沈易看趋势

SOL's recent market performance has been very strong, with its market capitalization reaching approximately $121.2 billion, rising to the 185th position in global asset market rankings, surpassing MercadoLibre. This indicates a significant increase in market attention and capital inflow for SOL. Further data shows that a single address received SOL worth $22.3 million in a short period, which may reflect institutional or large investor interest.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has seen Bitcoin and Ethereum trending towards relative stability. The investment return rate is relatively lower compared to SOL. Tonight at 8:30 PM will mark a significant wave of market activity for SOL!

The recent weakness in ETH prices and the reasons for downward pressure. The macro funding flow background data shows that ETH funds have flowed out by $912 million, indicating a bearish attitude among institutional investors.
From a technical perspective, based on past market experience, ETH has shown strong resistance around $4500 for a long time. There is a clear lack of new buyers and weak spot inflows, which both indicate a low probability of breaking through $4500 in the short term. If the price continues to fail to break through $4500 and instead falls below the support range of $4300-4350, the likelihood of further declines to $4000 or even lower will significantly increase.

The total active loan amount on Ethereum's top decentralized finance platform is approaching $40 billion, while on-chain activities remain strong, which will provide fundamental support for ETH in the long run. The supply of stablecoins on the ETH network has reached a new high of $172.2 billion, and these funds may become the fuel for future market recovery. In addition, the large-scale tokenization trend on-chain, such as gold and U.S. Treasury assets, has also boosted the demand for ETH.

The long-short game intensifies: at the moment of interest rate cuts, the market's long-short game may become more complicated. On one hand, interest rate cuts will attract some funds into the Ethereum market, pushing prices up; on the other hand, some investors may worry about the other effects of interest rate cuts, such as the risk of economic recession, and choose to sell Ethereum. In addition, the presence of the derivatives market can also intensify the long-short game, as when prices rise to a certain extent, it may trigger a large number of long position liquidations, leading to a price drop. Ethereum's short-term trend depends on whether buyers can hold the line at $4250 while breaking through the resistance level near $4370.

The current price range has relatively sparse chips, which increases the likelihood of significant fluctuations in price during oscillations. Support and resistance factors indicate that around $4300 is an important area of contention between bulls and bears.

Why is there a market smash under positive news? Behind the phrase 'let the bullets fly for a while', we need to dig deeper from the perspective of expectation differences and capital games, combining the current non-farm data and the market structure to clearly glimpse:
Expected overdraft and the game of 'pseudo-positive news': the non-farm data only releases signals of 'possible interest rate cuts', rather than the actual implementation of 'interest rate cuts', and this difference becomes the key contradiction. For ordinary investors, the expectation of interest rate cuts easily triggers a tendency to go long; but from the perspective of capital and whales, 'expectation ≠ reality'—the market has already priced in the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the current signal has not exceeded expectations, instead becoming a 'trap for shorts': by smashing the market to create panic, retail investors are compelled to hand over their chips, waiting for the actual interest rate cut data to be announced and for market sentiment to resonate, before completing the 'netting' after accumulating at low positions.

The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September has basically been confirmed, and there is a possibility of further easing. This easing environment will enhance the attractiveness of assets to risk preferences, thereby increasing the potential for ETH to rise 17.
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" strategy: If you wish to cautiously participate in the rebound during the interest rate cut window, it is recommended to appropriately position yourself before the economic data is released to guard against excessive pullbacks 37. According to the statistics of on-chain whale address holdings, large holders' positions have increased by 14% over the past 5 months, and a large amount of funds have entered staking agreements. This indicates that smart money is firmly optimistic about the long-term value of ETH, reinforcing the logic of a bullish outlook 6.

Last night's market was like you taking a taxi to catch a flight, just as you were about to arrive, the driver took a detour — originally, the non-farm data was good, everyone thought it could soar, but ETH first blew up the shorts, then reversed to smash the longs, a double kill, with a liquidation amount of $348 million! This wave of main force operation is comparable to the 'textbook of cutting leeks'. The question arises: after last night's harvest, is ETH going to rest today, or prepare for the second wave of harvesting?
Market sentiment: bullish turned bearish, funds are playing psychological warfare
Yesterday's data was clearly bullish, but the market told you in the harshest way: the trend is not driven by fundamentals, but by human emotions and fund logic

[Star R] The basic composition of candlesticks
Opening price: The first transaction price of the trading day.
Closing price: The last transaction price of the trading day.
Highest price: The highest transaction price during the trading day. Lowest price: The lowest transaction price during the trading day. A candlestick typically consists of three parts:
Upper shadow: Located above the candlestick, indicating the price range between the highest price and the closing price (or opening price, depending on the candlestick's color).
Body: Indicates the price range between the opening price and the closing price. A bullish candlestick (red or white) indicates that the closing price is higher than the opening price, while a bearish candlestick (green or black) indicates that the closing price is lower than the opening price.