, with Bitcoin performing better than most other cryptocurrencies. But if Bitcoin wants to maintain its strength, this may not be a bad thing.

Bullish: According to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin market buy-sell ratio has reached 1.17, the highest level since the beginning of this cycle in January 2023.

Breaking News: A whale player with a win rate of 100% has lost $1.78 million in two recent trades.

He is now shorting $BTC with a $18.75 million position at 30x leverage and shorting $ETH with a $15.26 million position at 20x leverage.

The ultimate embodiment of revenge trading.

This is how most people lose everything.

$BTC's performance is quite strong, with the current trading price above recent highs and resistance levels.

There are various scenarios.

One viewpoint is that we will continue to rebound and hold above $92,000; however, given the current market sentiment, I do not believe this possibility is very high.

If we lose $92,000, we may close some long positions and face a relatively large drop.

In this case, if $BTC corrects to any value between $88,000 and $90,000, it would be good for the trend, as lower time frames indicate we are in an upward trend.

I expect a test of $100,000 to $105,000 this month.

One of the strongest rebounds occurred on $SEI yesterday.

I believe we will see more strong increases, as market sentiment may be changing.

There is still a huge bullish divergence, and a new bullish divergence may appear on lower time frames.

This indicates that we are accumulating positions, and given that we are currently near historical lows, now is a good time to accumulate positions.

During Monday's sell-off of $BTC, a large amount of liquidity was withdrawn from below.

There is still a significant concentration of prices around $83,000, and if the price falls below the $85,000 area again, it will be worth paying attention to.

Among these, the price level above the weekend high of $93,000 is worth noting.

From what we have seen in the quick flush, there is a significant gap/inefficiency after the new monthly open.

If the Bitcoin weekly chart breaks below the 100-day moving average, it may experience a significant drop.

Today gold and silver fell, while Bitcoin rose.

Year to date:

Gold: +60%
- Silver: +95%
- Bitcoin: -7%

Bitcoin will catch up sooner or later, this decline will not last forever.

It is now the beginning of the month, and generally speaking, the beginning of the month is a bear market.

Another situation is that the QT interval has shortened.

This takes time.

The focus for the next week is:
- Unemployment data

This is the primary trigger for the Federal Reserve to decide whether a rate cut is sufficient.

Labor costs are higher than the inflation rate.

If the unemployment rate data rebounds beyond expectations, the calls for an economic recession will rise, which means we are likely to welcome quantitative easing policies.

The market has been quite volatile recently, and it has already priced in certain events.

It is very likely that these things will happen in December.

$NEAR hit a new low yesterday.

Not good, this I can say for sure.

However, this situation may be reversing quickly.

What does it need to do?

That's right: break through $1.80 and $1.95, and then we can continue to rise.

$ARB has the same argument here.

The market needs to wait for #Bitcoin to start recovering and break through the 90,000 USD mark.

If this happens, I believe we will see #Altcoins outperforming Bitcoin.

$ARB is still on my watchlist. A huge bullish divergence is about to unfold.