黑暗森林Bit
币圈遵循的是黑暗森林法则，活下去是第一要务。交易是一场漫长的修行，有的人走着走着就下车了。希望在这个交易的黑暗森林中，与大家一起保持耐心，慢慢变富，顶峰相见。邀请码：AIBIT
U Holder
Occasional Trader
6.9 Months
93 Following
235 Followers
168 Liked
10 Shared
Posts
Support Behind April's Stretch: Global Liquidity Funds
Today, I want to chat about what's been happening lately. The market over the last week or two has given many peeps the illusion that the liquidity environment is loosening up again. Since mid-April, US stocks have been on the rebound, skyrocketing from $BTC to 79k, and the bullish sentiment is getting louder. This surge isn't due to any improvements in fundamentals; it's all propped up by a temporary influx of $606 billion from overseas institutions.
This cash mainly comes from three channels:
First, by adjusting bank regulatory rules and lowering reserve requirements, they've directly released $251 billion; second, a new bond market purchase plan, which is basically a sneaky form of easing, injecting $192 billion; and the remaining $163 billion comes from other supportive channels, totaling $606 billion.
The related institutions aren't admitting this is a liquidity boost; they're just rebranding it to dodge the inflation devaluation debate. You can see from the debt scale curve that it continuously shrank last year but rebounded significantly in Q1 this year, which clearly shows real cash inflow.
This move is just a temporary pre-emptive measure to address the liquidity gap caused by the tax season surge in mid-April. Once the peak tax season passes, this temporary cash will gradually exit.
Currently, cash inflow has already started to reverse, and once the short-term support funds vanish, the liquidity gap in the market will be exposed again. My conclusion is straightforward: asset prices supported by temporary liquidity will face a real test once the tide of funds recedes.
$ETH
$BTC
Today, I want to chat about what's been happening lately. The market over the last week or two has given many peeps the illusion that the liquidity environment is loosening up again. Since mid-April, US stocks have been on the rebound, skyrocketing from $BTC to 79k, and the bullish sentiment is getting louder. This surge isn't due to any improvements in fundamentals; it's all propped up by a temporary influx of $606 billion from overseas institutions.
This cash mainly comes from three channels:
First, by adjusting bank regulatory rules and lowering reserve requirements, they've directly released $251 billion; second, a new bond market purchase plan, which is basically a sneaky form of easing, injecting $192 billion; and the remaining $163 billion comes from other supportive channels, totaling $606 billion.
The related institutions aren't admitting this is a liquidity boost; they're just rebranding it to dodge the inflation devaluation debate. You can see from the debt scale curve that it continuously shrank last year but rebounded significantly in Q1 this year, which clearly shows real cash inflow.
This move is just a temporary pre-emptive measure to address the liquidity gap caused by the tax season surge in mid-April. Once the peak tax season passes, this temporary cash will gradually exit.
Currently, cash inflow has already started to reverse, and once the short-term support funds vanish, the liquidity gap in the market will be exposed again. My conclusion is straightforward: asset prices supported by temporary liquidity will face a real test once the tide of funds recedes.
$ETH
$BTC
4.18 Bear Market 📉 Survive, Check-in Day 9
Your day is a reflection of your life. If you don’t do the things that bring you closer to your goals every day, you will never reach the place you want to go. As someone said, unless you change what you do every day, you can only stay in the same place forever.
So the outcome is really not the most important thing; the most important thing is your daily habits because only world-class habits can bring world-class results.
Speaking of this, regarding personal responsibility and action, why does proactively taking responsibility for your own life empower you?
Because no one is coming to save you; you have to stand up for yourself, become your own hero, and take complete control of your life. This is the most empowering thing you can do.
Moreover, you should know that regretting things you didn’t do is more painful than failing after trying. So never be someone who only complains; be someone who takes responsibility.
Life is short. Why should we be more inclined to take action immediately, rather than hesitating all the time?
The biggest failure in life is actually not trying the things that truly matter to you.
Because the global average lifespan is only seventy-three years, you don’t have that much time to waste.
$BTC
$ETH
Your day is a reflection of your life. If you don’t do the things that bring you closer to your goals every day, you will never reach the place you want to go. As someone said, unless you change what you do every day, you can only stay in the same place forever.
So the outcome is really not the most important thing; the most important thing is your daily habits because only world-class habits can bring world-class results.
Speaking of this, regarding personal responsibility and action, why does proactively taking responsibility for your own life empower you?
Because no one is coming to save you; you have to stand up for yourself, become your own hero, and take complete control of your life. This is the most empowering thing you can do.
Moreover, you should know that regretting things you didn’t do is more painful than failing after trying. So never be someone who only complains; be someone who takes responsibility.
Life is short. Why should we be more inclined to take action immediately, rather than hesitating all the time?
The biggest failure in life is actually not trying the things that truly matter to you.
Because the global average lifespan is only seventy-three years, you don’t have that much time to waste.
$BTC
$ETH
4.17 Do you think only retail investors are anxious about this market? $BTC
Institutions also have performance anxiety (FOMO and occupational risk):
1. Wall Street fund managers cannot hold large amounts of cash while watching the market hit new highs every day, which could lead them to miss out on bonuses or even get fired by the end of the year. As the market continues to rise, trillions of dollars in passive and sidelined funds will be forced to 'buy the dip' at extremely high levels, and this desperate chasing of prices is the strongest fuel for a rally.
2. Systematic funds mechanically increasing their positions: As the stock market steadily rises, volatility will continue to be suppressed at low levels. Volatility control funds and trend-following strategies will be forced to increase their stock positions to historical maximums due to extremely low volatility.
3. The ultimate reversal of macro trends
The cruelty of the market lies in the fact that the peak of a rally often coincides with the start of interest rate cuts.
When the 'debt maturity wall' finally approaches in the next year or two, or when the Treasury runs out of bullets, corporate profits will collapse instantly.
At that time, the Federal Reserve will be forced to make 'emergency rate cuts.' And when the rate cuts are actually implemented, it often means that the underlying economic fundamentals have completely shattered, marking the countdown to the end of an epic rally and the true beginning of a crash.
So, do you understand? Have you entered? Can you hold on?
$ETH
Institutions also have performance anxiety (FOMO and occupational risk):
1. Wall Street fund managers cannot hold large amounts of cash while watching the market hit new highs every day, which could lead them to miss out on bonuses or even get fired by the end of the year. As the market continues to rise, trillions of dollars in passive and sidelined funds will be forced to 'buy the dip' at extremely high levels, and this desperate chasing of prices is the strongest fuel for a rally.
2. Systematic funds mechanically increasing their positions: As the stock market steadily rises, volatility will continue to be suppressed at low levels. Volatility control funds and trend-following strategies will be forced to increase their stock positions to historical maximums due to extremely low volatility.
3. The ultimate reversal of macro trends
The cruelty of the market lies in the fact that the peak of a rally often coincides with the start of interest rate cuts.
When the 'debt maturity wall' finally approaches in the next year or two, or when the Treasury runs out of bullets, corporate profits will collapse instantly.
At that time, the Federal Reserve will be forced to make 'emergency rate cuts.' And when the rate cuts are actually implemented, it often means that the underlying economic fundamentals have completely shattered, marking the countdown to the end of an epic rally and the true beginning of a crash.
So, do you understand? Have you entered? Can you hold on?
$ETH
4.16 Bear Market 📉 Survive, Check-in Day 7.
Today let's talk about something over 98% of people get wrong: Position Control
Here’s a hard truth, among retail investors with capital below 100,000, 98.7% lose money. The common action among these people is one — going all in. Everyone thinks this way, and then they all lose, which shows that it’s not a matter of belief, but a mathematical issue.
Many people calculate incorrectly. When they see a strategy averaging a 5% gain, they assume they can risk everything and still gain 5%, isn’t that nonsense? Scientifically, this is called expected value. In the market, you're surviving on compound interest, on geometric returns, yet high volatility will always cut a piece from your compounding. If you go all in and face a major drawdown, you need to double your investment to return to your original point. Along the way, you’ve already been taxed by volatility. Don’t believe me? Double your investment in gold and see how much you can profit during the volatile market in March and April.
The real answer: The optimal position calculated by the Kelly Criterion written in 1956 matches your win rate, payout ratio, and risk tolerance. For instance, with a win rate of 50% and a payout ratio of 1.5, the optimal is only 16.7%.
The specific position control method is divided into 3 steps, simple and easy to execute:
1. First calculate the basic optimal position: Use the Kelly formula (Position = Win Rate - (1 - Win Rate) / Payout Ratio) to calculate. For example, with a 50% win rate and a 1.5 payout ratio, the full Kelly position is 16.7%; if your own strategy has a 40% win rate and a payout ratio of 2, then the full Kelly position is 10%.
2. Retail investors directly take a 5-2.5 discount: Because retail investors often misestimate win rates/payout ratios and are not as precise as institutions, it’s better to use half Kelly (50% discount, e.g., 16.7% → 8.3%) or one-quarter Kelly (2.5 discount, e.g., 16.7% → 4%). These two are the most reliable references, and there’s no need to obsess over exact numbers; a range of 4%-8% is acceptable.
3. Then combine with market and asset fine-tuning: For thin market depth and poor liquidity, further lower the position; if you haven’t researched deeply or the asset is highly volatile, don’t exceed 8%. Conversely, for well-researched, low-volatility assets, you can approach 8% but never exceed it.
In simple terms, in daily operations, keep the position for a single asset controlled between 4%-8%. Of course, the core is not about hitting numbers, but completely abandoning going all in, using light positions to gain "the qualification to stay in the market", avoiding getting kicked out after one drawdown.
— Meeting adjourned!
$BTC
$ETH
Today let's talk about something over 98% of people get wrong: Position Control
Here’s a hard truth, among retail investors with capital below 100,000, 98.7% lose money. The common action among these people is one — going all in. Everyone thinks this way, and then they all lose, which shows that it’s not a matter of belief, but a mathematical issue.
Many people calculate incorrectly. When they see a strategy averaging a 5% gain, they assume they can risk everything and still gain 5%, isn’t that nonsense? Scientifically, this is called expected value. In the market, you're surviving on compound interest, on geometric returns, yet high volatility will always cut a piece from your compounding. If you go all in and face a major drawdown, you need to double your investment to return to your original point. Along the way, you’ve already been taxed by volatility. Don’t believe me? Double your investment in gold and see how much you can profit during the volatile market in March and April.
The real answer: The optimal position calculated by the Kelly Criterion written in 1956 matches your win rate, payout ratio, and risk tolerance. For instance, with a win rate of 50% and a payout ratio of 1.5, the optimal is only 16.7%.
The specific position control method is divided into 3 steps, simple and easy to execute:
1. First calculate the basic optimal position: Use the Kelly formula (Position = Win Rate - (1 - Win Rate) / Payout Ratio) to calculate. For example, with a 50% win rate and a 1.5 payout ratio, the full Kelly position is 16.7%; if your own strategy has a 40% win rate and a payout ratio of 2, then the full Kelly position is 10%.
2. Retail investors directly take a 5-2.5 discount: Because retail investors often misestimate win rates/payout ratios and are not as precise as institutions, it’s better to use half Kelly (50% discount, e.g., 16.7% → 8.3%) or one-quarter Kelly (2.5 discount, e.g., 16.7% → 4%). These two are the most reliable references, and there’s no need to obsess over exact numbers; a range of 4%-8% is acceptable.
3. Then combine with market and asset fine-tuning: For thin market depth and poor liquidity, further lower the position; if you haven’t researched deeply or the asset is highly volatile, don’t exceed 8%. Conversely, for well-researched, low-volatility assets, you can approach 8% but never exceed it.
In simple terms, in daily operations, keep the position for a single asset controlled between 4%-8%. Of course, the core is not about hitting numbers, but completely abandoning going all in, using light positions to gain "the qualification to stay in the market", avoiding getting kicked out after one drawdown.
— Meeting adjourned!
$BTC
$ETH
On April 15th, a wave of stretching inevitably led to FOMO emotions. Let's talk about what to do next?
News is flying everywhere, but the market has slowly desensitized to the news. At this point, we need to return to the facts and reason based on facts rather than news:
1. The facts are:
Since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 44 days, nearly 900 million barrels of oil that should have been transported have only been shipped out of 300 to 400 million barrels, resulting in a net shortfall of 400 to 500 million barrels. The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil daily supply decreased by 8 million barrels in March, with export losses exceeding 300 million barrels by the end of the month. The reason oil prices have not directly soared to 150 dollars is that countries are still consuming reserve oil, but reserves are about to be exhausted.
In terms of natural gas, Qatar's exports have basically frozen, related production facilities have been damaged, and 17% of production capacity will take three to five years to recover. Global LNG supply has decreased by 20%, severely impacting Asian importing countries. The shortage of fertilizers and chemical products has driven the prices of global agricultural and industrial raw materials to soar, with inventory continuously consumed, keeping oil prices at high levels.
2. From a logical perspective:
The crisis is far from over. The current fragile ceasefire lacks substantial meaning, the Strait has never truly reopened, and facility repairs and channel dredging will take months. The shortage of energy and materials continues to exist, and high oil prices will continue to push up inflation, even triggering stagflation.
The risk of a financial tsunami is hard to cover up: yields on U.S. bonds, European bonds, and Japanese bonds are rising, and prices are falling; countries like Japan and South Korea are selling U.S. bonds to buy oil; central banks in Turkey, France, and others are selling gold for liquidity, all of which are signals of an impending crisis. Many Asian countries face energy shortages, factory shutdowns, and insufficient agricultural investment, with high oil prices transmitting across the entire industrial chain, bringing recession risks closer.
The International Energy Agency states that this is the largest energy supply shock in history, far exceeding the oil crisis of 1973. Futures prices can be manipulated by short-term emotions and news, but the shortage of spot goods and the depletion of inventories cannot be concealed, and the gap between futures and spot prices will ultimately converge.
By the end of April, strategic reserves in various countries will reach a critical point. In May and June, with the peak of summer electricity demand, dual El Niño high temperatures, and European winter energy demand, the contradiction between energy supply and demand will explode. The market is still in a game of semi-open scenarios, but the buffer window is continuously shrinking. If there is no substantial breakthrough before June, the crisis scenario will quickly materialize.
——
$BTC
$ETH
News is flying everywhere, but the market has slowly desensitized to the news. At this point, we need to return to the facts and reason based on facts rather than news:
1. The facts are:
Since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 44 days, nearly 900 million barrels of oil that should have been transported have only been shipped out of 300 to 400 million barrels, resulting in a net shortfall of 400 to 500 million barrels. The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil daily supply decreased by 8 million barrels in March, with export losses exceeding 300 million barrels by the end of the month. The reason oil prices have not directly soared to 150 dollars is that countries are still consuming reserve oil, but reserves are about to be exhausted.
In terms of natural gas, Qatar's exports have basically frozen, related production facilities have been damaged, and 17% of production capacity will take three to five years to recover. Global LNG supply has decreased by 20%, severely impacting Asian importing countries. The shortage of fertilizers and chemical products has driven the prices of global agricultural and industrial raw materials to soar, with inventory continuously consumed, keeping oil prices at high levels.
2. From a logical perspective:
The crisis is far from over. The current fragile ceasefire lacks substantial meaning, the Strait has never truly reopened, and facility repairs and channel dredging will take months. The shortage of energy and materials continues to exist, and high oil prices will continue to push up inflation, even triggering stagflation.
The risk of a financial tsunami is hard to cover up: yields on U.S. bonds, European bonds, and Japanese bonds are rising, and prices are falling; countries like Japan and South Korea are selling U.S. bonds to buy oil; central banks in Turkey, France, and others are selling gold for liquidity, all of which are signals of an impending crisis. Many Asian countries face energy shortages, factory shutdowns, and insufficient agricultural investment, with high oil prices transmitting across the entire industrial chain, bringing recession risks closer.
The International Energy Agency states that this is the largest energy supply shock in history, far exceeding the oil crisis of 1973. Futures prices can be manipulated by short-term emotions and news, but the shortage of spot goods and the depletion of inventories cannot be concealed, and the gap between futures and spot prices will ultimately converge.
By the end of April, strategic reserves in various countries will reach a critical point. In May and June, with the peak of summer electricity demand, dual El Niño high temperatures, and European winter energy demand, the contradiction between energy supply and demand will explode. The market is still in a game of semi-open scenarios, but the buffer window is continuously shrinking. If there is no substantial breakthrough before June, the crisis scenario will quickly materialize.
——
$BTC
$ETH
4.14 Today let's learn the core ten sentences of mx:
1. Understand the situation: Clarify who are friends and who are enemies, and make clear the targets of unity and strikes. This is the primary issue for achieving success; unclear direction will inevitably lead to failure.
2. No investigation, no right to speak: Abandon empty talk, listen to the voices of practical workers at the grassroots level. Facts are far more powerful than theory.
3. Grasp the main contradiction: Identify the key core amidst complex affairs. After solving the key issues, other trivial problems will naturally be resolved smoothly.
4. Persistence in war thinking: Great undertakings cannot be accomplished overnight. In the face of strong enemies and difficulties, establish a firm confidence in victory strategically, and handle matters cautiously tactically, gradually dismantling challenges.
5. Adhere to the mass line: Resources for individuals and leadership are limited. Transform personal goals into the interests of the masses, and unite everyone's strength to strive together.
6. Use flexible strategies: Follow the thinking of retreating in the face of enemy advance, disrupting the enemy when they are stationed, striking when the enemy is tired, and pursuing when the enemy retreats. Avoid the opponent's advantageous areas and find breakthroughs in their weaknesses.
7. Learn through practice: Reading is part of learning, but applying knowledge is even more important. Accumulate experience and enhance abilities through practical actions.
8. Adhere to seeking truth from facts: All decisions should be based on objective reality, avoiding rigid adherence to textbook dogmas. When theory does not match reality, adjust the theory in a timely manner.
9. Build a united front: Strengthen the power that supports you and weaken opposing forces. Even if there are differences, stage-wise cooperation can still be carried out when there are common interests.
10. Insist on self-reform: Just like regularly cleaning the house and grooming oneself, continuously engage in criticism and self-criticism to keep the team always combat-ready.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
1. Understand the situation: Clarify who are friends and who are enemies, and make clear the targets of unity and strikes. This is the primary issue for achieving success; unclear direction will inevitably lead to failure.
2. No investigation, no right to speak: Abandon empty talk, listen to the voices of practical workers at the grassroots level. Facts are far more powerful than theory.
3. Grasp the main contradiction: Identify the key core amidst complex affairs. After solving the key issues, other trivial problems will naturally be resolved smoothly.
4. Persistence in war thinking: Great undertakings cannot be accomplished overnight. In the face of strong enemies and difficulties, establish a firm confidence in victory strategically, and handle matters cautiously tactically, gradually dismantling challenges.
5. Adhere to the mass line: Resources for individuals and leadership are limited. Transform personal goals into the interests of the masses, and unite everyone's strength to strive together.
6. Use flexible strategies: Follow the thinking of retreating in the face of enemy advance, disrupting the enemy when they are stationed, striking when the enemy is tired, and pursuing when the enemy retreats. Avoid the opponent's advantageous areas and find breakthroughs in their weaknesses.
7. Learn through practice: Reading is part of learning, but applying knowledge is even more important. Accumulate experience and enhance abilities through practical actions.
8. Adhere to seeking truth from facts: All decisions should be based on objective reality, avoiding rigid adherence to textbook dogmas. When theory does not match reality, adjust the theory in a timely manner.
9. Build a united front: Strengthen the power that supports you and weaken opposing forces. Even if there are differences, stage-wise cooperation can still be carried out when there are common interests.
10. Insist on self-reform: Just like regularly cleaning the house and grooming oneself, continuously engage in criticism and self-criticism to keep the team always combat-ready.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
4.13 The Impact of War on Bitcoin
First, the conclusion: it is not a simple rise and fall, but rather a phased and structured impact.
1. Short-term panic takes precedence, liquidity is king
In the early stages of a war, the market usually experiences three things: first, risk assets are sold off; second, dollar liquidity rises; and third, rapid deleveraging occurs.
During this phase, BTC is regarded as a high-volatility risk asset rather than a safe haven asset. Thus, the short-term logic is: war breaks out, then panic, then sell-off, then BTC declines.
2. Mid-term sanctions and capital controls begin to take effect
As the war continues, financial sanctions emerge, such as the blocking of the SWIFT system, foreign exchange restrictions, and bank freezes. At this point, the censorship-resistant properties of cryptocurrency $BTC $ETH $ZEC become apparent.
Therefore, the mid-term logic is: the war continues, financial sanctions, capital restrictions, then the demand for Bitcoin rises. However, it should be noted that this is not a global surge but rather a localized increase in demand.
3. Long-term outlook on whether the war leads to monetary easing
What truly determines BTC's trend is whether the war changes monetary policy. If the war increases fiscal spending and raises the deficit, leading to central bank easing, then BTC may actually benefit.
Historically, a typical example is large-scale QE and excessive issuance of dollars, where BTC rose from four thousand to sixty-nine thousand.
Thus, the long-term logic is: war, then fiscal expansion, then excessive monetary issuance, with BTC benefiting as an inflation-resistant asset.
4. Different types of wars have different impacts on BTC
Localized conflicts, such as the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, have limited impact, mainly affecting oil and gold, with a brief effect on BTC.
A comprehensive conflict involving major powers, if it involves the dollar system, a breakdown in global trade, or an energy crisis, could trigger systemic changes in liquidity.
Financial warfare, such as sanctions, asset freezes, and settlement system blockades, is actually favorable for BTC in the long run.
5. A core judgment framework
a: Does the incident trigger a tightening of global liquidity?
b: Does it lead to excessive monetary issuance?
c: Does it strengthen capital controls?
Only when b and c are true does BTC truly benefit.
The war itself is neither a positive nor a negative; what truly determines BTC's trend is how the war changes the structure of liquidity.
Thank you for your attention - meeting adjourned!
First, the conclusion: it is not a simple rise and fall, but rather a phased and structured impact.
1. Short-term panic takes precedence, liquidity is king
In the early stages of a war, the market usually experiences three things: first, risk assets are sold off; second, dollar liquidity rises; and third, rapid deleveraging occurs.
During this phase, BTC is regarded as a high-volatility risk asset rather than a safe haven asset. Thus, the short-term logic is: war breaks out, then panic, then sell-off, then BTC declines.
2. Mid-term sanctions and capital controls begin to take effect
As the war continues, financial sanctions emerge, such as the blocking of the SWIFT system, foreign exchange restrictions, and bank freezes. At this point, the censorship-resistant properties of cryptocurrency $BTC $ETH $ZEC become apparent.
Therefore, the mid-term logic is: the war continues, financial sanctions, capital restrictions, then the demand for Bitcoin rises. However, it should be noted that this is not a global surge but rather a localized increase in demand.
3. Long-term outlook on whether the war leads to monetary easing
What truly determines BTC's trend is whether the war changes monetary policy. If the war increases fiscal spending and raises the deficit, leading to central bank easing, then BTC may actually benefit.
Historically, a typical example is large-scale QE and excessive issuance of dollars, where BTC rose from four thousand to sixty-nine thousand.
Thus, the long-term logic is: war, then fiscal expansion, then excessive monetary issuance, with BTC benefiting as an inflation-resistant asset.
4. Different types of wars have different impacts on BTC
Localized conflicts, such as the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, have limited impact, mainly affecting oil and gold, with a brief effect on BTC.
A comprehensive conflict involving major powers, if it involves the dollar system, a breakdown in global trade, or an energy crisis, could trigger systemic changes in liquidity.
Financial warfare, such as sanctions, asset freezes, and settlement system blockades, is actually favorable for BTC in the long run.
5. A core judgment framework
a: Does the incident trigger a tightening of global liquidity?
b: Does it lead to excessive monetary issuance?
c: Does it strengthen capital controls?
Only when b and c are true does BTC truly benefit.
The war itself is neither a positive nor a negative; what truly determines BTC's trend is how the war changes the structure of liquidity.
Thank you for your attention - meeting adjourned!
The premise of making money is to not rush into it, and the premise of playing games is to not rush into fighting and killing.
Have you ever thought about why some people lose money the more they start businesses, and the more they hustle, the poorer they become? The answer is simple: one word: impatience.
Impatience leads to skipping the most crucial step: understanding the rules.
Making money is the same; when you enter any industry, the first thing is not to study how to make money, but to study the game rules of that industry.
If you are a newcomer to the cryptocurrency world, don’t rush to take action; give yourself one to three months to do one thing: clarify three questions:
First, how does money flow; where does the money come from and where does it go,
Second, what do the people who make money do right; who is making money and on what basis,
Third, what pitfalls have the people who lose money encountered? What invisible traps are there?
Once you understand these three questions, you will find that some cryptocurrencies don't even need to be looked at, and some pitfalls don’t need to be stepped into. Otherwise, you won’t even know whether there’s a treasure chest or a trap behind the door, yet you dare to rush in.
Too many people skip this step and directly enter the state of wanting to get rich quickly. Those who can really make money have an entirely opposite order of doing things compared to you. Ordinary people see opportunities, rush in, learn while doing, and when they realize something is wrong, they lose money and exit. Experts see opportunities and spend one to three months specifically studying the rules.
$BTC
$ETH
So: What was the biggest pitfall you encountered because of being too impatient? Share it in the comments to remind everyone.
Have you ever thought about why some people lose money the more they start businesses, and the more they hustle, the poorer they become? The answer is simple: one word: impatience.
Impatience leads to skipping the most crucial step: understanding the rules.
Making money is the same; when you enter any industry, the first thing is not to study how to make money, but to study the game rules of that industry.
If you are a newcomer to the cryptocurrency world, don’t rush to take action; give yourself one to three months to do one thing: clarify three questions:
First, how does money flow; where does the money come from and where does it go,
Second, what do the people who make money do right; who is making money and on what basis,
Third, what pitfalls have the people who lose money encountered? What invisible traps are there?
Once you understand these three questions, you will find that some cryptocurrencies don't even need to be looked at, and some pitfalls don’t need to be stepped into. Otherwise, you won’t even know whether there’s a treasure chest or a trap behind the door, yet you dare to rush in.
Too many people skip this step and directly enter the state of wanting to get rich quickly. Those who can really make money have an entirely opposite order of doing things compared to you. Ordinary people see opportunities, rush in, learn while doing, and when they realize something is wrong, they lose money and exit. Experts see opportunities and spend one to three months specifically studying the rules.
$BTC
$ETH
So: What was the biggest pitfall you encountered because of being too impatient? Share it in the comments to remind everyone.
4.12 Information Warfare
In the next week or two, false news about the US-Iran negotiations will be rampant, and these players will take advantage of the information gap and rapid market fluctuations to harvest retail investors, leading to a possible 180-degree market reversal. Retail investors will be repeatedly harvested because we are at the end of the information chain.
Therefore, it is advised that everyone holds off and does not act recklessly for the time being.
Because of the information landscape, you can only see various big headlines, but this actually has no practical significance. The key is to rely on logical analysis, focus on what is actually happening rather than the verbal statements from all parties, and simultaneously conduct multi-dimensional verification of all information.
In the short term, the information released by various parties will likely claim they have "won", but the real victory or defeat lies in the details, specifically the actual interests each party has sacrificed to achieve the results stated in the headlines.
For example, what are the navigation rules, control entities, and passage conditions behind the realization of free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; what are the timelines and additional conditions behind the US agreeing to unfreeze Iranian-related assets.
Simply looking at headlines like "Agree to Lift Sanctions" cannot determine who the real winner is; all topics such as uranium enrichment, nuclear issues, and political compensation are the same.
It is highly likely that in the end, all negotiating parties will claim victory, while the ones truly paying the price are ordinary information spectators. $BTC
$ETH
In the next week or two, false news about the US-Iran negotiations will be rampant, and these players will take advantage of the information gap and rapid market fluctuations to harvest retail investors, leading to a possible 180-degree market reversal. Retail investors will be repeatedly harvested because we are at the end of the information chain.
Therefore, it is advised that everyone holds off and does not act recklessly for the time being.
Because of the information landscape, you can only see various big headlines, but this actually has no practical significance. The key is to rely on logical analysis, focus on what is actually happening rather than the verbal statements from all parties, and simultaneously conduct multi-dimensional verification of all information.
In the short term, the information released by various parties will likely claim they have "won", but the real victory or defeat lies in the details, specifically the actual interests each party has sacrificed to achieve the results stated in the headlines.
For example, what are the navigation rules, control entities, and passage conditions behind the realization of free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; what are the timelines and additional conditions behind the US agreeing to unfreeze Iranian-related assets.
Simply looking at headlines like "Agree to Lift Sanctions" cannot determine who the real winner is; all topics such as uranium enrichment, nuclear issues, and political compensation are the same.
It is highly likely that in the end, all negotiating parties will claim victory, while the ones truly paying the price are ordinary information spectators. $BTC
$ETH
📉Surviving in the bear market of cryptocurrency, clocking in on day 2:
#霍尔木兹海峡再度关闭 $BTC
In the end, there are actually three things left in trading:
First, only trade strong assets; only in places with large fluctuations can you have the opportunity and space to save your time costs.
Second, only trade within the model; filter using trends, positions, and pattern conditions one by one, eliminating all that do not match, what remains is what you should wait for.
Third, only trust the prices on the market; other people's opinions and all the news, just listen and don't take it to heart. You are always waiting for that opportunity to appear, and it's enough to go in with a stop loss and take a chance.
Every day is just waiting for that one opportunity filtered out by the three screens.
Outsiders may think it looks very boring, but personally, I find it simple and solid.
Remember, there are always opportunities in the market; you shouldn't try to earn every penny in the entire market, but only earn what you can. If you can't grasp an opportunity, missing it is just missing it; it was never meant to be your wealth.
First survive, then make money!
#霍尔木兹海峡再度关闭 $BTC
In the end, there are actually three things left in trading:
First, only trade strong assets; only in places with large fluctuations can you have the opportunity and space to save your time costs.
Second, only trade within the model; filter using trends, positions, and pattern conditions one by one, eliminating all that do not match, what remains is what you should wait for.
Third, only trust the prices on the market; other people's opinions and all the news, just listen and don't take it to heart. You are always waiting for that opportunity to appear, and it's enough to go in with a stop loss and take a chance.
Every day is just waiting for that one opportunity filtered out by the three screens.
Outsiders may think it looks very boring, but personally, I find it simple and solid.
Remember, there are always opportunities in the market; you shouldn't try to earn every penny in the entire market, but only earn what you can. If you can't grasp an opportunity, missing it is just missing it; it was never meant to be your wealth.
First survive, then make money!
📉The bear market has persisted for several months, and every turn during the bear market $BTC inevitably triggers a sense of FOMO in us, driven by the fear of missing out. The fear of not buying at the low and then missing the subsequent rise.
FOMO (fear of missing out) is the anxiety that arises in an era of active social media and information overload, where individuals worry about missing events, opportunities, or social interactions. This manifests as a continuous focus on others' activities, difficulty concentrating on the present, and indecisiveness in decision-making.
At this time, cultivating the right mindset is paramount.
In contrast to FOMO, JOMO (joy of missing out) is about enjoying the freedom of missing out, shifting focus to inner satisfaction, which is the first step in cultivation.
$BNB
FOMO (fear of missing out) is the anxiety that arises in an era of active social media and information overload, where individuals worry about missing events, opportunities, or social interactions. This manifests as a continuous focus on others' activities, difficulty concentrating on the present, and indecisiveness in decision-making.
At this time, cultivating the right mindset is paramount.
In contrast to FOMO, JOMO (joy of missing out) is about enjoying the freedom of missing out, shifting focus to inner satisfaction, which is the first step in cultivation.
$BNB
Login to explore more contents