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In the panic of the market crash on December 1, a group of crypto whales calmly completed a series of precise operations, and by December 8, one of them had realized an unrealized profit of 2347 million USD on ETH.

While retail investors were panicking in the face of the severe fluctuations in the crypto market at the beginning of December, a group of large holders known as 'whales' were quietly positioning themselves.

On-chain data shows that during the period from December 1 to 10, several well-known whales achieved significant profits through precise operations, and their operating patterns revealed a calm strategy that transcended market sentiment.

The U.S. banking system is on the brink of liquidity stress, a signal largely overlooked by the market that may reveal the Federal Reserve's future policy direction more than the rate cuts themselves.

On December 1, the Federal Reserve officially ended its years-long process of reducing its balance sheet. At this time, the reserves in the U.S. banking system had fallen to levels historically associated with financing stress, and overnight financing rates began to periodically test the upper limit of the policy interest rate corridor.

The market's focus is almost entirely on the magnitude of the reduction in the federal funds rate, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point cut. However, the core signal from this meeting may be hidden in a widely underestimated area — the new strategy for the balance sheet that the Federal Reserve is about to disclose.

The price of Bitcoin fluctuates within a narrow range of $84,000 to $91,000, with market sentiment caught in a delicate balance between panic selling and short covering.

The Bitfinex Alpha report reveals a core contradiction: the market is close to a local bottom and has conditions for stabilization, but is far from healthy. Over 7 million Bitcoins are in an unrealized loss state, reflecting the difficulty the market faces in reclaiming the true market average.

The S&P 500 index is nearing historical highs, while Bitcoin struggles within a narrow range, exacerbating the structural weakness in the market.

Despite a floating loss exceeding $3 billion, cryptocurrency investment firm BitMine accelerated its purchase of 138,000 Ethereum last week, with the buying speed surging by 156% compared to four weeks ago.

As Ethereum prices hover around $3100, the 3.86 million ETH held by BitMine Immersion Technologies is currently in a floating loss, with an average cost as high as $3925.

However, this company not only did not reduce its holdings but instead increased its holdings by 138,452 ETH in the past week, bringing its total Ethereum holdings to 3,864,951, accounting for about 3.2% of the total Ethereum supply.

1. Increasing holdings against the trend

Introduction

I believe everyone has recently noticed that market volatility has intensified, with the VIX panic index rising again, causing investors' sentiments to fluctuate along with the stock market. The so-called 'panic index' is not only an important indicator for institutions to observe market risk but has also gradually become a reference tool for ordinary investors to understand market sentiment and assess the rhythm of volatility.

Looking back at history, every rapid rise in the VIX has been accompanied by market panic: during the 2008 financial crisis, the VIX broke 80; at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, the VIX soared to around 85; during the peak of inflation in 2022, the VIX remained high for a long time. It seems to be a mirror reflecting the tension and anxiety of the market.

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The market holds its breath for the last interest rate decision of the year, as the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and the power struggle for the future chairmanship are pushing the world's most influential central bank toward a crossroads filled with uncertainty.

Tonight, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision for December, with markets widely expecting a 25 basis point cut. This could be another 'dovish' victory that current Chairman Powell has struggled to achieve amid the sharp opposition between the 'hawks' and 'doves'.

At the same time, a power struggle that will determine the direction of the Federal Reserve for the next few years has entered its final stage. President Trump canceled the previously scheduled final interview, suggesting that he already has a candidate in mind. The most popular candidate, Kevin Hassett, publicly stated on the eve of the meeting that there is 'ample room' for future rate cuts, potentially exceeding 25 basis points.

1. Russian President Putin stated that no one can ban bitcoin

Russian President Putin stated that no one can ban bitcoin. - Original

2. White House official Hassett: The Federal Reserve still has ample room to cut interest rates

Kevin Hassett, director of the U.S. White House National Economic Council, stated that the Federal Reserve still has ample room to cut interest rates. - Original

3. Gold reached a record high of over $4200 per ounce, rising 0.23% during the day

4. BlackRock transferred 272.293 BTC to Coinbase Prime, valued at $24.58 million

About 1 hour ago, BlackRock transferred 272.293 bitcoins to Coinbase Prime address, worth approximately $24.58 million. - Original

Event Review 🚀

Recently, the Bitcoin market has experienced a dramatic fluctuation, as if a waking beast has launched a fierce assault under the impetus of multiple positive news and loose macro policies. From White House officials echoing interest rate cut expectations, to institutional giants ringing the bell consecutively, ETF listings, and banks opening spot access services, to the continuous triggering of buy orders by exchange liquidation events, the overall market sentiment is high, with institutional funds entering the market in large amounts. Within just a few hours, the BTC price surged from around $90,245 at night to over $94,000, with a cumulative increase of more than 4.6%, fully demonstrating the market's strong response to institutional positives and expectations of macro loosening.

📈 Event Review

Recently, Ethereum (ETH) staged a stunning market rebound in a very short time. Market data shows that starting from 23:00, the price of ETH rapidly rose from about $3114 to $3297, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5.81%. Multiple technical indicators and large transactions indicate that market buying is exceptionally active, with whale-level funds and algorithmic trading emerging as important driving forces in this round of market activity. Meanwhile, macro-level expectations for easing and increased institutional funding have provided liquidity support for ETH, helping risk assets to experience a strong rebound in the short term.

As usual, let's talk about the current market situation. Still the same phrase: just sharing ideas, not giving trading advice.

In the BTC 45-minute cycle, although the position volume is increasing, it is rising very slowly, and the trading volume is still out of sync with the price trend (divergence).

If we want to surge in the short term, we need to pay attention to the range of 93000~93050 — it's where the most chips are piled up, and there’s a lot of selling pressure from the main forces, and these are all spot orders.

The short-term support to watch closely is 89295, which is where the chip peak is concentrated.

Looking at ETH, the situation is just like BTC, they are truly 'difficult brothers'.

1. Bitcoin is weak rather than strong

In the past week, a significant divergence trend has been forming: while the S&P 500 index continues to hover near historic highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and relatively stable macroeconomic expectations, the price of Bitcoin has been trapped in a narrow range oscillating between $84,000 and $91,000. This divergence is not a signal of Bitcoin leading the market, but rather clear evidence of its increasing relative weakness.

According to the latest Alpha report analysis from Bitfinex, the core of this decoupling phenomenon lies in the fundamental differences between the two. Traditional stock markets benefit from corporate earnings resilience and a controllable narrative of economic slowdown, while Bitcoin is currently constrained by its internal structural issues.

After receiving a pardon from U.S. President Trump and experiencing a dramatic turn in personal fate, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) recently publicly accepted an in-depth group interview for the first time. He not only shared his grand prediction for a cryptocurrency industry that could reach a scale of $40 trillion but also rare insight into his tumultuous journey and unique life philosophy. This interview outlines a complex picture interwoven with industry evolution, company strategy, and personal beliefs.

1. Industry Future Blueprint: From Payment Breakthrough to Trillion-Dollar Market

CZ believes that for cryptocurrency to truly enter the daily lives of the public, breakthroughs in the payment sector are key. He recalled that the original design of the Bitcoin white paper was as a 'peer-to-peer electronic cash payment system,' but to this day, speculative financial products dominate the blockchain, and truly usable payment methods have yet to become widespread.

The winter of Binance Alpha, cycles, and the next wave of foreshadowing
The number of active users in Binance Alpha has fallen below 150,000 for the first time.
Studios are exiting on a large scale, with a continuous wave of resignations from 'workers'; there is even a unified narrative within the community: 'Alpha is dead.'
Is it really like this?

Is it the end? It's just the cyclical law, not the conclusion.
The recent Alpha indeed exudes a sense of 'receding tide':
The early profit window has closed.
The cost of score manipulation has increased.
The yield structure has been exhausted by studios.
The ecosystem has entered a cooling period.

But this is not death; it is the arrival of a new cyclical opportunity.

The prediction market data is rapidly cooling, with the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 by the end of the year dropping from a recent 45% to a collective wait-and-see approach among traders before the year's end. Polymarket prediction contracts show that the probability of betting on Bitcoin breaking $100,000 by the end of 2025 has fallen to 45%, while the probability of it dropping below $80,000 has reached 34%.

In early December, Bitcoin's price plummeted by 7%, having adjusted about 31% from the historical high on October 6, with the entire cryptocurrency market's market capitalization evaporating by over a trillion dollars.

1. The thermometer of the prediction market

● The prediction market, as a barometer of sentiment in the crypto space, is clearly recording the entire process of declining investor confidence. On the Polymarket platform, the prediction data regarding whether Bitcoin can return to $100,000 before the end of the year is stuck at 45%, which is close to a 'fifty-fifty' hesitation state.

1. Trump was named the most influential person of 2025, reshaping the crypto landscape.

U.S. President Trump has been named the most influential person of 2025, having the greatest impact on the political landscape of cryptocurrency this year. The Trump administration shifted from skepticism to open support, placing digital assets at the center of U.S. economic strategy. This change has brought regulatory momentum, institutional confidence, and discussions about the future role of cryptocurrency in America. -Original

2. BlackRock transferred $78.3 million worth of Ethereum to Coinbase.

BlackRock transferred 24,791 Ethereum to Coinbase Prime, worth approximately $78.3 million. -Original

In the past seven days, about $800 million worth of 8915 Bitcoin has net flowed out of major centralized exchanges (CEX). Among them, Binance, Gemini, and Bybit have become the "main forces" in withdrawals. This phenomenon occurs against the backdrop of Bitcoin's price retracing from a high point and complex market sentiment, raising widespread attention: Are investors fleeing in panic, or quietly hoarding for the next rise?

1. Capital Flow Picture: Continuous Outflow and Short-term Fluctuations

The recent trend of Bitcoin flowing out of exchanges is not coincidental.

● AiCoin data shows that this "negative net flow" pattern has been present since March 2025, indicating that the amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges consistently exceeds the amount deposited. In the earlier 30-day period, the net outflow even reached approximately 170,000 coins.

On December 5, 2025, the China Internet Finance Association and six other major financial industry associations jointly issued a rare risk warning (on preventing risks related to illegal activities involving virtual currencies and others). This document, with unprecedentedly clear wording and a comprehensive ban, has drawn a non-crossable red line for all business activities involving virtual currencies and emerging 'real-world asset tokens' within the country.

This is not an isolated industry warning. Just a week ago, the People's Bank of China led a meeting with 13 departments participating in the 'Coordination Mechanism Meeting for Combating Speculation in Virtual Currency Trading,' which for the first time officially clarified that 'stablecoins are a form of virtual currency.'

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