BTC静静说

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经过了一年山寨熊市时间，很多市场共识已经颠覆了。

1、已经很久没人再提大饼吸血山寨，人们意识到了高FDV和解锁。

2、好像并不存在BTC 涨完，轮到 ETH，再轮到山寨这种关系。

3、传统机构资金更偏向 BTC和主流币。

4、抛开头部不谈，VC背书的价值大跌。

5、加密叙事没有消失，但是纯叙事已经不会再撬动市场的投机倾向。

6、大量VC项目的代币经济学、筹码结构、退出路径，根本不配上架CEX来定价。

7、代币上线CEX后不一定会带来买盘，大部分项目上所后的表现很简单，即是早期群体在出货。

8、撸空投很赚钱的神话崩塌了（崩了1年了，目前空投赛道如同尸体）。

9、流动性并没有均匀扩散到所有山寨，与争抢和锁定价值的能力有关系。

Tonight at 21:30: the non-farm payrolls 'announcement', is it a good opportunity to increase positions or a moment to avoid risks?
Official script (market expectations):

Non-farm employment population: Expected 59,000 (compared to 130,000 in January, this is a huge 'slowdown').

Unemployment rate: Expected 4.3% (at a recent high; if it continues to rise, the recession alarm will sound).

🧐
How do retail investors see it? Three 'announcement' scripts:

Script A: Data is worse than expected (for example, employment less than 30,000, unemployment rate rising to 4.4%)

Retail mindset: 'Oh no, the economy is going to recession!'

Market logic: Such 'bad news' is actually 'good news'. This means the Federal Reserve will have to consider cutting interest rates to rescue the market.

Reaction: The dollar may plunge, while Bitcoin and gold are likely to surge violently.

Script B: Data is better than expected (for example, employment exceeds 100,000, unemployment rate drops to 4.2%)

Retail mindset: 'The U.S. economy is too strong, everyone has a job!'

Market logic: Such 'good news' is 'bad news'. The Federal Reserve will think: since employment is so good, I won’t rush to cut interest rates; high rates will continue to be maintained.

Reaction: The dollar strengthens, which is a significant negative for risk assets like Bitcoin, likely leading to a sell-off.

Script C: Data meets expectations (around 59,000, 4.3% unchanged)

Reaction: The market may first experience 'spikes' up and down to wash out positions, then continue to move sideways, waiting for next week's CPI inflation data.

How should we operate?

Reject 'betting on size': In the few minutes when the data is released at 21:30, market fluctuations will be extremely bizarre, often pulling up first then crashing or crashing first then pulling up. It’s recommended that retail investors close high leverage positions, or simply wait half an hour until the trend has stabilized before acting.

Keep a close eye on the key point of '4.3%' for the unemployment rate: The current market is very sensitive to recession. If the unemployment rate unexpectedly surges (for example, to 4.5%), although in the long term a rate cut is beneficial, in the short term it may trigger a panic sell-off (commonly referred to as 'recession kill').

In summary: Tonight's data is to set the market 'tone'. It is recommended to wait until after 22:00 to observe the real acceptance power after the U.S. stock market opens before making a decision.

At 9:30 tonight, are you prepared to stay on the sidelines or have you already set your orders for 'bottom fishing' or 'chasing the rise'?

Don't take this rebound as redemption
On-chain activity is low, and there's not much heat in CEX; altcoins occasionally pull along with Bitcoin, but funds have not returned

Projects with real speculative value will be retained during this round of fluctuations, while junk projects will ultimately trend towards zero

What is more suitable to do now is: reduce positions, maintain discipline, and wait for both trading volume and structure to confirm before buying

The market never owes you an opportunity to open a position; patience and risk control are the underlying logic for long-term profits

Now it's all about patience and confidence!

Recently, I've been thinking about a question:
Since there are so many shoddy products, 80 or 90 percent are.
This round of the bear market in our industry is to completely eliminate these garbage products.
Currently, do you have any cryptocurrencies in mind that are truly worth investing in during the bear market, besides Bitcoin and Ethereum? Even after this bull market, I estimate that there will be fewer believers in Ethereum, as this bull market has been very poor and hasn't outperformed Bitcoin.
I believe that the future will definitely improve, and there will surely be projects worth holding onto.
This situation also occurred after the ICOs went to zero in the bear market of 2018.

When the market is generally hesitant and unwilling to enter, it is often the best time to position at low levels—selling pressure has significantly eased, and holdings are stabilizing. WHY the current circulating pool of this project is extremely small, with a market value of only a few million dollars, but community activity and discussion intensity continue to soar, with large orders frequently appearing; the main funds are quietly and continuously accumulating. The price is being precisely suppressed around 0.0000120, forming a typical "extremely low volume + high popularity" divergence—this is a classic signal of the main force's control and buildup. In low market value, small pool projects, this structure is extremely rare; once incremental funds or market sentiment reverses, the accumulated buying will trigger a geometric explosive surge, with potential returns far exceeding conventional targets.

#why

The most aggressive cryptocurrency trader in South Korea can no longer hold on. As everyone knows, the South Korean stock market is referred to as the 'canary in the coal mine' for the global economy. The KOSPI index has dropped by 5%, which may convey several points:

1. It is catching up on the declines of gold and silver from last Friday, following today’s downward trend in precious metals.

2. South Korea is the most aggressive country for cryptocurrency trading in the world, much more so than the Chinese. Gains and losses come from the same source; the kimchi premium during rises creates significant pressure for margin calls during declines, extracting liquidity from the stock market and causing further drops.

3. The U.S. stock market hasn’t opened yet, but pre-market futures have already fallen, making tonight potentially even harder to endure.

4. The dollar index is rebounding, which may indicate that the world is selling assets to exchange for dollars as a safe haven, further escalating the liquidity crisis.

What can save you, my BSC?

Big Brother @cz_binance, if you don't bring a solid asset and share some Alpha soon, the #memecoin market on BSC is really going to be doomed!

The market liquidity was already low, and BASE is taking a share. It used to be a two-tiger struggle, but now it has turned into a three-legged competition. I've already seen many brothers go to BASE; with fewer users, both the speculators and DEV will have to leave.

Er Sheng, please don't stay silent any longer. The best way to recover is to have a plate worth over ten million as a benchmark; daily transactions of one or two million can no longer stir everyone's passion!

Currently recognized globally, as a person in the cryptocurrency space, do not get carried away:
Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, but a high-leverage risk product, its greatness will only be reflected when liquidity is abundant. Why does a bull market come every time there's a monetary easing or interest rate cut?
When Bitcoin becomes a safe-haven asset recognized worldwide, it is estimated that Bitcoin would have already reached a million dollars, and the fiat currency system would have collapsed long ago.
On a positive note: the crypto industry is still in its early stages, and you still have a chance.

Currently, the market's reputation for Chinese exchanges is polarized

Those making money from exchanges are praising them

Those losing money from exchanges are criticizing them

Whether to praise or criticize, I am also unclear

The best way is to have a wave of general bull market

If everyone makes money, then everyone will be harmonious

Friend, how many times have you hit the wall? There is a saying that is very good: rotten mud is already rotten, yet it insists on being propped up against the wall; a salted fish lies comfortably, yet it insists on being turned over; a piece of decayed wood insists on being carved into material.
In the world of cryptocurrency traders, there is only selection, no education; only choice, no change.
If one does not awaken, how can others help? If one awakens, what need is there for others to help?
What can persuade a person is never reason, but the wall!
What can awaken a person is never preaching, but hardships.
People teaching people cannot teach; experiences teach people, once is enough.
Suffering is like eating; if you eat too much, you naturally grow.
So in the circles we mix in, have you really grown? Or is it just talk?

The trend of silver and the current situation of short squeezing should put considerable pressure on some foreign investment banks! #Silver Next step $150 per ounce, prepare for launch
🚀
!

In addition to the geopolitical instability we are familiar with, there are tensions in Greenland and Iran.

The key point is that the United States plans to intervene in the yen, preventing its depreciation, which first requires printing new dollars to purchase yen. The yen strengthened significantly this morning, leading to a sharp drop in the dollar index, which briefly fell below 97.

This will greatly benefit gold and #BTC, although #BTC still shows weakness, the CME contract data is accumulating energy!

With Trump TACO, U.S. stocks as risk assets surged, VIX fell, and panic sentiment dissipated.

But gold, as a safe-haven asset, also rose, which is a bit strange without large-scale liquidity injection.

BTC also got chaotic, and neither risk assets nor safe-haven assets are following each other.

Why are U.S. stocks and gold rising together, while Bitcoin is taking a hit?

Geopolitical risks have not been completely eliminated, especially the Iran issue we mentioned repeatedly a few days ago, with Trump posting to validate.

Neither side wants to get stuck in a quagmire; either a quick success or a final compromise, with more impact leaning towards short-term disturbances.

Iran's protests have been suppressed for the most part, losing the best timing for action, making the probability of taking action lower and the chance of getting stuck in a quagmire even lower.

This weekend, the risks may be alleviated.

The recovery of risk assets is relatively cautious, with early-stage liquidity recovery, and the market value and trading volume of gold are 10 times that of BTC.

Bitcoin still has to wait for the risks to be alleviated, as liquidity in the gold market flows out.

Persist a little longer, get through this week's big test, and if there are no issues with the economic data in early February, spring will have arrived. Bottoming out from early January to early February.

Filter out the noise, focus on the main line for the whole of 2026: moderate economic weakening, inflation falling, liquidity improving, global fiscal expansion, semiconductor shortages, and crypto deregulation!

During this wave of continuous pullback, 88.5k of long liquidity has been liquidated, but there has been no further liquidation of 86k liquidity...

Since the distribution of futures liquidity only records openings and not closings, we currently cannot confirm how much huge liquidity is still here?

Therefore, the only reference we can use is the change in spot premium. Since the spot premium slightly increased last night, we can speculate that a considerable amount of long positions have indeed been closed...

Thus, in the short term, the market may choose to first rebound and then liquidate downwards.

The reasons for today's Bitcoin crash
1. Trump has initiated new geopolitical conflicts, causing safe-haven funds to flee
2. U.S. stocks fell before the market opened, leading to a drop in the cryptocurrency market
3. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows for several days, exceeding $700 million

Bitcoin is currently the most decentralized investment product, as most of the chips are in the hands of individuals, with numerous participants ranging from global asset management to listed companies and government individuals. The only one who has the most say, Satoshi Nakamoto, has not appeared for over a decade and is most likely deceased, and the total issuance is capped at 21 million coins, with future growth potential comparable to today's gold.

The prerequisite for getting rich:

It's not that you, as the '10u Battle God', have eaten the 100 times many times.

But when blue chips emerge, you happen to be heavily invested in the car.

I don't even know which one I'm talking about.

$1? Life K-line? Mountains and fields for miles? Treading horses? crypto winter?

Why is it hard for the poor to make money?

Because they want to make money too much, they hope to make money too much, their minds are full of money, and they are too eager for quick success.

They are constantly pursuing something certain, which is: what can guarantee quick money.

It's like pursuing a button that, when pressed, will make them rich immediately.

If someone asks me: What can make money this year?

Sorry, if you think like that, I can only answer that in reality, making money is very difficult and almost anything you do has little profit.

Because the things that can make money in the world are definitely uncertain, and the things that can make big money are extremely uncertain.

Only uncertainty can help you keep your competitors out, only by not knowing whether you can make money can you eliminate the most competitors and enjoy that share of the bonus.

Many people are keen on getting certifications, eager to improve themselves in various aspects, like learning accounting and English.

These are not bad, but they have a problem: they are certain.

In other words, everyone knows they are good, and everyone knows they are useful to learn.

That will definitely attract countless competitors until the profits are leveled.

So any project that can visibly make money will inevitably have its profits dissipated in the competition.

What can truly change fate in this world are precisely those seemingly useless knowledge, those that you are not clear about the short-term returns after learning.

Only this kind of long-term, not eager for quick success, not just looking at the present, and uncertain knowledge can help you shake off most competitors, can allow you to understand the rules before competing, allowing you to exceed your opponents by dozens or hundreds of times at the level of the framework.

The efforts of many people are efforts that progress step by step, efforts to learn what is useful.

They are extremely shrewd, believing that they never waste energy in useless areas.

But it is precisely this shrewdness that misleads them, keeping their eyes fixed on the present, fearing that if they stop, they will lose the immediate benefits, while blindly moving forward at the critical crossroads of life.

After struggling for half a lifetime, they are empty-handed.

If you want to turn your life around from the bottom, you must remember three words:

Against human nature.

The current charity, I call 'Internet Charity' or 'Traffic Charity'. Charity should be a mutual kindness, but now it has become a tool for gaining attention.

True charity is about helping those in need, not using donations to endorse one's own persona. Any donation with a 'purpose' is 'hypocritical'—because they want to use donations to gain traffic, 'atone for sins', or exchange for rewards.

True charity is the kind of pure 'almsgiving'!