一木-玩合约

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Dovish rate cut warnings, is the crypto frenzy just a flash in the pan?
​​The expectation of "cutting rates but not continuing cuts" is essentially dousing cold water on the crypto frenzy.
​​Let’s break down the core logic: a dovish rate cut is fundamentally about "cutting once and stopping," completely different from the market's previous expectation of a "rate cut cycle." It’s important to understand how sensitive the crypto market is to liquidity—last year, when the Federal Reserve signaled a rate cut, BTC shot up from $60,000 to $100,000, driven by expectations of continued liquidity. But this time is different; the U.S. economic data hasn’t collapsed yet, and both employment and inflation haven’t reached a hard landing stage, so the Federal Reserve has no need to continuously cut rates, which means that the market's hope for a "massive liquidity injection" is likely to be dashed.
​​For the crypto market, there might be a short-term impulse rise, as the rate cut will release some liquidity, and mainstream coins like BTC and ETH may catch some heat. But don’t expect the rise to last too long; once the Federal Reserve clearly states "pausing rate cuts," funds will immediately realize the expectation gap, and retail investors who chased the highs may get trapped. Especially for altcoins, many meme coins are already being speculated on the expectation of a rate cut, and they are likely to crash first.
​​Also, watch for the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve—if some members advocate for a larger rate cut, market sentiment may swing back and forth. However, given the current economic fundamentals, a dovish stance is likely, as no one wants to repeat the inflation disaster of 2021.
​​The advice for friends in the crypto space is simple: on the day the rate cut is announced, don’t chase the highs; instead, consider reducing positions in mainstream coins at a high. If the Federal Reserve really pauses rate cuts afterwards, the crypto market is likely to retest previous support levels, at which point buying in low would be the more prudent choice.
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It seems that the ten-year $1 trillion salary cannot cover Musk's ambitions. SpaceX plans to go public in 2026 with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion. What does that mean? It's more than the combined value of Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu (around $1.16 trillion as of December 10)! Of course, in terms of current profitability, Starlink is far more profitable than Starship. Starlink's revenue is expected to be $7 billion in 2024 and $9 billion in 205, making it undoubtedly SpaceX's cash cow, while Starship's rocket launches are basically not profitable, still in the technical verification phase, and there is no regular commercial launch revenue yet. Starlink is advancing rapidly, with direct mobile connections, global spectrum, and services launched in 156 countries: South Korea launched on December 4, and India's Starlink package is expected to be available by early 2026. Other countries in line include Uzbekistan, Rwanda, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and more. If SpaceX's IPO valuation can reach $1.5 trillion in 2026, it will surpass Tesla to become the highest-valued company under Musk. At that time, with SpaceX's salary incentives, Musk's compensation is expected to rise even further. $BTC $ETH $AXL

哈塞特最有希望接任美联储主席，却最不得人心
​尽管市场普遍预期白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）将被任命为下一任美联储主席，但 CNBC 美联储调查的受访者却明确表示他并非首选。
​这份 12 月的调查显示，84%的受访者认为美国总统特朗普将提名哈塞特执掌美联储。但仅有 11%的人认为总统“应该”这么做。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）则获得 47%受访者的支持，位居第一，凯文·沃尔什（Kevin Warsh）以 23%的支持率紧随其后。不过，仅有 5%的受访者认为特朗普会提名这两人中的任何一位。
​对哈塞特的担忧似乎集中在他对美联储双重使命及独立性的坚守上。76%的受访者认为，下一任美联储主席将比现任主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更偏鸽派——即劳动力市场疲软时更快降息，面对超目标通胀时更晚加息。51%的多数受访者认为，下一任?席可能会满足特朗普的降息诉求，41%的人则认为他会独立行事。
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【Key Focus: Trump's Former Lawyer Resigns as U.S. Attorney for New Jersey】
On December 8, 2025, Washington time, Trump's former lawyer Alina Habba stated in a statement:
I will resign as the U.S. Attorney for New Jersey. The appellate court's ruling is politically motivated (note: the appellate court found that she was illegally holding the position), and the resignation is to protect the stability and integrity of the office. But do not mistake resignation for surrender; this decision will not weaken the Department of Justice, nor will it weaken me.
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Musk, not sleeping in the early morning, directly splashed a basin of cold water on people around the world.
Musk stated in the early morning that war is inevitable within five to ten years. He mentioned that the high global debt and sluggish productivity growth are potential risks, and he also worries that low birth rates may threaten the survival of civilization, but he did not explicitly list these two points as direct causes of war; regarding artificial intelligence, he is more wary of the civilizational risks brought about by its militarization rather than viewing it as a catalyst for war.
Musk and other prominent figures tend to focus on the global landscape and deep-seated hidden dangers, which indeed differs from the concerns of ordinary people.
Ordinary people, although busy with work and life, are not powerless to influence; paying attention to and spreading reasonable understanding is also a way to participate, and there's no need to fall into helpless despair. This is precisely the difference in perspectives between different groups when viewing the world.
Musk's early warning indeed hits the deep-seated hidden dangers globally, but there is no need to be overly anxious.
It is normal for big figures to focus on global risks while ordinary people care about daily livelihood; the difference in focus is quite normal.
Although we may find it difficult to influence the larger framework, understanding the truth and rationally spreading it is a small yet real power.
Instead of falling into despair, it is better to focus on the present; this pragmatic attitude is the confidence that ordinary people have in facing the unknown.
Let’s take good care of the following days and not be anxious.
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Nvidia has been approved to sell H200 chips to China, requiring a 25% share to be paid to the U.S. government
On December 9, Beijing time, Bloomberg reported that U.S. President Trump has approved Nvidia's export of its H200 AI chips to China, on the condition that the U.S. government can take a 25% share from the sales. This move marks a significant lobbying victory for Nvidia and could potentially help it regain the billions of dollars in business lost in this crucial global market.

Trump announced this decision on his Truth Social platform, ending weeks of discussions with advisors about whether to approve the export of the H200 chips to China. He added that sales will be limited to "approved customers," and the U.S. government will receive a 25% share. Other chip manufacturers, including Intel and AMD, will also be eligible for licenses to sell chips to China.

"We will protect national security, create American jobs, and maintain America's leadership in the AI field," Trump stated in his post. "Nvidia's American customers are already deploying its exceptional, cutting-edge Blackwell chips, and will soon deploy Rubin chips, neither of which are included in this agreement." Rubin is Nvidia's more advanced chip series.

Before Trump announced this decision, a knowledgeable source indicated that approving Nvidia's export of the H200 to China was a compromise based on the previous generation Hopper architecture. Previously, Nvidia had lobbied the Trump administration to sell its more advanced Blackwell chips to Chinese customers.

For Nvidia, being granted permission to sell H200 chips to China represents a victory in pushing Trump and Congress to ease export controls. These controls have been preventing Nvidia from selling its AI chips to China, the world's second-largest economy. Since the U.S. election in November 2024, Jensen Huang has developed a close relationship with Trump and leveraged this relationship to articulate his view: export controls only serve to help domestic Chinese giants like Huawei.

As of the time of publication, neither the U.S. Department of Commerce nor Nvidia has commented on this matter.
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Wall Street is now buzzing with news more explosive than interest rate cuts! Did you think Powell only cuts rates? Wrong! A former New York Fed expert predicts: the Fed may announce a "monthly $45 billion" bond purchase program next week!
🤫 Is invisible QE approaching?
Don't be fooled by the official name "Reserve Management Purchases (RMP)"; this is essentially a form of quantitative easing (QE). In official terms, it means the Fed is directly pulling money to buy bonds, injecting real cash into the market.
Once the faucet of $45 billion a month is turned on, market liquidity will receive an epic boost! This is not just an ordinary drip; this is a torrent of water!
🏦 Why is the Fed in such a hurry to release liquidity?
Expert interpretation: The Fed is scared! They are worried that the banking system might suddenly "run out of money" (Repo crisis) like in 2019, causing short-term interest rates to spike uncontrollably. Rather than firefighting afterward, it's better to proactively inject liquidity, allowing everyone to be a bit more relaxed.
This is "proactive liquidity injection", which is simply a windfall for us investors!
🚀 Is a double celebration coming?
If this plan is really announced next Wednesday (or at any time), then that means +QE🔥#Will the Fed cut rates?# #If there's no money shortage, would you still work?#
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UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will purchase $40 billion in government bonds each month in 2026
Federal Reserve buying → liquidity increases → cryptocurrency prices soar
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Key time points for next week:
1. Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, December 9 to December 10.
2. ZY Economic Work Conference, December 11 to December 12.
3. Japan interest rate meeting, December 18 to December 19.
4. Monthly settlement disaster days, December 19, December 24, December 30.
Last week left a gap without a breakthrough, which seems not very sincere. Every time a major wave begins, the securities usually surge for two to three days. So there's no need to rush into it; mainly observe tomorrow. See if there is a volume increase, if the securities continue to soar, and if they can break through this gap. If the above points are met, then chase after it, there's still time to take a big bite of the major wave.
Conversely, if tomorrow starts with flat volume or decreased volume, and just touches the gap, then starts to go down. Therefore, there’s still no need to rush. Looking at this adjustment, the overall trend shows that time is still insufficient. Moreover, next week and the end of this month have several key time points that some large funds are also paying attention to.
Overall, based on all current messages, both upward and downward movements are possible. As mature players, we need to perform on the spot. Adapt to changes!
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The real focus of next week's Federal Reserve meeting is not about cutting interest rates at all. A 25 basis point cut? That's just fireworks for the spectators. The real rocket launch is that the balance sheet will be reopened for liquidity.
Former New York Fed expert Mark Cabana has burst the bubble. He predicts that the Federal Reserve will announce starting in January next year, they will inject $45 billion each month to buy Treasury bonds. This is no small matter; it's directly pumping money into the financial system. They've given this operation a low-key name called 'Reserve Management Purchases' (RMP), simply put, they don't want to be criticized and are afraid to mention the term quantitative easing (QE) again.
Why have repo market rates been rising recently? Because the reserves in the banking system have run low. The pipes are almost dry, and everyone needs to scramble for short-term funding, which naturally drives up costs. This scene happened once in 2019, resulting in a liquidity crisis. The folks at the Fed are very clear in their minds; their three years of quantitative tightening (QT) have drained too much blood from the market, and now they need to inject some back.
So don’t be fooled by the jargon of 'technical adjustments.' This is balance sheet expansion. This is liquidity injection. $45 billion a month, lasting at least six months, is much fiercer than Citigroup's prediction of $20 billion. They will also handle term repo operations simultaneously, acting directly as temporary firefighters.
The timing is also interesting. Powell is a caretaker chair, and his term is about to end; Trump might want Hassett to take over. Letting the liquidity out now essentially sets the tone for the next person. If the new chair wants to do something significant, they need to have some bullets in hand.
The market has become numb to interest rate cuts. A slight dip from the peak in rates doesn't change the tightness of funding. But balance sheet expansion is a different matter. Once the faucet is turned on, the first to overflow will definitely be those assets that are short on liquidity. U.S. Treasuries will gain value, gold will shine, and the dollar may weaken.
Remember, keep an eye on whether Powell mentions the term 'RMP' next week. Interest rate cuts are old news; the bond purchase plan is the headline. Liquidity is king; everything else is accompaniment.
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Yesterday, the boss of the Bitcoin MicroStrategy stated at the Binance Blockchain Week that the company's strategy is:
​If the company's stock price rises above the Bitcoin value per share, we will distribute stocks to the market for financing;
​If the stock price drops below the Bitcoin value per share, we will sell Bitcoin or related derivatives to supplement cash.
​Sell stocks when the price is high, sell coins when the price is low,
It's about selling whichever is more advantageous.
​Currently, the mNAV displayed on the Strategy official website is 1.16, indicating that there is still some space before the company sells BTC.
​This is also speculated by various media outlets currently.
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Is the $800 billion valuation a misunderstanding? Musk personally clarifies SpaceX financing rumors
[Global Network Technology Comprehensive Report] On December 7, Reuters reported that Tesla CEO Elon Musk spoke out on his personal social media platform, directly refuting the recent heated discussion about the rumor that "SpaceX is conducting financing at an $800 billion valuation," clearly stating that the related information is inaccurate, which has attracted widespread attention in the industry.
As one of the most valued private technology companies in the world, SpaceX's financing dynamics and valuation changes have always been a focus of the capital market. Once the rumor of an $800 billion valuation financing emerged, it quickly sparked heated discussions. If this valuation is true, it would place SpaceX far ahead of many tech giants, making it one of the highest-valued private companies globally. However, Musk's timely refutation broke this speculation and refocused the market on SpaceX's financial status and development strategy.
Musk emphasized in his statement that SpaceX's core financial advantage lies in "maintaining positive cash flow for many years," and this key information dispelled outside speculation about its reliance on financing to maintain operations. At the same time, he revealed that the company conducts regular stock buybacks twice a year, with the core purpose of providing liquidity support for employees and investors. This operation not only reflects the company's protection of the rights of internal teams and early investors but also indirectly confirms the robustness of its financial status—operating without relying on external financing, relying solely on its operational cash flow to support business operations and shareholder returns.
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The Underrated Ethereum - Tom Lee: Ethereum Will Rise to $62,000!
​At the recent Binance Dubai Blockchain Week, Tom Lee once again became the center of attention. His calls never cease, and this time he boldly stated: Ethereum will reach $60,000 in the coming years.
​Key points are as follows:
​· Bitcoin and Ethereum are the engines of the entire Web3 world
​· Asset tokenization has redefined the narrative logic of ETH
​· Focus on the ETH/BTC ratio (which is about to break through soon 😮): ETH will become the underlying channel for future financial payments, and a reasonable ETH/BTC ratio should be 0.25.
​In other words: When Bitcoin rises to $250,000, the reasonable target price for Ethereum would be $60,000
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U.S. inflation unexpectedly cooled in September, seemingly adding another reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week.
The U.S. Department of Commerce released a key inflation indicator on Friday showing that the inflation rate in September was lower than expected. This report, delayed due to the government shutdown, could further signal a green light for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
Data showed that the so-called core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy items, rose 0.2% month-on-month, unchanged from August data and in line with market expectations; the year-on-year growth rate unexpectedly fell to 2.8%, hitting a three-month low, while the market had expected a continuous third month of 2.9%.
Federal Reserve officials use the PCE price index as a primary policy tool for measuring inflation. Although officials will also consider overall and core data, they generally believe core data is a better indicator for measuring long-term inflation trends.
This report was delayed by several weeks due to the government shutdown, during which all data collection and economic reporting were suspended. Regarding the next PCE data, the Bureau of Economic Analysis stated that the release date for the next data has not yet been rescheduled.
Consumer pullback indicates that before the longest government shutdown in history began on October 1, the main growth engine of the U.S. economy was already slowing. Although more recent data shows that, as shoppers seek discounts, “Black Friday” sales are performing well, consumers are increasingly anxious about the job market, with spending mainly driven by wealthier households.
Another report released on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose for the first time in five months in early December. The rise in the University of Michigan index reflects that, with improved inflation expectations, people are more optimistic about their personal financial prospects.
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold a roundtable on cryptocurrency and privacy on December 15.

Wu stated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold a roundtable on cryptocurrency, financial surveillance, and privacy on December 15. The agenda has been updated, and it will be hosted by SEC executives, including Chairman Paul S. Atkins and Crypto Task Force Director Richard B. Gabbert, with invitations extended to Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox and several representatives from the cryptocurrency and blockchain fields to speak.
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