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Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
In our previous report, we identified the key drivers for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market in the coming months: the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut and dovish pivot in December, alongside the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) potential rate hike on December 19. These two central banks played a central role in last week’s market movements. We also highlighted the $93,000 resistance level as a significant barrier, limiting BTC’s upward momentum amid persistent selling pressure above this threshold.On the central bank front, the Federal Reserve’s dovish shift, fueled by speculation around President Trump’s potential Fed Chair nominee in early 2026, signals a move toward looser monetary policy. Kevin Hassett, a former White House economic advisor and Trump loyalist, is emerging as a frontrunner. Markets expect Hassett to adopt a dovish stance, possibly delivering two rate cuts to bring the federal funds rate down to 3-3.25% by year-end, though this remains speculative. Softening labor market data, such as the recent ADP report showing a loss of 32,000 jobs in November, along with slowing consumer demand, further support the Fed’s inclination toward easing.In contrast, the Bank of Japan is moving closer to a rate hike, driven by persistent inflation, including Tokyo’s core CPI rising 2.8% year-over-year in November. This move could attract capital back to Japan, tightening global liquidity. Higher rates would also increase carry trade costs, potentially triggering another round of unwind. Our desk views the market impact as likely more muted than January 2025’s hike to 0.50%, given that expectations have been building for months. Nevertheless, the ongoing liquidity squeeze remains a headwind for risk assets, especially liquidity-sensitive ones like BTC and crypto assets.From a macroeconomic perspective, we expect heightened volatility during the holiday season, amplified by the Fed’s rate decision on December 10 and the BOJ’s on December 19. Analysts currently price in an 80-90% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut, likely accompanied by a hawkish statement from Chair Powell to temper expectations. For the BOJ, there is a 76-80% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, reflected in the Japan 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.94%, its highest level since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.Our analysis confirms that the $93,000 resistance level for BTC remains firm, constraining further gains as selling pressure intensifies above it. A decisive break above $93,000, followed by a successful retest as support, would shift our outlook to bullish, potentially opening the path toward $98,000–$100,000.That said, with thinning liquidity over the holidays and major central bank decisions approaching, we anticipate volatile price action amid reduced trading volumes. This environment could lead to rapid momentum shifts. Looking ahead, the positive global liquidity outlook for 2026 underpins our bullish stance, with expectations for a meaningful BTC and crypto rally in the first quarter.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.Last week, the US market experienced a strong capital inflow through ETFs following the largest outflow week. The Bitcoin ETF sector saw $123 million in inflows over the last four trading days, as the market being closed last Thursday for Thanksgiving.BTC price reached the $93,000 level on Friday, driven by strong ETF demand, but the gains were erased on Monday, December 1, amid rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Despite the bearish sentiment, BTC ETFs still recorded an $8.48 million inflow on Monday, indicating that investors view this price as a buying opportunity. BTC surged on Tuesday, supported by a dovish outlook on the Federal Reserve’s stance in 2026, alongside a $58.50 million capital inflow into BTC ETFs.Based on last week’s data, our desk believes US ETF investors are closely following BTC price movements and are actively buying on dips.

Macro at a glance
Weekly Macro Highlights (November 27-December 3, 2025)Friday, November 28, 2025Tokyo Core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, steady from October and slightly above the 2.7% consensus. This persistent inflation above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target strengthens expectations for a potential rate hike soon, signaling a hawkish shift that could tighten global liquidity. Higher Japanese rates may also boost the yen and pressure carry trades, creating headwinds for risk assets.Monday, December 2, 2025The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for November came in at 52.2, beating the expected 51.9 and marking the fourth straight month of expansion. In contrast, the ISM US Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, below the forecasted 49.0, indicating a slight acceleration in contraction.This divergence highlights mixed signals in US manufacturing: pockets of resilience per S&P Global, but broader weakness driven by soft new orders and employment per ISM. High interest rates and slowing global demand continue to challenge the sector, potentially weighing on overall economic growth.Tuesday, December 3, 2025Eurozone headline CPI inflation accelerated to 2.2% year-over-year in November, up from 2.1% in October and slightly above expectations. Core CPI remained steady at 2.4%.The unemployment rate held at 6.4% in October, unchanged from September but above forecasts and last year’s level.Rising services prices keep inflation near the ECB’s 2% target, signaling persistent pressures that may limit aggressive rate cuts. Meanwhile, the stable yet elevated unemployment rate points to a softening labor market, raising concerns about economic stagnation and supporting the case for further ECB easing to stimulate demand.Wednesday, December 4, 2025US ADP Nonfarm Employment unexpectedly declined by 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, contrasting with forecasts for a 5,000 gain. October’s figure was revised up to +47,000.This is the third job loss in four months and the largest drop since early pandemic disruptions, reflecting labor market weakness amid high borrowing costs and economic uncertainty. The weak report fueled market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in December, boosting stocks and risk assets as investors anticipate looser policy to counter slowing employment.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!

You can also reach out to us on Telegram (@Binance_OTC_Desk) to connect directly with our experienced traders for your OTC trading needs. We look forward to assisting you and providing exceptional service for all your OTC transactions.

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Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
Our previous report nailed the exact bottom. We explicitly warned that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market were experiencing extreme liquidation pressure from restrictive global liquidity, with Bitcoin trading in deeply oversold territory (14-day RSI below 30). We told subscribers a violent rebound was imminent, and that’s precisely what unfolded. Within hours of publication, Bitcoin wicked down to $81,000 during early European trading hours, marking the final capitulation low before reversing sharply higher. The catalyst was clear: dovish signals from Federal Reserve governors John Williams and Mary Daly reignited risk appetite and propelled Bitcoin back above $91,000 in a matter of days.Liquidity remains the dominant force moving all risk assets, and the shift we’ve been anticipating is now fully underway. Just a week ago, the market was pricing only a ~40% chance of a December rate cut, triggering a brutal sell-off across equities, commodities, and crypto alike. The dovish pivot from Williams and Daly flipped that narrative overnight: December cut odds surged past 84%, and every major risk asset staged an immediate and powerful relief rally.Several confirmed liquidity tailwinds are now locked in for the coming months. Starting December 1, the Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative tightening by fully reinvesting all maturing Treasury securities; the $25 billion monthly runoff that has drained markets for over three years is over. On November 25, U.S. regulators finalized changes to the enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio, unlocking approximately $13 billion in Tier-1 capital at global systemically important bank (GSIB) holding companies and a massive $219 billion at their depository subsidiaries. Banks can adopt the new rules as early as January 1, 2026, with full implementation by April 1. This change directly expands lending and prime-brokerage capacity for risk assets.The December 9–10 FOMC meeting is widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point cut. Even if Chair Powell strikes a hawkish tone in the press conference, the cut itself keeps the liquidity spigot open and reinforces the Fed put, a net bullish for Bitcoin and crypto. The only notable counter-risk comes from the Bank of Japan’s December 18–19 meeting, where markets assign roughly a 53% probability of a 25 basis point hike amid 3%+ inflation and persistent yen weakness. A BoJ hike could create temporary global headwinds via yen strength, but it pales in comparison to the Fed’s easing cycle and is unlikely to derail the broader uptrend.The market has already priced the December cut, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing near 4.00%. With U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving and a quiet data calendar ahead, the next meaningful catalyst doesn’t arrive until Monday, December 1.From a Bitcoin technical perspective, we are approaching a decisive resistance zone. The $93,000 level represents the immediate hurdle, followed by thicker supply at $95,000 and $98,000. A clean break above $100,000 would open the path to fresh all-time highs. On-chain metrics and order-book depth suggest the market will consolidate within a wide $80,000–$100,000 range for the next one to two months as it digests the recent drawdown and builds energy for the next leg higher. Our conviction remains strongly bullish: new all-time highs into Q1 2026 are our base case, driven by relentless institutional inflows, spot ETF demand, and the most favorable macro liquidity backdrop in years.On the altcoin side, capital is rotating aggressively into proven narratives. The Solana ecosystem continues to lead, with on-chain activity surging: daily transactions, TVL, and DEX volume are all trending decisively higher, while Solana ETFs attract consistent inflows. Meanwhile, the synthetic stablecoin yield theme remains one of the strongest pockets of demand, as our desk saw strong flows on ENA in the last several days.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.Last week delivered the heaviest ETF outflows on record, but the capitulation low was struck around $81,000 on Friday. That was the moment the smart money stepped in hard. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $238 million net inflow that same day as the price ripped higher, proof that institutional and retail investors alike recognized the generational buying opportunity and loaded up aggressively.This holiday-shortened week showed net-zero ETF flows, which is exactly what we expect in thin, post-Thanksgiving trading. Traditional finance players are still sitting on their hands, waiting for the all-clear on liquidity, and that caution is about to be rewarded. While the broader risk complex posted only modest gains (despite Google’s monster rally to fresh all-time highs), the lack of follow-through selling is telling. The rebound didn’t fade because of weakness; it paused because volume evaporated over the holiday.

Macro at a glance
Weekly Macro Highlights (November 20–26, 2025)Thursday, November 20  U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 declined to 220,000. Continuing claims (week ending November 8) rose to a seasonally adjusted 1.974 million. The low level of initial claims continues to signal a resilient labor market; however, the uptick in continuing claims and recent high-profile corporate layoff announcements suggest that the more lagging indicators may not yet fully reflect emerging softness.  The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.Friday, November 21  Japan’s national core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 3.0% y/y in October, in line with consensus. The headline CPI increased 0.5% m/m, accelerating from 0.2% in September. Sustained above-target inflation continues to increase the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December, which could tighten global liquidity conditions and weigh on liquidity-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.  U.K. retail sales volumes grew just 0.2% y/y in October, well below the expected 1.5%. Core retail sales (excluding auto fuel) rose only 1.2% y/y against a forecast of 2.5%, underscoring weakening consumer momentum.   New York Fed President John Williams described current policy as “modestly restrictive” and indicated openness to a near-term rate cut, citing rising employment risks alongside cooling inflation. Markets responded strongly, lifting the implied probability of a December Fed rate cut from approximately 40% to over 70%.Tuesday, November 25U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% m/m in September, in line with expectations.   Advance U.S. retail sales for October increased only 0.2% m/m, missing the consensus forecast of 0.4%. Core retail sales (excluding autos) rose 0.3% m/m, decelerating from 0.6% in August and highlighting a clear slowdown in consumer spending.  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in November, significantly below the expected 93.5 and October’s 95.5. The sharp decline signals reduced willingness to spend and supports the view that demand-driven inflationary pressures are likely to ease further.  San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed heightened concern about labor-market deterioration and voiced support for a December rate cut. Following her remarks, market-implied odds of a December easing rose above 80%.Wednesday, November 26U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell further to 216,000, the lowest level since mid-April.  The Chicago PMI plunged to 36.3 in November from 43.8 in October, remaining deeply in contraction territory and indicating continued weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!

You can also reach out to us on Telegram (@Binance_OTC_Desk) to connect directly with our experienced traders for your OTC trading needs. We look forward to assisting you and providing exceptional service for all your OTC transactions.

Access Binance OTC desk on the VIP Portal
Algo Orders
Spot Block Trading
Options RFQ

Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
In our previous report, we highlighted key observations from the options market and expressed optimism for potential support at the $98,000 level for Bitcoin ($BTC). This level provided temporary support around November 4, driving a rebound to approximately $107,000. However, market dynamics took a divergent path, with BTC swiftly breaching the $98,000 threshold and accelerating downward momentum. The selloff occurred despite initial optimism surrounding the U.S. government's reopening on November 13 following a 43-day shutdown—the longest on record. As of today, BTC is trading near $86,700, reflecting a broader pullback from its November highs above $110,000.Global liquidity conditions remain under pressure, influenced by shifts in sovereign bond yields. The Japanese 10-year Treasury yield eased to approximately 1.78% as of November 21, following a peak near 1.82% earlier in the week. This movement has drawn capital inflows back to Japan, contributing to tighter liquidity worldwide. In the U.S., the delayed September labor market data, which was originally slated for October but postponed due to the government shutdown, was released on November 20, revealing 119,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. While interpretations vary, the report underscores a resilient labor market, reducing the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is hovering between 4.09% and 4.13%, signaling investor caution amid persistent inflation concerns.Liquidity dynamics have dominated market movements this week. Despite NVIDIA's robust third-quarter earnings reported on November 19—featuring $57.0 billion in revenue (up 22% sequentially) and $1.30 adjusted earnings per share, the broader market erased initial gains and resumed its downward trajectory during U.S. trading sessions. Our analysis indicates that selling pressure intensified during U.S. hours, exacerbated by significant capital outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. November has seen net outflows exceeding $3 billion for BTC ETFs alone, including a record $523 million single-day redemption from BlackRock's IBIT on November 18, dragging the cryptocurrency sector lower. As noted in our prior analysis, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq Composite remains elevated, reaching approximately 0.80 on a 30-day basis, the highest since 2022. This linkage heightens BTC's vulnerability to downside risks in a liquidity-constrained environment. Under current conditions, crypto assets exhibit heightened sensitivity to liquidity shifts, as investors prioritize de-risking by divesting from high-volatility assets amid changing risk appetites.Technical analysis suggests that the next strong support for BTC is around the $74,000 level over the coming months, a level that provided resilience during the U.S.-China tariff escalations in April 2025. In the near term, we maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on a potential BTC rebound over the next few weeks, contingent on positive ripple effects from the U.S. government reopening, such as stabilized economic data releases and reduced policy uncertainty. Investors should monitor upcoming indicators, including the delayed November jobs report on December 16, for further insights into Fed trajectory and liquidity trends.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.As outlined in our "Overall Market" section, tightening liquidity conditions were a pivotal factor in this week's broad sell-off across cryptocurrency markets. Investors accelerated capital withdrawals from crypto-related assets, resulting in net outflows about $2 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the five-day streak ending November 19. This trend reversed modestly on November 19 with $75.47 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock and Grayscale.Given Bitcoin's inherent sensitivity to liquidity fluctuations as a high-risk investment asset, its performance this week lagged significantly behind other asset classes. Initial optimism around global liquidity has been tempered by movements in the Japanese 10-year Treasury yield, which hovered around 1.78%–1.82% as of November 21 after a brief uptick earlier in the week. Coupled with a sharp decline in the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December, this has heightened uncertainty. The minutes from the FOMC October 28–29 meeting, released on November 19, revealed deep divisions among officials regarding the pace of rate adjustments, with debates centering on balancing labor market risks against persistent inflation pressures. These factors suggest a broader market shift toward risk-off sentiment, even as NVIDIA delivered exceptional third-quarter earnings on November 19..

Macro at a glance
Thursday, Nov 13,Australia's employment increased by 42,200 jobs in October, exceeding the market forecast of 20,000. The unemployment rate declined from 4.5% to 4.3%. This robust labor market performance signals resilient domestic demand amid global uncertainties, reducing the urgency for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates. It strengthens the case for maintaining the current policy rate through 2025, potentially supporting AUD appreciation and bolstering consumer confidence, though persistent wage pressures could fuel inflationary risks.Friday, Nov 14,French CPI consumer prices rose 0.1% month-over-month in October, aligning with preliminary estimates after a 1.0% decline in September. Year-over-year inflation eased to 1.0%.Eurozone GDP preliminary estimates for Q3 2025 confirmed a 0.2% quarter-over-quarter growth, with year-over-year growth revised upward to 1.4% from the initial 1.3% flash estimate.Monday Nov 17,Japan projects to have a 1.8% annual GDP contraction, better than the previous forecast of a 2.5% contraction in Q3. The GDP decrease is primarily driven by U.S. tariffs impacting exports and sluggish global demand.Tuesday, Nov 18,U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending October 18, 2025 was reported at 232,000, marking the first labor market data release following the U.S. federal government shutdown. This figure remains above recent averages, reflecting lingering disruptions. The Federal Reserve's October 29 rate cut to 4.00% has sparked debate on its necessity, contributing to reduced market expectations for a December cut amid mixed economic signals.Wednesday, Nov 19,UK saw a 0.4% monthly increase in CPI reading in October, translating to a 3.6% annual growth, higher than the forecasted 3.5%. This elevated reading supports the Bank of England's decision to hold its policy rate at 4.00% in early November, maintaining a restrictive stance.FOMC meeting minutes highlighted divisions among Fed officials on the timing and necessity of further rate cuts, introducing greater uncertainty into future policy decisions.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!

You can also reach out to us on Telegram (@Binance_OTC_Desk) to connect directly with our experienced traders for your OTC trading needs. We look forward to assisting you and providing exceptional service for all your OTC transactions.

Access Binance OTC desk on the VIP Portal
Algo Orders
Spot Block Trading
Options RFQ



Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
In our previous weekly update, we emphasized the importance of Bitcoin swiftly reclaiming the $104,000 mark and stabilizing within its upward channel to prevent further declines. Unfortunately, that didn't materialize. After briefly surging to around $107,000, Bitcoin encountered intense selling pressure, breaking back below $104,000 with considerable downside force. Today, the $98,000 level emerges as the key support zone, especially following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials that have amplified market caution. These developments come against a backdrop of weakening labor data, yet the Fed's focus remains squarely on combating persistent inflation, underscoring the delicate balance policymakers are striking in this environment.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, a prominent voice in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), delivered a notably hawkish message this week, highlighting inflation as the more pressing risk compared to labor market softness. This stance has directly contributed to a sharp drop in the probability of a December rate cut, now hovering just below 50% according to futures markets. Such rhetoric has added downward pressure on risk-sensitive assets across the board. For instance, the S&P 500 has slipped below the 6,750 threshold, reflecting broader equity weakness, while U.S. tech stocks have undergone a meaningful correction. AI-linked names, which had been darlings of the market, have retraced between 7% and 10% from their recent highs, a pullback that feels measured but signals growing investor selectivity amid elevated valuations.On the flip side, traditional safe-haven assets have demonstrated resilience. Gold has reclaimed the $4,200 level as of yesterday, embodying its role as a hedge during uncertain times. Silver has followed suit, surging above $53 and sitting tantalizingly close to its all-time high of $54.45 set just a month ago. This strength in precious metals contrasts sharply with the bearish tilt in overall risk sentiment, which persists despite the positive news of the U.S. government's reopening after a 43-day shutdown. Market liquidity continues to feel constrained, even following the Federal Reserve's substantial $29.4 billion infusion into the banking system last Friday—an operation that marked the largest repo activity since 2020. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield lingers around 4.10%, a level that suggests bond markets are pushing back against the Fed's recent rate cut, implying expectations for sustained or even higher rates to tame inflation.Turning to the options market, our team's observations indicate a subtle shift in trader positioning. For Bitcoin, sentiment appears less overtly bearish than it was two weeks ago, with significant volumes of put options being sold around the $98,000 strike—potentially signaling that some investors see value at these levels or are unwinding hedges. Ethereum, however, tells a different story, with a clear skew toward buying put options as a form of downside insurance, reflecting heightened caution amid its own price pressures. These dynamics highlight the nuanced ways traders are navigating the current landscape, balancing optimism with prudence.Drawing from our desk's in-depth analysis, there's reason for measured confidence in the broader equity markets. Historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to close higher within a one-month window following the resolution of government shutdowns, with positive returns in about 60% of cases over the past few decades. This pattern, combined with robust underlying fundamentals in global risk assets, supports a constructive view moving forward. That said, we can't ignore the evolving relationship between cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and traditional benchmarks such as the Nasdaq. In recent months, crypto has mirrored Nasdaq's downward moves closely but has notably decoupled during upward swings—a bearish asymmetry that serves as a warning sign. We interpret this as evidence of shifting investor priorities, with capital increasingly flowing toward AI-driven innovations rather than crypto and Web3 themes. Additionally, gold's impressive run is drawing attention away from Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, exacerbating outflows from the crypto sector and contributing to its price depreciation.This week’s asset performances show divergent paths: risk assets under strain while commodities hold firm. Looking ahead, while short-term volatility may persist, particularly if rate-cut odds remain suppressed, the end of the shutdown could catalyze a rebound in equities, potentially spilling over to crypto if correlations realign. Investors should monitor Fed communications closely, as any softening in hawkish tones could reignite upside momentum. In the meantime, diversification into safe havens like gold remains a prudent strategy amid these crosswinds.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.Following the substantial capital exodus detailed in our previous report—where U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.22 billion last week—our analysis indicates that this trend has persisted, albeit at a somewhat moderated pace. Through November 13, these ETFs have recorded a net outflow of approximately $620 million this week, driven by a mix of institutional repositioning and retail caution. This ongoing withdrawal underscores a broader market reluctance to embrace Bitcoin as a core investment amid the current economic landscape, where uncertainty looms large.The Federal Reserve's decision to implement a 25-basis-point rate cut at the end of October, lowering the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, was intended to bolster economic activity in the face of softening labor data. However, this move has been accompanied by a deliberate slowing in the pace of Treasury securities reduction on the Fed's balance sheet—a process that began tapering earlier in the year and is set to conclude by December 1. Despite these efforts, risk sentiment remains subdued, with hawkish commentary from key Fed officials amplifying concerns over persistent inflation. Figures like Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari have emphasized that inflation remains "too high," pushing back against expectations for further easing and reducing the probability of a December rate cut to around 50%, per futures market data. This shift has not only tempered enthusiasm for rate-sensitive assets but has also triggered widespread profit-taking across high-growth sectors, including artificial intelligence. A notable example is SoftBank's recent sale of its entire stake in Nvidia—comprising 32.1 million shares—for $5.83 billion in October, a move that has rippled through the market and contributed to a 2% drop in Nvidia shares upon disclosure.These capital outflows are exerting additional downward pressure on Bitcoin's price, which has already tested key support levels this week. More critically, they signal to the broader market that traditional investors are not stepping in to buy the dip, even as Bitcoin trades at what some might view as discounted valuations. This hesitation reflects a reallocation of capital toward more established themes, such as AI infrastructure—despite the sector's own corrections—or traditional safe havens, as evidenced by gold's resilience above $4,200. In our view, this dynamic highlights Bitcoin's vulnerability in a hawkish policy environment, where the allure of "digital gold" dims against competing narratives and tighter liquidity conditions.



Macro at a glance
Thursday, November 6The Bank of England maintained its key interest rate at 4.00%, in line with market expectations. In a closely contested decision by the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, five members voted to hold the bank rate steady, while four supported a 25 basis point reduction. Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that future rate cuts are on the horizon, prompting economists to anticipate a potential reduction before Christmas rather than early 2026.Friday, November 7Canada's October employment data revealed a robust addition of 66,600 jobs, far exceeding market forecasts and defying expectations of a modest decline. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% from 7.1% in September. The Bank of Canada has implemented 4 rate cuts in 2025 so far, with its interest rate at 2.25% after its October meeting.Sunday, November 9China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year-over-year in October, marking a rebound from September's 0.3% decline. The producer price index (PPI) contracted by 2.1%, an improvement over the anticipated 2.3% drop.Tuesday, November 11The UK unemployment rate climbed to 5.0% in September, up from 4.8% in August. This deterioration in labor market conditions, combined with sluggish economic growth, is likely to intensify pressure on the Bank of England to implement a rate cut by year-end.Wednesday, November 12Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish commentary on monetary policy. New York Fed President John Williams discussed the Fed's balance sheet strategy and the need for effective interest rate control amid recent cuts. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed opposition to a December rate cut, citing persistent inflation risks despite labor market softening. These statements contributed to a negative market sentiment, leading to selloffs in risk assets.Later that day, the U.S. government shutdown concluded when President Trump signed a funding bill extending operations through January 30, 2026, marking the end of the longest shutdown in history at 43 days. While the resolution initially spurred a brief market rally, gains were erased amid diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.




Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!

You can also reach out to us on Telegram (@Binance_OTC_Desk) to connect directly with our experienced traders for your OTC trading needs. We look forward to assisting you and providing exceptional service for all your OTC transactions.

Access Binance OTC desk on the VIP Portal
Algo Orders
Spot Block Trading
Options RFQ


Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
Recent changes in the markets have shown how Bitcoin's price movements are tied to bigger economic forces and feelings specific to cryptocurrencies. As we noted in our earlier report, we expected a period of steady trading in a wide range after Bitcoin tested the $104,000 level twice. This played out with a small increase over the weekend, followed by stronger selling that pushed prices below that important mark. This drop wasn't alone; it happened during a broad wave of selling across global investments, including U.S. stocks, bonds, gold, and other digital assets. At the heart of this is a reduced supply of money in the markets, which not only increases short-term price swings but also has bigger effects on how people invest over time. If this shortage continues, it might keep money away from high-risk options like cryptocurrencies, making recoveries take longer and pushing more toward safe choices.The long U.S. government shutdown, lasting 37 days as of November 6, 2025, longest in US history. The shutdown has played a direct role in this cash squeeze. It has built up the Treasury General Account to nearly $1 trillion by holding back funds from bond sales, pulling money out of the economy. This high level, the biggest in three years, shows how government standoffs can spread through finance, limiting what the Treasury can do and making it harder for private businesses to borrow. Adding to this, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) climbed from around 4% after the Federal Reserve's rate cut on October 29, 2025, to 4.22% by October 31, before settling to 4.00% by November 4. This rise points to serious short-term funding problems. Banks and companies, dealing with higher costs for overnight loans, have to turn to the Federal Reserve for help. This setup suggests credit could get even tighter overall, potentially making economic slowdowns worse if the shutdown goes on, impacting areas from company projects to everyday spending by people.This lack of cash has led to widespread selling of assets, as groups sell holdings to build up U.S. dollars. This has lifted the Dollar Index past 100, a point last hit during similar pressures. The stronger dollar boosts its role as a safe spot but also recalls the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank, where cash shortages sparked a banking issue. While the current setup doesn't have the same high-risk setups in banks, the similarities highlight weak spots in the system: continued limits could lead to must-sell situations, making market drops bigger and possibly creating a loop of falling values and more wariness from both everyday investors and big players.Even so, our trading team holds that today's issues are different from the sharp dangers of 2023, without clear signs of bank troubles. But the tight setting remains, driving sales of risky assets as the need for cash grows. Positive views on a soon-to-come government reopening have lessened some fears about global cash conditions getting even worse, supporting a small Bitcoin comeback from its low of about $96,800 on November 4 to levels close to $104,000. This bounce-back underlines how sensitive markets are to policy fixes, suggesting a fast return to normal government work could kick off short-term gains, but it also signals risks from hold-ups, which could make price fixes deeper and challenge lower support points.Moving forward, we expect to see a longer period of trading in a broad range with prices set to hold above $104,000. A quick government startup again could spark fast rises in risky assets, providing spots to take positive positions. Still, we see short-term tops staying under the earlier high of about $116,000, pointing to a trend of lower peaks that might show slowing drive. If the market remains bearish sentiment without catalysts on bullish macro developments, the price will test the $98k support level in the coming days. If the price tests the $98k level and cannot quickly reclaim the $104k level, the bearish case will be confirmed, and our desk believes the market will enter a bearish phase in months.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.In recent trading sessions, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded significant net outflows totaling approximately $1.9 billion over the past five days, aligning with a broader global market selloff and reflecting heightened investor caution. This exodus underscores a deliberate shift in risk appetite, as restrictive liquidity conditions—stemming from factors like the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and elevated borrowing costs—have fueled strong demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. The surge in the Dollar Index above 100 has coincided with widespread price declines across risk assets, including U.S. equities, Treasury bonds, commodities, and other cryptocurrencies, indicating pockets of panic selling in various sectors.Bitcoin, inherently sensitive to market liquidity fluctuations, has seen its volatility amplified by ETF mechanisms in these imbalanced conditions. These products, designed to provide institutional exposure, can exacerbate price swings during outflows, as evidenced by the recent daily breakdowns: for instance, November 4 alone saw $566.4 million in net exits, primarily from major funds like Fidelity's FBTC and ARK/21Shares' ARKB. Extending to a sixth day on November 5 with an additional $137 million outflow, this streak has pushed cumulative withdrawals to levels that pressure Bitcoin's price, which briefly dipped below $100,000 before stabilizing around $103,000.This pattern of capital flight implies broader implications for the cryptocurrency ecosystem and financial markets at large. Investors' strong inclination to offload Bitcoin holdings in favor of U.S. dollars highlights a flight-to-quality dynamic, where liquidity shortages compel derisking across portfolios. In a restrictive environment, such as the current one marked by a Treasury General Account buildup near $1 trillion and SOFR rates spiking post the Federal Reserve's October 29 rate cut, institutions face higher funding costs, prompting asset liquidations that cascade through interconnected markets. This not only amplifies short-term volatility but also raises concerns about prolonged recovery timelines for risk assets, potentially deterring fresh capital inflows into cryptocurrencies and favoring traditional safe havens.Furthermore, the observed panic selloffs across asset classes—evident in tech-heavy equity declines, rising bond yields (indicating falling prices), and commodity dips amid dollar strength—suggest systemic stresses that could foreshadow slower economic momentum if unresolved. Bitcoin's particular responsiveness stems from its high-beta nature and leverage in derivatives markets, where ETF outflows can trigger forced unwinds, as seen in recent open interest reductions. While not mirroring the severity of past events like the 2023 banking liquidity crunch, these conditions warrant vigilant monitoring, as persistent tightness might lead to deeper corrections, testing Bitcoin supports at $100,000 or lower.On a positive note, early signs of stabilization, such as Bitcoin's rebound on November 6 and mixed ETF flows (with some altcoin ETFs like Solana-based products seeing inflows), indicate potential resilience. Should liquidity pressures ease—perhaps through a government shutdown resolution or further Fed accommodations—reversals in ETF flows could catalyze upward impulses, offering opportunities for tactical re-entry. Nonetheless, the current juncture emphasizes the value of diversified strategies, robust risk management, and close tracking of macroeconomic indicators to navigate these volatile waters effectively.



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Overall Market

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On October 10, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports after U.S. markets closed, triggering a massive liquidation event in the cryptocurrency market with a record $19 billion in notional value wiped out. Sentiment turned sharply bearish amid the ensuing crash. Although prices rebounded quickly, Bitcoin ($BTC) retested its lower bound near $103,500 and found support as strong buying interest emerged.So far, BTC has fluctuated within a broad range of approximately $103,500 to $116,000. U.S.-China trade tensions have since eased with positive developments from both sides. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that trade negotiations between the two nations are progressing well, with some agreements already reached. President Trump met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025. Markets remain optimistic about this summit, anticipating it could lead to further de-escalation in the trade war between the world's two largest economies by GDP.Gold prices declined from an all-time high of $4,379 as trade tensions subsided, shifting market euphoria away from the metal after a roughly 10% drop. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% before rebounding above that level, reflecting investors' ongoing asset reallocation to hedge against market uncertainty.The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, which was fully anticipated following last week's cooling CPI data. This suggests that tariff-related inflationary pressures may represent a one-time shock rather than lasting harm. Additionally, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown since October 1, 2025, has further weakened the labor market. The Fed must balance the two factors, inflation and employment, to fulfill its dual mandate when setting rates in December.In another dovish move, the Fed is concluding the reduction of its $6.6 trillion balance sheet amid signs of tightening money market liquidity and declining bank reserves. This will ease liquidity constraints as the central bank ceases to withdraw funds from the system, starting December 1.Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish message indicating that a December rate cut is not predetermined, market expectations still lean toward another 25 basis point reduction, with roughly a two-thirds probability. However, renewed supply chain disruptions or trade war escalation could drive higher inflation, potentially compelling the Fed to pause cuts in December.Regarding the regional bank debt default risks that sparked market panic and caused BTC to form a needle wick retest near $103,500 on October 17, 2025, our desk views the associated threats as contained. Post-Dodd-Frank Act reforms have strengthened debt supervision and regulation compared to pre-2008 levels, making potential risks more manageable for the Fed.Our desk anticipates the market will continue trading within this broad range, as shown in the chart, and consolidate for some time before establishing a clear direction. A decisive break of the range boundaries without a reclaim back to the range within 24 hours would confirm the next market phase.
Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.As shown in the table above, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net capital outflow of $8 million over the past five trading sessions. The substantial $470 million capital outflow last night following the FOMC meeting suggests that investors are repositioning their portfolios with respect to BTC exposure.After positive developments from the trade negotiation teams of both the US and China, the market turned optimistic, and our desk observed consistent capital inflows into BTC spot ETFs, a clear vote of confidence from investors with their capital. However, the hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell weighed on the market, with US stocks closing modestly lower and the BTC price dipping below $110,000.Based on the data we monitor, our desk believes the market is in a consolidation phase and searching for direction. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts may persist for some time, awaiting greater clarity on improvements in market liquidity and developments in key macro events before a clear trend emerges.



Why trade OTC?  
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Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

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Crypto Markets Face Historic Volatility Amid U.S.-China Trade Tensions

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Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
Over the weekend of October 10-13, 2025, global financial markets, with cryptocurrencies at the forefront, experienced unprecedented volatility driven by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The catalyst was President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, set to take effect on November 1, 2025. This announcement triggered a historic market crash on Friday evening, erasing billions of dollars in market value and forcing a wave of unprecedented liquidations across the crypto space.The crypto market saw massive liquidations, with 24-hour liquidations reaching an extraordinary $19.1 billion across approximately 1.6 million traders. This figure dwarfs previous liquidation events, including the $1.2 billion liquidations during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020 and the $1.6 billion liquidations following the FTX collapse in November 2022. The scale of this sell-off underscores the heightened risk and leverage present in the market leading up to this event.The market collapse was further exacerbated by growing concerns over potential supply chain disruptions affecting critical sectors such as technology, semiconductors, and blockchain infrastructure. Additionally, a concurrent U.S. government shutdown delayed the release of key economic data, adding to market uncertainty and panic. While the turmoil persisted into Saturday, the market showed signs of stabilization on Sunday following public reassurances from President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, who sought to de-escalate tensions through more measured rhetoric.By Monday, Bitcoin ($BTC) had rebounded from its lows and was trading around $115,000. Ethereum ($ETH) and Solana ($SOL) also recovered, trading at approximately $4,170 and $198, respectively. Binance Coin ($BNB) emerged as one of the strongest performers, quickly recovering from the sharp decline and trading near its all-time high of $1,349.99, which was recorded on October 7.The magnitude of the liquidation event indicates that the crypto market was significantly overleveraged, fueled by bullish sentiment that had built up throughout September. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the end of October further encouraged traders to increase leverage. The liquidation on Friday night primarily wiped out long positions, while Sunday’s market rebound triggered a short squeeze, forcing short positions to cover. Our trading desk observed a marked decrease in open interest in the futures market, accompanied by a more stabilized market price as Asian markets opened on Monday.As the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve, the correlation between traditional financial markets and digital assets has strengthened considerably. This growing interconnection means that macroeconomic headlines and geopolitical developments increasingly influence crypto market dynamics. From a market cycle perspective, Bitcoin’s price volatility has moderated on both the upside and downside, signaling its maturation as an asset class and reflecting broader adoption by mainstream investors. In contrast, smaller altcoins remain highly vulnerable to market swings. During this liquidation event, many altcoins ranked within the top 100 by market capitalization experienced drawdowns ranging from 50% to 80%. This highlights that, aside from the most liquid and established coins such as BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB, many digital assets lack sufficient market depth and support during periods of stress.Looking ahead, as the U.S.-China trade conflict persists, our desk anticipates that headline-driven volatility will continue to significantly impact global markets, particularly within the digital asset space. We strongly advise traders to exercise prudent risk management and carefully monitor leverage levels. For large-size trades, we recommend engaging with our OTC desk to minimize market slippage and ensure smoother execution.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.As shown in the table above, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net capital inflow of $2.72 billion last week, despite a modest single-day outflow of $4.5 million on Friday following the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. It is important to note that the massive liquidations that occurred over the weekend did not impact ETF investors, as the traditional markets were closed during that period, effectively excluding them from the extreme volatility.Following President Trump’s recent softening of rhetoric regarding U.S.-China trade tariffs, Bitcoin’s price rebounded from Saturday’s lows and traded around last Friday’s closing level at $116,000. The limited trading hours of traditional markets provided ETF investors with a degree of protection from the sharp price swings seen in the crypto spot and futures markets. Additionally, the high level of regulatory oversight governing ETFs offers further safeguards, helping investors avoid the risks associated with sudden market fluctuations.

Why trade OTC?  
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Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

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Overall Market

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Last week, we discussed the potential trajectory of Bitcoin within the bull flag pattern highlighted in the chart, emphasizing the critical support level near $108,000, which held firm at the end of August 2025. The optimistic sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut helped BTC rebound strongly from this level, sparking a four-day rally since last Sunday. This robust momentum enabled Bitcoin to break above the downward channel, signaling that the price is poised for the next leg higher.The US government shutdown, which began on October 1 after Senators failed to pass the funding bill, presents significant economic risks. The shutdown is expected to cost between $7 billion and $15 billion in GDP per week due to furloughs affecting over 800,000 federal workers, delayed government spending, and suspended federal services. This disruption is likely to introduce noise into inflation data and increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to pursue rate cuts. If the shutdown extends for several weeks, as was the case in 2018-2019 under President Trump’s watch, it could ease short-term inflationary pressures and weaken the US labor market, providing further incentive for the Fed to lower interest rates in upcoming meetings.During the 2018-2019 shutdown, the S&P 500 rallied nearly 10%, driven by bullish sentiment on falling interest rates and trade optimism. However, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market experienced a mild decline, primarily due to the prevailing crypto winter rather than direct effects from the shutdown.Our desk anticipates a different market dynamic this time, supported by several key factors. First, increased trading volumes in BTC and ETH spot ETFs have strengthened the correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market compared to 2018-2019. Second, Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies have posted substantial demand on crypto assets, providing sustained upward momentum. Third, we are currently in a Bitcoin bull market, underpinned by optimism around easing monetary policy.Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated exceptional performance in October, with an average monthly return of 14.4% since 2013. In the context of an easing monetary cycle, this bullish sentiment is expected to propel the crypto market higher. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for the end of October and a near 99% probability of a rate cut, combined with the macroeconomic factors discussed, our desk anticipates amplified market volatility. We recommend that investors remain vigilant and employ strategic risk management to capitalize on potential upside while mitigating downside risks.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.Market data indicates capital outflows from BTC spot ETFs during the final two trading sessions of last week, likely reflecting the capital rotation from crypto assets to the US stock market, as highlighted in our previous report. However, amid the backdrop of a potential US government shutdown, BTC's price surged on Sunday, coinciding with three consecutive days of robust inflows totaling over $1.6 billion. This substantial influx occurred alongside gold prices reaching all-time highs, underscoring investors' strategic allocation to BTC as a means to diversify against shutdown-related market risks.As outlined in the preceding section, our desk maintains an optimistic outlook for BTC's performance in October, supported by several key catalysts. The recent surge in ETF inflows further validates this thesis.With the SEC easing approval requirements for crypto ETFs, our desk expects a broader array of products tied to various crypto assets to become available to investors. Nevertheless, our analysts anticipate that the majority of capital will remain concentrated on BTC and ETH ETFs in the coming months, driven by their superior market liquidity.

Macro at a glance 
Thursday, September 25US initial jobless claims fell to a multi-month low of 218,000, beating the forecast of 233,000, signaling continued strength in the labor market.US durable goods orders are projected to have surged 2.9% month-over-month in August, significantly outperforming the prior forecast of a 0.3% decline, reflecting robust consumer demand and improving business confidence.Friday, September 26US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data aligned with expectations: headline PCE inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and core PCE at 2.9% in August.The steady inflation readings support the market’s growing expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October. US equities rebounded, ending a three-day decline, while Bitcoin found support around $108k level and staged a recovery.Tuesday, September 30The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60%, as widely anticipated, reflecting caution following strong inflation data in August after the prior month’s rate cut.China’s manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.8 in September from 49.4 in August, indicating a modest easing of contractionary pressures but still below the 50 expansion threshold.US Chicago PMI plunged to 40.6, well below the forecasted 43.4, signaling a sharp contraction in regional manufacturing activity.US Conference Board Consumer Confidence declined to 94.2 in September, missing expectations and falling from August’s 97.8, reflecting growing economic uncertainty.US JOLTS job openings rose to 7.227 million in August, exceeding estimates and underscoring persistent labor market tightness.The US government entered a partial shutdown due to a funding impasse between Republicans and Democrats, suspending some federal services and furloughing approximately 750,000 workers, adding near-term economic uncertainty.Wednesday, October 1Eurozone CPI is projected to rise to 2.2% year-over-year in September, up from 2.0% in August, while core CPI is expected to remain steady at 2.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the region.US ADP nonfarm employment unexpectedly declined by 32,000 jobs in September, contrasting with the forecasted increase of 52,000, raising concerns about labor market softness.The weaker employment data increased market expectations for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut by the end of October, with a smaller probability of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut.US equity markets advanced on growing rate cut optimism, while the crypto market experienced strong buying momentum in tandem.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!

You can also reach out to us on Telegram (@Binance_OTC_Desk) to connect directly with our experienced traders for your OTC trading needs. We look forward to assisting you and providing exceptional service for all your OTC transactions.

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Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
As highlighted in our previous report, Bitcoin is currently forming a bull flag pattern, with the upper trendline serving as a key resistance level. BTC failed to break above the $117,000 mark and was subsequently rejected, now trading below the critical $113,000 support. Having retested this resistance trendline, which has been in place since December 2024, our desk anticipates a corrective move toward the $108,000 support level, as indicated by the blue line on the chart.Following the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut last Wednesday, the market’s upward momentum has largely dissipated. The rate cut was widely anticipated and fully priced in ahead of the FOMC meeting, prompting our desk to caution about a potential shift in market dynamics post-announcement. While the crypto market experienced a retracement, US equities rallied, reflecting a capital rotation from crypto assets back into traditional financial markets. This behavior suggests limited market optimism for rapid liquidity easing beyond September. Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain its interest rate, coupled with a hawkish stance on future hikes and a gradual plan to offload ETFs, signals a clear message: the BOJ will not aggressively inject liquidity into global markets.On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that US stock valuations remain elevated, raising concerns that the Fed may sustain a restrictive monetary policy for an extended period to prevent overheating and stagflation. His remarks underscore that upcoming rate cuts are likely driven more by labor market weakness than by confidence in inflation control. Should the labor market demonstrate resilience under a less restrictive environment, it is expected that the Fed will pause further cuts and refocus on inflation containment.Our desk also observed a notable surge in gold prices alongside a sharp rise in the US 30-year Treasury yield last week, indicating that capital markets are seeking alternative asset classes. Given crypto’s sensitivity to liquidity conditions, it remains vulnerable to global macroeconomic developments and central bank policies. Should central banks slow the pace of rate cuts, we anticipate the current upward momentum in crypto assets will quickly diminish.Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin, and we expect BTC to break out of the current bull flag pattern and initiate the next leg higher, supported by the anticipated rate cut at the October FOMC meeting. However, we also foresee elevated volatility during this period. We recommend that traders manage their positions prudently and leverage our OTC and Execution services to minimize risk exposure and safeguard profits.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.As illustrated in the table, BTC spot ETFs experienced a net capital inflow of $159.87 million over the past five trading days, despite negative outflows on Monday and Tuesday. Our desk has observed some capital rotation from crypto investments into the US stock market, particularly within the semiconductor sector. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut last week was fully anticipated and priced in ahead of the announcement, which largely explains the market retracement observed after Wednesday. We view this pullback as temporary, with the broader global market poised to benefit from a less restrictive liquidity environment.Our seasonality analysis further supports a positive outlook for BTC in October, especially during a Fed rate cut cycle. The strong inflows observed on Wednesday indicate that institutional investors remain confident in BTC’s long-term prospects.

Macro at a glance 
On Thursday, September 18, Australia surprised markets with an unexpected 5.4k decline in employment for August, sharply contrasting the forecasted 21.2k increase. Despite this, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, signaling underlying labor market resilience. The Bank of England kept its interest rate steady at 4.00%, in line with market expectations following its 25 basis point cut in August. The BoE remains vigilant against inflationary pressures, steadfastly targeting a sustainable 2% inflation rate.On Friday, September 19, Japan’s national core CPI eased from 3.1% in July to 2.7% in August, reflecting moderated inflationary trends. The Bank of Japan maintained its 0.50% interest rate but adopted a hawkish stance by initiating sales of ETFs and REITs, triggering a yen rally and a pullback in the stock market. On Tuesday, September 23, Fed Chair Powell highlighted that asset prices remain elevated, prompting a market correction that saw stocks decline and Bitcoin dip below $112,000. On Wednesday, September 24,US new home sales surged to 800,000 units in August, surpassing the forecasted 650,000 and reflecting continued economic resilience. This robust housing data was supported by the Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis point rate cut, which has evidently bolstered buyer confidence.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. 
Email: trading@binance.com for more information.
Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!
You can also reach out to us on Telegram (@Binance_OTC_Desk) to connect directly with our experienced traders for your OTC trading needs. We look forward to assisting you and providing exceptional service for all your OTC transactions.

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Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
As we highlighted in our previous reports, we anticipated the Federal Reserve would initiate the next rate-cut cycle in September, setting a bullish foundation for risk assets, particularly Bitcoin ($BTC). On September 17, the Fed delivered a 25 basis point rate cut at its FOMC meeting and signaled two additional cuts by the end of 2025. Similarly, the Bank of Canada resumed its easing cycle after a six-month pause, lowering its key policy rate to 2.50%. Our desk observes a clear global trend toward monetary easing among major central banks, with the notable exception of the Bank of Japan (BOJ).The BOJ is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision this Friday, with the market widely expecting it to maintain its current rate at 0.50%. While the BOJ has held off on rate hikes so far, we believe that once it resumes tightening, it could introduce uncertainty into the global economy and increase volatility across crypto assets.The Fed’s 25 basis point cut was fully priced in a week ago, and BTC has since rebounded from support at $108,000 to around $117,000. The price is currently forming a bullish flag pattern, as highlighted in the chart. We anticipate a short consolidation phase at this level, building momentum for a potential breakout above the upper trendline and the next leg up in BTC’s rally.A notable theme gaining traction recently is the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) approach, where many publicly listed companies are acquiring and holding crypto assets on their balance sheets. This institutional adoption has driven significant price appreciation in large-cap tokens such as Ethereum ($ETH), Solana ($SOL), and Binance Coin ($BNB). Consequently, BTC’s market dominance has declined below 60%, currently sitting at 57.7%, signaling the onset of the long-awaited altcoin season. However, our desk notes that this shift is primarily driven by institutional accumulation of large-cap tokens rather than the innovation-driven hype seen during the 2021 DeFi summer. The relative lack of enthusiasm for new innovations marks a key difference from previous bull markets.We believe this current bull cycle is fundamentally different from prior ones, as it is driven by institutionalization and growing mainstream exposure to crypto assets. This trend is fueled not only by the strong performance of crypto but also by institutional investors’ search for alternatives beyond traditional asset classes.Concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence have prompted investors and central banks to diversify away from US Treasuries. This is evidenced by the surge in precious metals prices: gold recently hit a new all-time high of $3,700, up from $3,310 just a month ago. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 4%, and the 30-year yield peaked near 5% at the end of August before retreating amid expectations of Fed rate cuts. The rapid rise in gold prices signals a rotation from US Treasuries into safe-haven assets. Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” is also gaining investor confidence due to its unique investable characteristics.Our desk expects that as institutional investors continue to accumulate BTC with a long-term horizon, price volatility will diminish, and the bull market cycle will extend, increasingly mirroring the behavior of the US stock market.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.As shown in the table, BTC spot ETF capital inflows exceeded $500 million on both September 11 and 12, reflecting strong market confidence following the US CPI release on September 11. The CPI data reinforced expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin its rate-cut cycle, which was fully priced in ahead of the September 17 FOMC meeting.On September 16, inflows remained robust at $292.27 million, continuing the bullish momentum. However, on September 17, following Fed Chair Powell’s rate cut announcement and renewed concerns over the US labor market, we observed a net outflow of $51.28 million. This suggests that some investors took profits from the recent BTC rally and rotated capital back into traditional assets, supported by new all-time highs in US equity indexes and declining US Treasury yields.From a capital flow perspective, our desk notes that investors are strategically leveraging BTC to maximize short-term gains while reallocating funds to the US stock market, particularly given the strong performance of US technology stocks.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday, September 11:The European Central Bank held interest rates steady as expected, maintaining an optimistic outlook on growth and inflation, which tempered expectations for further borrowing cost cuts.US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data aligned with forecasts, showing 2.9% annual growth in August, with core CPI rising 3.1%.However, US initial jobless claims surged to 263,000 last week, exceeding the forecasted 235,000 and signaling a weakening labor market.Last Friday, September 12:Germany’s CPI recorded 2.2% annual growth in August, with monthly growth slowing to 0.1% from July’s 0.3%.On Tuesday, September 16:US retail sales demonstrated robust momentum, rising 0.6% month-over-month in August, well above the 0.2% forecast. Core retail sales also accelerated from 0.4% in July to 0.7% in August, surpassing expectations.Canada’s CPI declined by 0.1% in August, following July’s 0.3% increase, positioning the Bank of Canada favorably to consider further rate cuts to stimulate the economy.On Wednesday, September 17:The UK’s CPI grew 0.3% month-over-month in August, maintaining an annual rate of 3.8%, unchanged from July.Eurozone CPI rose 2.0% year-over-year in August, slightly below the forecasted 2.1%.The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 2.50%, marking its first reduction in six months. The move reflects a softening labor market and reduced inflationary pressures, with the bank signaling readiness for additional cuts if economic risks intensify.Similarly, the Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis point rate cut at its September FOMC meeting, passing with an 11-to-1 vote. The Fed indicated two more cuts are likely before the end of 2025 amid growing concerns over the US labor market, despite persistent inflationary pressures.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. 

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In last week’s report, our desk highlighted the significance of the red trendline, which has recently flipped to act as a key resistance level. We emphasized that reclaiming and sustaining price action above this trendline is critical to maintaining upward momentum. However, following the release of the core PCE price index last Friday, the market shifted decisively into a risk-off mode amid growing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence.The ongoing lawsuit involving Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and US President Donald Trump has the potential to escalate to the Supreme Court, carrying profound implications for the Fed’s autonomy. Historically, the Federal Reserve has operated as an independent central bank, making monetary policy decisions grounded in economic data and long-term objectives, free from political interference or short-term political agendas. Should the court rule in favor of President Trump, it would set a dangerous precedent, signaling that political actors can exert undue influence or intimidation on the Fed to pursue policies aligned with transient political goals rather than sound economic principles. Such an outcome would severely undermine the Fed’s credibility and its role as an impartial steward of the US economy and the global economy.The erosion of Fed independence would likely trigger a loss of confidence across global markets, which depend heavily on the Fed’s stability and predictability. Investors would interpret this as heightened political risk, potentially leading to increased market volatility, capital outflows, and rising borrowing costs. Furthermore, it could weaken the US dollar’s position as the world’s primary reserve currency, with far-reaching consequences for global financial stability.Compounding these concerns, the persistently elevated core PCE price index, the highest since February, suggests inflationary pressures could accelerate again if the Fed opts to ease monetary policy prematurely. This places the Federal Reserve in a challenging dilemma: either maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to combat inflation or ease rates to support a weakening labor market. Both paths carry significant risks and could negatively impact the long-term health of the US economy.Reflecting these dynamics, traders have expressed their views through capital allocation. Our desk has observed rising long-term bond yields in both the US and the European Union, signaling expectations of sustained inflation or tighter monetary conditions. Simultaneously, precious metals have surged to new all-time highs, underscoring a flight to safe-haven assets amid growing uncertainty.In the cryptocurrency space, trading activity in Bitcoin has been muted recently, with market participants shifting focus toward large-cap altcoins such as Ethereum ($ETH), Solana ($SOL), and Avalanche ($AVAX). Notably, the stablecoin project token Ethena ($ENA) has outperformed in recent days, attracting increased attention. In the options market, the 25-delta skew for BTC options across all maturities indicates a cautious stance among traders, who are favoring put options for downside protection over calls for upside exposure.Based on the comprehensive data and indicators we monitor, it is evident that the market is not yet positioned for a sharp V-shaped rebound. The $108,000 level remains a critical short-term support for Bitcoin. Looking ahead, the upcoming US non-farm payroll data release this Friday will be a pivotal event, providing deeper insights into the labor market’s health. This data could offer clearer signals on the likelihood and timing of further Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.
Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.As shown in the table, capital flows have been mixed over the past several trading days. Following the US markets’ extended Labor Day weekend on September 1, we observed a significant capital influx during the first two trading days post-holiday.Bitcoin has held firm above the $108,000 support level, as noted in the previous section. Given the mixed capital activity on the ETF side, our desk expects BTC to trade sideways in the near term while awaiting further macroeconomic developments to guide future market direction.The upcoming non-farm payroll report this Friday will offer valuable insights into US labor market conditions. Additionally, the US CPI and PPI data releases next week will be critical in assessing the risk of stagflation and informing expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision in September.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday, August 28, US initial jobless claims came in at 229,000, slightly below the forecasted 231,000, signaling a modest easing in labor market pressures. US GDP growth for Q2 was revised upward to 3.3% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the expected 3.0%, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated economic momentum. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reinforced his support for an interest rate cut, indicating openness to a larger reduction should labor market conditions continue to weaken.Last Friday, August 29, Germany’s CPI data showed a 0.1% monthly increase in August, translating to a 2.2% annual rise. Both figures are slightly above prior forecasts. The US PCE price index rose 2.6% year-over-year in July, with core PCE inflation steady at 2.9%, matching economists’ expectations. The US market reacted cautiously, retracing gains amid concerns over the highest core inflation reading since February.On Sunday, August 31, China’s Manufacturing PMI for August, registered at 49.4, marginally below the forecast of 49.5, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity.On Tuesday, September 2, Eurozone CPI rebounded to 2.1% year-over-year in August from July’s 2.0%, with core CPI rising to 2.3%, exceeding forecasts. US manufacturing data showed mixed signals: S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.0, just shy of the 53.3 forecast, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, missing the expected 49.0 and signaling contraction. The US market opened lower after the Labor Day weekend amid rising long-term Treasury yields. Gold surged past $3,500 for the first time, reflecting a risk-off sentiment fueled by legal uncertainties surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Bitcoin rallied alongside precious metals, reclaiming the $110,000 level against the US dollar.On Wednesday, September 3, US JOLTS job openings declined from 7.357 million in June to 7.181 million in July, missing the forecasted 7.380 million. This softer labor demand underscores a weakening US job market and increases the likelihood of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.

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Overall Market
Data source: TradingView
In last week’s report, our desk emphasized the critical importance of maintaining the key trendline to sustain Bitcoin’s upward momentum. We also identified $108,000 as the next significant support level should the trendline fail. While Bitcoin’s price action was weaker than initially expected, the trendline held as support, bolstered by the dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last Friday. However, the subsequent price surge appeared more like a short squeeze than a genuine shift in market momentum. Over the weekend, the bearish pressure resumed, culminating in a decisive break below the trendline on Monday. Bitcoin then tested the $108,000 support level, exactly as we anticipated in our previous analysis.Following the confirmed breakdown, the former trendline has now flipped to act as resistance. Tuesday’s modest rebound was largely driven by Ethereum’s strong performance, fueled by a bullish tweet from Tom Lee, the renowned Wall Street strategist and current chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR). Bitmine Immersion has emerged as the largest corporate treasury holder of Ethereum and ranks second in crypto treasury holdings among US-listed companies, trailing only MicroStrategy. Tom Lee’s positive outlook, combined with Bitmine Immersion’s aggressive ETH accumulation, has reignited market enthusiasm for Ethereum. The ETH/BTC ratio continues its upward trajectory, currently trading at 0.4141, an 83% increase since Lee’s appointment as chairman of Bitmain in June 2025. Our desk has also observed significant ETH withdrawals from centralized exchanges, signaling strong demand from institutions, which reduced circulating supply. Therefore, we expect sustained upward price pressure on ETH as the trend continues.Solana (SOL), the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has also demonstrated robust performance against Bitcoin, supported by several corporations adopting Solana in their crypto treasury strategies. While traders are optimistic that Solana could replicate Ethereum’s rally, our desk maintains a more measured outlook. We believe Solana will benefit from corporate treasury inflows, but the scale of capital entering SOL will be considerably smaller than what Ethereum has experienced, leading to relative underperformance over the long term. A key factor is the absence of a dedicated ETF venue for Solana, which was instrumental in driving Ethereum’s price surge by attracting substantial institutional and retail investment. Without this critical channel, Solana’s price momentum is likely to be more muted.Additionally, traditional finance institutions, including banks and credit card companies, are heavily investing in Ethereum’s infrastructure, particularly in applications involving stablecoins, Real World Assets (RWA), and other innovations. Although Solana boasts higher Transactions Per Second (TPS) than Ethereum, the ETH network remains the most decentralized and benefits from the largest, most mature developer community. This foundational strength further supports Ethereum’s dominant position and long-term growth potential relative to Solana.Following the brief surge in Bitcoin’s price triggered by Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks, our desk anticipates an extended period of sideways trading for BTC in the coming weeks. We remain cautiously optimistic that Bitcoin could stage another rally following the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut in September. However, the upcoming PCE inflation data, due this Friday, will be a critical catalyst for the crypto market’s direction next month. Should the inflation figures come in higher than expected, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September would diminish significantly, and Bitcoin may be pressured to retest the $108,000 support level.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.Over the past five trading days, our desk observed relatively muted capital inflows into Bitcoin despite its strong price rally last Friday. The dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell triggered a short squeeze across the crypto market, briefly lifting BTC prices. However, this momentum proved short-lived as selling pressure quickly re-emerged over the weekend, driving Bitcoin below the critical $110,000 level. This price action underscores the market’s current hesitancy and the need for more sustained catalysts to support a decisive upward move in BTC.In contrast, Ethereum has demonstrated robust capital inflows, particularly into ETH ETFs, over the last several days. This influx of institutional and retail investment has provided solid support for ETH, enabling it to reclaim and hold above the $4,550 mark as of Tuesday. The strength in ETH is further reinforced by aggressive corporate treasury adoption, which continues to reduce circulating supply and bolster market confidence.As outlined earlier, our desk expects Bitcoin to trade sideways within a broad range in the near term, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and consolidation. Meanwhile, we maintain a bullish outlook on Ethereum, driven by strong fundamentals, strategic corporate accumulation, and growing institutional interest. This divergence highlights Ethereum’s increasing role as a preferred asset in the evolving crypto landscape, positioning it well for sustained growth even as Bitcoin navigates a period of consolidation.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday, August 21US initial jobless claims rose slightly to 235,000, exceeding the forecast of 226,000, while continuing claims also increased to 1,972,000, above the expected 1,960,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index experienced a sharp drop to -0.3 in August, well below both last month’s 15.9 and the market forecast of 6.8. S&P Global’s revised Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) projections painted a more optimistic picture, with Manufacturing PMI rising above the 50 expansion threshold to 53.3 (up from 49.7) and Services PMI increasing to 55.4 from 54.2, indicating ongoing US economic expansion.On Friday, August 22 Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole signaled a likely rate cut in September. The Fed also updated its "Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy," moving away from the strict 2% inflation target set post-pandemic and allowing more flexibility, which could pave the way for earlier rate reductions.On Tuesday, August 26Japan’s core CPI growth slowed to 2.0% year-over-year from 2.3% the previous month. US durable goods orders declined by 2.8% in July, a smaller drop than the forecasted 3.8%. US consumer confidence edged down slightly to 97.4 in August from 98.7 in July but remained above expectations.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. 
Email: trading@binance.com for more information.
Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!
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Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
In last week’s report, we highlighted signs of increasing leverage in the market, emphasizing the amplified volatility on both the upside and downside. The significantly higher-than-expected PPI data has intensified market concerns regarding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision at the September FOMC meeting. Prior to the data release, the market was pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut. However, following the elevated PPI reading, expectations were revised downward to a 25 basis point cut.The market reacted with heightened volatility after the surprising PPI figures. Bitcoin ($BTC) sharply declined from a new all-time high of 124,474 USDT to around the $117,000 level. Altcoins experienced even steeper declines, with Ethereum ($ETH) falling from $4,788 to $4,450 and Solana ($SOL) dropping from $209 to $186.At the time of writing, BTC has found some support near the $113,000 level. The red trendline shown in the chart above, which acted as resistance in May, flipped to support at the end of July following a strong breakout on July 11, when BTC surpassed $118,000 for the first time. This bullish momentum was initially driven by the June FOMC meeting minutes, which revealed a divergence among officials regarding the pace of future rate cuts. Additionally, aggressive capital inflows into BTC ETFs amplified market sentiment, pushing BTC decisively above resistance with increased volume.After the Fed held interest rates unchanged in July, surprisingly weak revised labor market data bolstered market confidence that a 50 basis point rate cut would occur in September. This expectation of substantial liquidity injection fueled a rally in risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. US equity indices reached new highs in early August, while ETH surged toward its all-time high of $4,868, last seen in November 2021.However, the elevated PPI data tempered this enthusiasm. The report underscores persistent inflationary pressures in the US, driven by tariffs on goods and sticky service prices. While oil prices previously helped offset inflation, their mitigating effect has diminished rapidly. Consequently, traders have lowered their expectations for the September rate cut to a quarter percent. Our desk has also observed increased risk-off behavior ahead of the upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Powell, scheduled for 10 am Eastern Time this Friday.Our desk remains cautiously optimistic and is closely monitoring the key red trendline. Should BTC hold this support and rebound with strong volume, we expect the upward momentum to continue, providing altcoins an opportunity to rally. Conversely, if BTC breaks below this critical level, we anticipate a deeper correction over the coming weeks, with support likely near $108,000 and $105,000.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.Over the past five trading days, the BTC ETF has experienced significant outflows totaling $609 million. These outflows began last Friday, immediately following the unexpected surge in PPI data and the subsequent shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision in September. The substantial outflows coincided with the decline in BTC prices, reflecting a broader pullback by traditional finance investors from risk assets.This capital retracement is not isolated to cryptocurrencies. Similar patterns are evident across the US equity markets, indicating a market-wide adjustment. Our desk views this outflow as a reflection of broader macroeconomic dynamics rather than a crypto-specific event. In other words, BTC price movements are increasingly influenced by global macro factors rather than the traditional crypto cycle.The prevailing risk-off sentiment stems from revised expectations on Fed rate cuts. Despite this, the market still anticipates a 25 basis point cut in September and a total of two cuts by year-end, maintaining a generally favorable outlook for risk assets. This perspective aligns with and supports the bullish outlook detailed in the previous section.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday, August 14, 2025UK GDP exceeded expectations in June, growing 0.4% month-over-month versus the forecasted 0.2%. Quarterly and annual growth projections were subsequently revised upward.US initial jobless claims remained low and stable at 224,000, closely matching the forecast of 225,000.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) surged 0.9% in July, well above the 0.2% forecast and following a flat reading in June. This indicates rising inflationary pressures in manufacturing, leading markets to reduce expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September rate cut from 50 basis points to 25 basis points.The crypto market reacted sharply, with Bitcoin’s price dropping from $124,000 to $117,000, while altcoins experienced even steeper declines.Last Friday, August 15, 2025US retail sales increased 0.5% in July, slightly below the forecasted 0.6%. Core retail sales met expectations with a 0.3% monthly increase.Tuesday, August 19, 2025Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month in July, in line with forecasts. Core CPI remained steady at 0.1%, unchanged from June and below the forecasted 0.4%, resulting in a 2.6% year-over-year increase.The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, the second-lowest among Western central banks.Wednesday, August 20, 2025UK inflation surprised on the upside in July, with CPI rising 0.1% month-over-month versus an expected 0.1% decline, translating to a 3.8% annual inflation rate compared to the 3.7% forecast.Eurozone CPI remained flat month-over-month in July, with a year-over-year rate steady at 2.0%. Core CPI held firm at 2.3%, unchanged from June. Inflation in the Eurozone has remained well-contained around the 2% target over the past two months.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 
Email: trading@binance.com for more information.
Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!
You can also reach out to us on Telegram (https://t.me/Binance_OTC_Desk) to connect directly with our experienced traders for your OTC trading needs. We look forward to assisting you and providing exceptional service for all your OTC transactions.

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Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
Last week, we noted that despite various headwinds - such as the US President’s tariff announcement at the start of the month, and the sharp downward revision to US non-farm payrolls soon after - Bitcoin $BTC managed to recover lost ground as investors began to see the potential upside of a more dovish Fed and its implications for risk assets.BTC’s price over the last seven days has more than just impressively rebounded, with a new all-time-high of $124,000 reached on Thursday 14 August.  Within this period, as will be discussed below, we have seen an encouraging set of BTC Spot ETF inflows and continued expansion of corporate interest. BTC’s resilience amidst recent economic headwinds is well illustrated in Figure (a) below, which maps price drawdowns from the most recent ATH over a year-to-date period. Figure (b) presents a related point - BTC’s price volatility has notably moved downward while price has moved upward since April of this year.

Figure (a): BTC price drawdown from ATH: January 2025 to present day

Source: newhedge.io, as of Thursday 14 August 2025.
The above chart shows BTC’s price - the white line using the right hand vertical axis - and the percentage drawdown from its latest all-time-high - the red bars using the left hand vertical axis - since January of this year. As can be seen, during Q1 and Q2 of this year, we saw drawdowns as large as -30%, but in the current quarter drawdowns have been less pronounced, generally hovering around the -5% mark and pointing at resilience despite recent headwinds.
Figure (b): 30D Annualized BTC Volatility: March 2013 to present day

Source: coinglass.com, as of Thursday 14 August 2025.
The above chart shows BTC’s price with the yellow line, and 30D annualized volatility shown with the green line. The latter measure quantifies the degree of variation or fluctuation in BTC’s price over the past 30 days, scaled to an annual basis. As mentioned, the opposite movements of price and volatility on the right hand area of the chart is notable. We view this (and the data in figure (a)) as reflective of the growing institutional participation in BTC - these participants bring greater market depth & liquidity, longer-term investment horizons and utilise more sophisticated training & risk management which generally reduces the occurrence of extreme price swings.
Digital asset treasuries (“DATs”) continue to become a major form of market entry (and, corporate diversification) for institutions. BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) announced on Tuesday August 12 that it planned to sell up to USD 20 billion worth of stock to bolster its Ethereum $ETH holdings. BitMine currently holds around USD 5 billion worth of $ETH, making it the largest such treasury worldwide. In similar fashion, the gaming company SharpLink (SBET) announced on Monday August 11 that it had entered into a securities purchase agreement for USD 400 million of stock to fuel its $ETH treasury. Altcoins continue to post momentum, with Ethereum ($ETH) leading the charge with a c.28% increase over the past seven days - with a price now less than 3% off its $4,878 all-time-high reached in November 2021. Ripple ($XRP), Solana ($SOL) and Dogecoin ($DOGE) have risen around 8%, 21% and 19% respectively over the same period, underscoring the intensifying bullish activity among investors in the altcoin space. BNB ($BNB) over this period has enjoyed a 12% increase in price, and posted another all-time-high of $864 on August 14. Figure (c) below, from Glassnode’s research, can give us an idea of broader market activity for altcoins through looking at open interest, which measures the total number of outstanding derivatives contracts that have not been settled or closed.
Figure (c): Open Interest (OI) for largecap altcoins is at an all-time high:

Source: Glassnode insights, as of August 12, 2025.
The above chart shows open interest (OI) for $ETH (blue area), $SOL (purple), $XRP (green), and $DOGE (dark green). As can be seen, the recent price action among these altcoins has seen OI reach an all time high of USD 47 billion. Greater OI points to a higher degree of leverage within the market - which is worth noting, as this can of course amplify both upward & downward price movements.
As noted in our previous commentary, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will in a week’s time be speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium event in Wyoming. His comments will come against a backdrop of recent weak labor market figures and signs of tariff-driven inflation, and could be pivotal in shaping perceptions of the central bank’s policy for the remainder of this year. As of the time of writing, the popular prediction market Polymarket, renowned for its accuracy to date, has a 25bps decrease at 80% likelihood, up from 70% at the beginning of this month.Our expectation for Bitcoin to push towards its all-time-highs in the coming weeks remains unchanged. Sentiment continues to be bullish in light of the Fed’s current dovish tone and heightened expectations of a rate cut in September. Jerome Powell’s speech next week is an event we are keeping an eye on, with its potential to influence near and medium-term price movement. Should an accommodating monetary environment prevail from September, combined with continued institutional adoption, we would expect BTC to rally strongly and altcoins to follow suit. 

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.According to the data presented above, the market experienced a significant net inflow of approximately $1.02 billion over the observed period. In last week’s report you may recall we saw a four day consecutive period of net outflows before August 6 - this is in stark contrast to what now (as of August 13) marks six consecutive days of heavy positive inflows for BTC Spot ETFs.Notable news contributing to bullish institutional sentiment for BTC Spot ETFs came on Friday 08 August, when it emerged that Harvard’s endowment (overseen by the Harvard Management Company) had purchased 1.9 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, equivalent to around USD 116 million at the time. This landmark adoption represents 8% of the entire endowment. Fellow Ivy League member Brown University in an 08 August SEC filing reported holding over USD 13 million of shares in the same ETF, after initially allocating  USD 5 million to the same ETF back in March of this year.Central Asia’s first Spot BTC ETF went live this week, with Fonte Capital introducing the investment vehicle on Kazakhstan’s Astana International Exchange. The Fonte Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (“BETF”) holds Bitcoin under custody, as opposed to using futures contracts, and is the first regulated and physically-backed Bitcoin ETF in the region.Our desk firmly believes that as the institutionalization of the crypto market advances, ETF capital flows will play an increasingly dominant role in driving Bitcoin’s spot price. The maturation of ETF products and their growing adoption by institutional investors will likely amplify the impact of these flows, making them a key factor to monitor for both short-term price movements and longer-term market trends. We expect that ETF activity will continue to serve as a barometer for institutional appetite and risk sentiment, ultimately influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory more profoundly than ever before.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday, August 07, 2025The Bank of England (BoE) decided to lower interest rates from 4.25% to 4%, marking the lowest rate since March of 2023. Out of the 9 monetary policy committee members voting, 5 backed the cut, while 4 voted for no change. One more rate cut this year is expected by the market, with the next decision taking place on September 18, 2025.China released its annual import and export figures for July 2025, with exports rising by 7.2% (above an expected 5.4% increase) and imports increasing 4.1% - despite a 1.0% decline expected by markets. The rise in imports has likely been driven by ongoing stimulus efforts to enhance domestic demand. The rise in exports was helped by tariff pressures temporarily easing, and a 90 day truce between China & the US was recently agreed on August 12. Saturday, August 09, 2025China’s annual inflation figures for July 2025 showed that consumer prices were flat over 12 months, despite a 0.1% drop expected by the markets. On a monthly basis however, July 2025 CPI saw a 0.4% increase, marking the highest reading since January 2025, with recent extreme weather being a key factor. On Tuesday, August 12, 2025The US’ annual inflation rate was unchanged for July 2025 at 2.7%, slightly below a 2.8% forecast. On a monthly basis CPI increased by 0.2% for July 2025, in line with expectations. Notably, core inflation (that excluding energy & food) month-on-month increased 3.1%, the highest reading in five months albeit in line with market expectations.The UK’s unemployment rate in April to June 2025 was unchanged from the previous period at 4.7%, as expected by markets. The rate is at its highest level since the equivalent reading for July 20

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

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Overall Market

Data source: TradingView
Last week, we pointed out that Bitcoin’s price had been stuck in a tight range for nearly three weeks, and we expected the FOMC meeting to be the catalyst to help BTC to find its direction. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold its interest rates steady on Wednesday didn’t really move the needle, but our desk remains bullish on Bitcoin and large-cap altcoins over the next couple of months.However, things didn’t go exactly as planned. On Thursday, the U.S. President’s tariff announcement on multiple trading partners pushed BTC down to the lower end of its range. Then, Friday’s surprising revision to the non-farm payroll numbers hit risk assets hard. Bitcoin broke below the key $115,500 support level and tested the red trendline on the chart. The sell-off wasn’t limited to crypto; U.S. stocks dropped nearly 2%. Altcoins fell even more sharply as recession fears resurfaced, following the release of weak US labour market data. Meanwhile, gold rallied as a safe haven, and U.S. yields dropped, with markets now pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at September’s FOMC meeting. Over the weekend, the initial panic eased as investors started to see the potential upside of a more dovish Fed, which would be a big positive for risk assets.On the institutional front, the story remains strong. Despite the recent dip, U.S. companies are continuing to accumulate BTC and ETH, with more firms publicly adopting crypto treasury strategies and adding large-cap coins like BTC, ETH, BNB, and XRP to their balance sheets. This steady buying is boosting confidence and driving more flow into the market, especially in large caps. The executive order signed this Thursday, allowing crypto and real estate investments in retirement plans, gave the market another boost, pushing BTC above $117,000 and ETH past $3,900. This executive order opens the door for trillions of dollars in retirement funds to enter the crypto market. These retirement plan investments are primarily long-term and typically follow a buy-and-hold strategy focused on quality assets. With this approach, our desk expects retirement plan participation to significantly reduce the circulating supply of crypto assets, especially benefiting large-cap coins that have proven resilience through at least one market cycle. While the positive impact may take several months to fully materialize due to the conservative nature of investment managers, we believe this executive order marks a pivotal moment in crypto investment history. It has the potential to alter the current BTC cycle dynamics by reducing volatility on both the upside and downside.In the near term, with sentiment turning bullish again, we expect Bitcoin to push toward its all-time highs in the coming weeks. The upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be a key event. Given last week’s weak labor data, we anticipate a dovish tone that could confirm a September rate cut. If that scenario unfolds, expect a strong rally in BTC followed by an even larger move in altcoins as the market prices in a less restrictive monetary environment.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.According to the data presented above, the market experienced a significant net outflow of approximately $1.365 billion over the observed period. Notably, Wednesday, 6 August, marked the end of a consecutive four-day outflow streak. Market analysts widely attribute this sustained withdrawal of capital to investor concerns and reactions following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance announced during the July FOMC meeting. This period of outflows underscores the sensitivity of institutional investors to macroeconomic policy signals, particularly those related to interest rate expectations and monetary tightening.During this five-day window, Bitcoin’s price demonstrated notable volatility, declining from levels above $118,000 to a low near $112,000 before gradually recovering to approximately $117,000 at the time of writing. This price movement closely mirrors the substantial capital shifts observed on the ETF side, reinforcing the critical influence that ETF flows exert on Bitcoin’s price dynamics. The correlation between ETF inflows and outflows and BTC spot price fluctuations highlights the growing importance of these investment vehicles in shaping market sentiment and liquidity.Our desk firmly believes that as the institutionalization of the crypto market advances, ETF capital flows will play an increasingly dominant role in driving Bitcoin’s spot price. The maturation of ETF products and their growing adoption by institutional investors will likely amplify the impact of these flows, making them a key factor to monitor for both short-term price movements and longer-term market trends. We expect that ETF activity will continue to serve as a barometer for institutional appetite and risk sentiment, ultimately influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory more profoundly than ever before.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday, July 31, 2025US month-on-month personal spending for June 2025 increased 0.3%, slightly below 0.4% forecasts, but nonetheless a rebound from May’s flat reading (0% month-on-month). Personal income for the same period also rose 0.3%, rebounding from May 2025’s 0.4% fall.The EU’s three largest economies - Germany, France & Italy - released their year-on-year inflation figures for July 2025. All three countries posted figures that remained unchanged from the June 2025 reading -  Germany’s 2% was slightly higher than the market’s 1.9% expectation, whereas France’s 1% was in line with forecasts. Italy’s 1.7% was above market expectations of 1.5%.Last Friday, August 01, 2025US nonfarm payrolls for July 2025 rose by 73,000, much below the 110,000 increase forecasted by the market. Notably, June and May’s readings were heavily revised downward, by 133,000 and 125,000, respectively - meaning employment for these months was 258,000 lower than initially reported. These revisions suggest that the US labor market may be slowing down faster than originally expected.China’s Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - measuring the economic health of the country’s manufacturing sector - fell from 50.4 in June to 49.5 in July, below forecasts of 50.2. A decline in new export orders owing to trade uncertainty was the main driver of what is the second consecutive contraction in activity within the manufacturing sector.On Monday, August 04, 2025US factory orders fell by 4.8% month-on-month in June, after May’s 8.3% revised increase, thus marking the sharpest MoM decline in new orders since April 2020. Transportation equipment orders were mainly responsible for the drop, which saw a 22.4% fall in volume from May. On Tuesday, August 05, 2025The US ISM Services PMI - an index based on surveys of purchasing managers in the services industry and used as a measure of the services sector’s health - fell to 50.1 in July 2025, from 50.8 in June 2025 and below forecasts of 51.5. The “prices paid” metric within the index jumped to its highest level since October 2022, with tariff-related impacts being the most common topic among survey panelists. 

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Data source: TradingView
In last week’s report, we analyzed the rising number of active addresses across various blockchains and expressed an optimistic outlook on several layer-1 altcoins. We also highlighted that one of the key conditions behind altcoins outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) last week was BTC’s resilience around the $118,000 level. Because the BTC price showed its resilience despite BTC whales’ sale, it provided a solid foundation for altcoins to gain momentum as capital rotated sequentially from BTC to large-cap altcoins and then to smaller-cap altcoins.This week, our desk observed some profit-taking across altcoins, accompanied by a rebound in BTC dominance from 60.4% to above 62%. While BTC found robust support above the $116,000 level, smaller altcoins experienced double-digit retracements amid a lack of capital inflows. We view this as a normal and healthy correction within the altcoin segment, and the magnitude of the retracement aligns with our expectations. Our research indicates that such altcoin pullbacks during periods of BTC price consolidation are typical characteristics of an ongoing altcoin season. Provided BTC continues to trade within its current range, we anticipate altcoins will maintain their outperformance relative to BTC in the coming months, with BTC dominance gradually declining during the same time.As shown in the chart above, BTC has been trading within a narrow range for nearly three weeks, which we interpret as a consolidation phase preceding the next upward leg. If BTC is ready to break the current tight trading range, our desk anticipates the market focus will shift back to BTC, with altcoins rising along with the BTC tide.On the macro front, the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held interest rates steady at 4.50%, in line with broad market expectations. Notably, for the first time in over three decades, two Federal Reserve officials, Waller and Bowman, both viewed as moderate to slightly hawkish Fed officials, dissented, advocating for a rate cut. This signals growing internal pressure within the Fed to pivot monetary policy. Fed Chair Powell, in his post-decision press conference, maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing that no rate cuts are planned for September and that future decisions will remain data-dependent. He reiterated the Fed’s dual mandate to maximize employment and stabilize prices. Given the strong U.S. labor market and low unemployment, the Fed’s primary focus remains on reducing inflation to a neutral level.Recent trade agreements between the U.S. and its trading partners are anticipated to mitigate the tariff-related impacts on U.S. goods with lower tariffs on US imports. Furthermore, these agreements include commitments from trading partners to make substantial purchases of U.S. products, which is expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar relative to other fiat currencies and contribute to easing inflationary pressures domestically. Should economic data released in August confirm this outlook, the Federal Reserve would be better positioned to consider lowering interest rates at its September meeting.Therefore, our desk believes the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains high. Such a move would likely increase the global liquidity and benefit risk-on assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. We expect increased market activities in the next two months, with BTC leading the next leg up, followed by altcoins potentially outperforming BTC, which could result in a further decline in BTC dominance.Another factor supporting our bullish outlook is the growing adoption of crypto treasury strategies by corporations. This approach involves companies issuing new equity to raise capital, which is then used to acquire and hold crypto assets on their balance sheets. Importantly, these purchases are equity-funded rather than debt-financed, reducing liquidation risk in the event of price declines. Theoretically, this approach reduces the circulating supply and exerts upward pressure on crypto asset prices.In summary, our desk remains constructive on the crypto market in the near term. We view corporate crypto treasury adoption as a potential new catalyst for Bitcoin and large-cap altcoins. However, the upward trajectory is not always a smooth straight line, and we anticipate increasing volatility along the way. We recommend that traders and investors manage their positions and leverage prudently. Binance users are welcome to ask for quotes with our Binance OTC desk via live chat and Telegram to access deep liquidity and competitive pricing.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.Per the data presented above, Wednesday 30 July marked the fifth consecutive day of positive ETF inflows for BTC, with net inflows sitting at $641m for the period. On a side note, cumulative total net inflows for BTC ETFs have now surpassed $55b to-date. On Tuesday July 29, the SEC approved in-kind creation and redemption processes for all spot BTC and ETH ETFs. In-kind creation means authorized participants (large institutional investors who facilitate ETF liquidity) can deliver BTC or ETH to the ETF provider in exchange for ETF shares, rather than cash. In-kind redemption is the reverse of this, and the process generally helps maintain tighter tracking of the ETF price to the underlying asset price. Further positive regulatory sentiment came on Wednesday 30 July as the White House released “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology”, a landmark report urging Congress to enhance crypto legislation and outlining a roadmap intending to make the US the “crypto capital” of the world. The above regulatory developments are positive for continued institutional participation in the Spot BTC ETF (and other crypto ETFs), a factor our desk views as a critical driver of BTC price dynamics. Institutional participation across the board has remained at strong levels - Spot Ethereum ETFs enjoyed $973m of inflows for the same period as in our BTC ETF data above. Assuming continued institutional adoption and capital inflows through the rest of the year, alongside positive actions from regulators, our $150,000 year-end price target remains unchanged. Demand for BTC remains robust and we expect the ongoing bull market to sustain its upward momentum in the coming months.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday, July 24, 2025In the US, initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 week-on-week to 217,000, contrary to market expectations of an increase to 227,000 and marking the sixth consecutive decline in the figure. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced no changes to its main interest rate of 2.15%, with policymakers acknowledging the uncertainty caused by tariff proposals from the US. EU inflation is now at its 2% medium-term target. Last Friday, July 25, 2025Month-on-month durable goods orders in the US fell by 9.3% in June, following a 16.5% increase in May. Orders for transport equipment were responsible for the majority of this decrease, with a 22.4% decline month-on-month. On Tuesday, July 29, 2025US Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) figures fell by 275,000 to 7.437 million for June, greater than the market’s  expected 162,000 drop. Job openings in the retail sector increased the most (+190,000), while openings in the accommodation & food services sector decreased the most (-308,000).On Wednesday, July 30, 2025The Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, as expected by markets. This marks the fifth consecutive meeting with no change to the rate and reflects concerns regarding the Reserve’s 2% inflation target being reached. Policymakers noted that economic activity had “moderated” in H1 of this year, and while labor market conditions remained robust, uncertainty regarding the economic outlook “remains elevated”.Year-on-year GDP figures for June were released for Germany, France & Italy, the three largest Eurozone economies. Germany saw annual GDP grow by 0.4% in Q2 2025, greater than the market’s expectations of 0.2%. For the same period, France’s economy grew 0.7% year-on-year while Italian GDP increased 0.4%, the latter of which was markedly below market expectations of 0.6%.

\Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

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In our previous report, our desk’s analysis suggested that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate sideways at current levels for another week or two, while altcoins are likely to maintain their outperformance relative to BTC. Although we hold an optimistic view on altcoin performance in the near term, we emphasize the importance of maintaining high conviction in the projects you invest in. Chasing recent strong gainers may not yield superior returns. Given the market’s tendency for rolling rallies across different tokens, holding high-conviction assets and patiently awaiting their turn is expected to deliver better outcomes during this phase.As of July 23, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $118,000 level after briefly hovering at the $120,000 mark on July 22. On-chain data in Figure (a) shows that over 97% of BTC holders remain in-profit, hinting at strong bullish sentiment and investor resilience. 
Figure (a): Global In/Out of the Money addresses: BTC

Source: IntoTheBlock, as at Thursday 24 July 2025.
For any address with a balance of tokens, IntoTheBlock identifies the average price (cost) at which those tokens were purchased and compares it with current price. If Current Price > Average Cost, address is “In the Money.” If Current Price < Average Cost, address is “Out of the Money.”

Ethereum ($ETH) has seen a notable increase in both retail and institutional engagement, with active wallets hitting an all-time high of 152 million, and unprecedented inflows into Ethereum ETFs—on Tuesday, 22 July, Ethereum ETF flows flipped those for Bitcoin for the first time since the ETFs were launched. As of the time of writing, $ETH is hovering around the $3,600 mark. Ethereum’s validator queues have ballooned on both sides, with about 521,000 $ETH waiting to exit the network and 360,000 $ETH now queued to enter the network, reflecting two opposing forces: some stakers are likely locking in gains given recent months’ price action, while fresh deposits are pushing entry, likely due to regulatory catalysts and institutional demand. Figure (b) shows how the Ethereum validator exit queue has spiked in recent days.
Figure (b): Ethereum validator queue

Source: The Block, as at Thursday 24 July 2025.
Ethereum validators are nodes that have staked ETH and operate software to maintain network security. They alternate between proposing new blocks and validating blocks proposed by others, earning ETH rewards for their participation. Recently, the validator exit queue hit 521,000 ETH (approximately $1.9 billion), marking its highest level since early 2024. Meanwhile, the entry queue also expanded, with 359,500 ETH (around $1.3 billion) pending to be staked.
It was a notable week for Solana ($SOL), with price surpassing the $200 mark for the first time since February of this year, driven by the ETH price rally alongside significant protocol upgrades. Solana temporarily overtook BNB in terms of market cap before an overnight selloff which saw the price retrace to the $180 level. Accelerate, a new Solana-based crypto treasury firm led by founder and CEO of Asymmetric Financial, Joe McCann, announced plans to go public through a SPAC aiming to raise up to $1.5 billion. BNB ($BNB) itself reached an all-time high above $800 during the past week on the back of a surge in on-chain activity and institutional interest. This rally was in part fueled by Nano Labs increasing its BNB holdings to $90 million. Increased futures activity, strong network fundamentals and bullish sentiment among traders all point to continued momentum, despite a sharp negative retrace to $767 as of Wednesday, 23. XRP also hit an all-time high of $3.66 on July 18, with the number of XRP wallets reaching a record 7.2 million - 1.4 million of which were added since August 2024. Whale-to-exchange transfers of XRP declined by 94% between July 11 to July 21, implying that large holders are not selling off despite the recent price gains.Looking forward, we are keeping an eye on BTC’s price action as it once again hovers around the key $120,000 mark. While recent altcoin price movements have been welcomed by investors, we still view easing global liquidity and lower US interest rates as necessary factors in triggering an altcoin bull market. 
Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.As highlighted in our previous discussions, our desk continues to view capital inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETF as a critical driver of BTC price dynamics. According to the data presented above, despite recent outflows in the first three days of this week, net inflows are sitting at +$600m at the time of writing. As discussed earlier in this article, ETH spot ETF net inflows have been on the rise the past week (c.$2.2b for the same period). This observation paired with the above BTC spot ETF net inflows, may hint at short-term capital rotation from Wall Street. As this is only a recent trend, our desk will wait for further data to emerge before drawing any conclusions about longer-term trends. Our $150,000 year-end price target remains unchanged, assuming continued institutional adoption and capital inflows throughout the rest of the year. Demand for BTC remains robust and we expect the ongoing bull market to sustain its upward momentum in the coming months.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday, July 17, 2025The Euro Area’s year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025 was in line with the European Central Bank’s official target of 2%. The annual core inflation rate (which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) for June 2025 remained unchanged from the previous month and was in line with market expectations at 2.3%.In the United States, initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, well below forecasts of an 8,000 increase to 235,000. Outstanding claims saw a slight decrease to 1,956,000, below forecasts of 1,970,000.Last Friday, July 18, 2025Japan’s annual inflation rate dropped to the lowest level since November of last year, falling to 3.3% for June 2025 compared to 3.5% the previous month and in line with market expectations. Core inflation for June 2025 matched this headline rate at 3.3%. On Monday, July 21, 2025The United States’ Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8, following no change in May 2025. The LEI is used by economists, investors & policymakers to gauge economic outlook, typically 3 to 6 months ahead. June 2025’s figure means the LEI has fallen by 2.8% over H1 2025, compared to H2 2024’s 1.3% contraction. On Wednesday, July 23, 2025The UK’s FTSE 100 closed at a record high on Wednesday, with progress in US trade talks boosting investor optimism, with the US & Japan agreeing on 15% tariffs rather than the previously planned 25% figure. Major FTSE constituents such as AstraZeneca, Shell & GSK supported the index’s rise, with 3%, 1.3% and 1.8% increases in stock price.Japan’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025 declined to 2.3% on an annual basis, below expectations of 2.5% and 0.2% lower than the previous month’s figure. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida in his news conference said that achieving the central bank’s 2% target has increased given reduced uncertainty on trade negotiations. US crude oil inventories fell by 3.169 million barrels for the week ending July 18 2025, notably more than the 1.6 million decline expected by the market. A greater-than-expected decline in inventories implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

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Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the 1D candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report, our desk maintained an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, anticipating a new all-time high in the coming weeks, primarily driven by robust capital inflows from the spot ETF segment. Our analysis highlighted that the muted implied volatility in Bitcoin options signaled the potential for a rapid price movement in either direction. We advised our readers to remain optimistic on Bitcoin’s price trajectory over the higher timeframes while preparing for short-term downside protection.The market evolved more rapidly than expected. The 7-day implied volatility for BTC options surged sharply from 25% on July 10 to over 40% by July 17, coinciding with a notable 6% price gain in seven days. Sustained capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs further propelled BTC’s price beyond the psychological $120,000 level, culminating in a new all-time high of 123,218 USDT.As of July 17, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $118,000 level, while many altcoins have posted impressive double-digit gains last week. Ethereum ($ETH) surged over 23%, briefly surpassing the $3,400 mark on Wednesday. Solana ($SOL) rallied more than 12%, trading above $175 on Wednesday during the US session. Other tokens also delivered strong returns last week, with Curve ($CRV) leading the pack with a 71.4% gain, Ondo ($ONDO) rising over 15% intraday, and Ethereum Name Service (ENS) appreciating by more than 37%.Over the past seven days, projects within the Ethereum ecosystem have benefited significantly from the ETH price rally. This strong performance was notably supported by aggressive accumulation from institutional players. SharpLink Gaming, a publicly listed company following a BTC accumulation strategy similar to Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, acquired $225 million worth of Ethereum in July, bringing its total holdings to approximately 280,000 ETH, valued at $884 million at current prices. Additionally, BitMine Immersion Technologies raised $250 million in June to establish an Ethereum treasury, acquiring over $500 million worth of ETH since then.This substantial corporate accumulation has materially reduced the available market supply of Ethereum, exerting upward pressure on its price and further fueling investor enthusiasm.Looking ahead, our analysis suggests that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate sideways around the current levels for another week or two, while altcoins are likely to maintain their outperformance relative to BTC. Although we hold an optimistic view on altcoin performance in the near term, we emphasize the importance of maintaining high conviction in the projects you invest in. Chasing recent strong gainers may not yield superior returns. Given the market’s tendency for rolling rallies across different tokens, holding high-conviction assets and patiently awaiting their turn is expected to deliver better outcomes during this phase.
Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.As highlighted in our previous discussions, our desk continues to view capital inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETF as a critical driver of BTC price dynamics. According to the data presented above, over $2.2 billion flowed into Bitcoin during last Thursday and Friday, with substantial additional inflows recorded in the first three days of this week. This significant influx of capital underscores strong demand from traditional investors seeking higher growth opportunities and enhanced portfolio diversification.Additionally, our desk observed that a long-term Bitcoin holder, possessing over 80,000 BTC for more than 14 years, has begun to liquidate part of their holdings to realize profits gradually. Notably, the market absorbed the initial 40,000 BTC sell-off with minimal disruption, as BTC’s price declined by less than 1% before quickly recovering.The robust demand for Bitcoin reinforces our conviction that the ongoing bull market will sustain its upward momentum over the coming months. We believe that continued institutional adoption and capital inflows could propel BTC toward our year-end price target of $150,000.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday, July 10, 2025Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered no monthly change in June, holding steady at 0.0%, which corresponds to an annual inflation rate of 2.0%, down from 2.1% in May. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany’s continued moderation in inflation signals progress toward the European Central Bank’s long-term target, reinforcing expectations of price stability in the region.In the United States, initial jobless claims remained low at 227,000, outperforming the forecast of 236,000. Continuing claims also declined to 1,965 thousand, below the anticipated 1,980 thousand. These figures suggest that the U.S. labor market remains resilient and stable amid ongoing economic uncertainties.Last Friday, July 11, 2025Canada reported a surprisingly strong employment gain in June, with 83,100 new jobs added compared to the forecasted 900 positions. The unemployment rate improved to 6.9% from 7.0% in May, beating expectations of a rise to 7.1%. On Monday, July 14, 2025China’s imports rebounded in June, posting a 1.1% year-over-year increase following a 3.4% decline in May. However, this growth fell short of analyst expectations of 1.3%, with ongoing tariff-related challenges continuing to constrain import expansion.Meanwhile, new loan issuance in China surged significantly due to seasonal factors, rising from 620 billion CNY in May to 2,240 billion CNY in June, surpassing the forecast of 1,960 billion CNY. This credit expansion reflects policy efforts to support domestic economic activity.On Tuesday, July 15, 2025China’s second-quarter GDP growth came in at 5.2% year-over-year, with the year-to-date annual growth rate at 5.3%, indicating steady economic momentum.In the U.S., headline CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in June, translating to a 2.7% annual increase—both higher than May’s 0.1% monthly and 2.4% annual figures. Core CPI also increased by 0.2% monthly and 2.9% annually, slightly above the previous month’s 0.1% and 2.8%, respectively. While tariffs began to impact inflation in June, the effect on core inflation components was milder than anticipated. These inflation dynamics increase the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.Canada also experienced an uptick in core CPI, which rose to 2.7% in June from 2.5% in May, reflecting similar inflationary pressures in the region.On Wednesday, July 16, 2025The United Kingdom saw a modest acceleration in headline CPI in June, with a 0.3% monthly increase compared to 0.2% in May. Annual inflation rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% the previous month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.In the U.S., the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, missing the expected 0.2% increase. The annual PPI growth slowed to 2.3% from 2.7% in May, signaling a deceleration in wholesale inflation.
Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

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Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the 1D candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report, our desk maintained an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in the coming weeks, while also highlighting downside risks associated with the upcoming expiration of the US tariffs pause on July 9, 2025. Additionally, we flagged the unusually low implied volatility in BTC options as a potential signal for an imminent significant price move.Last Friday, BTC briefly traded below $107,300, marking a 2.8% decline from Thursday’s high of $109,560. Market sentiment remained relatively subdued, with BTC implied volatility (IV) experiencing a slight rebound after the drop but returning to lower levels over the weekend. The $107,500 level continued to act as key support, aligned with the upper boundary of the established bull flag pattern.Our desk observed a recurring trading pattern related to US tariffs, where risk assets tend to decline ahead of tariff effective dates but rally afterward. As discussed in our March 13 and April 10 commentaries, this phenomenon—colloquially termed “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out)—follows a three-step cycle: initial tariff announcement triggers market sell-off; investors buy the dip anticipating tariff rollback; and finally, tariffs are delayed, reduced, or withdrawn, prompting market recovery.This pattern appeared to repeat on Wednesday, July 9, the final day of the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs introduced on April 9. The market rallied with the announcement that tariffs would take effect on August 1. BTC exhibited strong buying momentum an hour before the US market closed, surging to a new all-time high of $112,000. Altcoins outperformed, with ETH rising over 6% and trading above $2,795.Amid this altcoin strength, BTC dominance (BTC.D) began to decline. Our analysis suggests this trend could continue, potentially driving BTC.D down toward the 50% range over the coming months. This shift may signal the onset of the long-anticipated altcoin season within the current cycle.However, several critical factors remain unresolved before we can confirm this outlook:1. The absence of global liquidity easing, particularly from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed plans to relax the MLR (Minimum Liquidity Requirement) restrictions, our desk expects a more accommodative monetary environment only after the Fed initiates interest rate cuts. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability of a rate cut in the upcoming July 30 meeting has fallen to 5% following last Friday’s strong labor market data.2. The upcoming Token Generation Event (TGE) of Pump.fun coin, currently valued at approximately $4 billion. We are concerned that this large-scale TGE could absorb significant market capital—especially within the Solana ecosystem—potentially causing market disruptions similar to those triggered by $TRUMP earlier in 2025.Without easing global liquidity and lower US interest rates, it is difficult to argue that the long-awaited altcoin season is ready to commence. Institutional adoption, driven by substantial capital inflows into BTC-focused ETFs and public company balance sheets, remains concentrated primarily on Bitcoin, with only modest allocations to $ETH, $SOL, $BNB, and other large-cap altcoins. Unlike previous cycles, this institutional capital has not yet rotated from Bitcoin into altcoins, which historically has been the catalyst for altcoin season.BTC reached a new all-time high on Wednesday, supported by strong upward momentum, while our desk noted notable strength in altcoin performance. We remain optimistic on BTC’s price trajectory in this cycle; however, the persistently muted BTC implied volatility signals caution. Additionally, we are closely monitoring Federal Reserve monetary policy for indications of liquidity easing, as well as the potential market impact of the upcoming Pump.fun coin TGE on the Solana ecosystem, to better assess the likelihood of an upcoming altcoin season.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.Over the past four trading sessions, BTC spot ETFs have experienced substantial capital inflows, totaling over $1.2 billion net. During this period, BTC’s price rose from $108,800 to $111,580, representing a 2.5% gain. Despite strong and sustained capital inflows over the past month, BTC’s price has been trading within a narrow range, which raised concerns within our desk regarding the muted price movement amid robust demand.Following continued ETF inflows and significant corporate purchases by public companies, BTC surged to a new all-time high on Wednesday, reaching the $112,000 level. This breakout suggests that the accumulation from ETF buyers overtook the selling pressure on the market. Looking ahead, our desk anticipates that capital inflows will remain strong, particularly as institutional investors in traditional finance increasingly seek alternative assets to diversify beyond a US-centric investment approach. Against this backdrop of growing institutionalization, we maintain a positive outlook on BTC’s price trajectory.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (July 03, 2025)US unemployment data for June 2025 showed a decrease to 4.1% compared to 4.2% for May 2025, contrary to market expectations of an increase to 4.3%. The unemployment rate has remained within the 4.0%-4.2% range since May 2024, pointing to stability for the broad labor market. Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 147K in June 2025, markedly higher than the forecasted 110K and further underscoring a resilient labor market. The UK S&P Global Composite PMI increased for the second consecutive month to 52.0 for June 2025 (May 2025: 50.3), above forecasts of 50.7. Last Friday (July 04, 2025)The S&P Global UK Construction PMI increased to 48.8 in June 2025 (May 2025: 47.9), with modest growth for residential building outweighed by larger declines in commercial & civil engineering activity.Japan’s household spending rose at the quickest pace in 3 years, with a 4.7% annual increase for June 2025. This was markedly higher than market expectations of a 1.2% increase, and comes on the back of government action aiming at boosting domestic consumption.Tuesday (July 08, 2025)US consumer credit data for May showed consumers are slowing the rate at which they take on additional credit. Total credit increased by $5.1 billion for the month, down from a $16.9 billion increase in April.Minutes of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting of 3-5 June were released, showing that June’s interest rate cut was made to avoid an unnecessary increase in borrowing costs and reduced credit availability. “Highly uncertain” macro conditions were cited by policymakers in light of persistent trade tensions.Wednesday (July 09, 2025)The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June 17-18 meeting were released, with most officials implying that interest rates could be lowered by the end of the year, should certain economic outcomes justify a move. The next Federal Reserve meeting - to set interest rate policy - is set for July 29 & 30. China’s consumer price index fell by 0.10% in June 2025 over the previous month, but rose by 0.10% on an annual basis - marking the first year-on-year increase in consumer inflation since January of this year.China’s producer prices fell 3.6% annually in June 2025, surpassing market expectations of a 3.2% decrease and May 2025 ’s 3.3% decrease.Thursday (July 10, 2025)US initial jobless claims decreased from the previous week’s 232,000 to 227,000, below market expectations of an increase to 236,000 and marking the fourth consecutive decline and the lowest count in seven weeks.Continuing jobless claims in the US on the other hand increased to 1965K for June 2025, which is the highest count since November 2021 but below forecasts of 1,980K.Germany’s annual inflation rate decreased to 2% in June 2025, marking the lowest in 8 months and in line with market consensus. 

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Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the 1D candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report last week, Bitcoin was trading near the upper boundary of a bull flag pattern, as illustrated in the chart above. Our desk anticipated two possible scenarios: either BTC would be rejected at the upper bound or successfully break through to test a new all-time high.BTC followed the first scenario, testing the upper boundary around $109,000 (with an actual high of $108,870) before facing rejection. Subsequently, the price retraced to the $104,000–$105,000 range (with an actual low of $105,250), where it found support. Following a rally in the US stock market fueled by investor optimism around the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” market sentiment turned more positive, while the US dollar weakened against other major currencies.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that the impact of reciprocal tariffs could be less severe than previously anticipated, citing recent trade agreements between the US and several countries. Additionally, Bessent’s comments on Federal Reserve monetary policy increased the market’s expectations of a potential rate cut in September. The de-escalation of geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas, marked by a ceasefire agreement, further bolstered investor confidence in risk assets.Overall, market sentiment shifted bullishly toward risk assets, particularly the US stock market. However, the crypto market did not follow suit, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new all-time highs over the past few trading sessions, while BTC remained range-bound.Notably, the BTC volatility index recently dropped to a two-year low, indicating that options traders expect BTC to trade within a tight range in the near term. Historical data suggests that such low volatility periods are typically short-lived, signaling that traders should prepare for a significant price move in either direction once BTC breaks out of its current range.Our desk leans toward an upward breakout scenario, supported by the broader macroeconomic optimism surrounding risk assets. While we expect BTC to reach a new all-time high in the coming weeks, we remain cautious of downside risks. We are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions, as we believe that a more accommodative monetary environment will be essential to sustain the next crypto bull run.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.Over the past five trading sessions, BTC spot ETFs have experienced predominantly strong capital inflows, with the exception of July 1, which saw a capital outflow of $342.25 million. In total, these sessions recorded net inflows exceeding $900 million. During the same period, BTC’s price moved modestly from $107,000 to $109,000.As previously noted, despite robust capital inflows from ETFs in recent weeks, BTC’s price has remained within a narrow range. Our analysts suggest that this price stability may be due to some long-term large BTC holders offloading assets at these levels, effectively offsetting the buying pressure from traditional finance participants.Given these dynamics, our desk maintains a cautiously neutral stance on BTC’s near-term price outlook. We continue to monitor developments on the ETF front closely, as it remains a critical factor supporting BTC’s price momentum in the current bull cycle.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (June 26, 2024)US initial jobless claims remained in a low range, with 236,000 claims reported last week, outperforming the forecast of 244,000.US durable goods orders are projected to show a significantly higher monthly growth of 16.4% in May, compared to the previous estimate of 8.6%. This notable upward revision may be attributed to the 90-day postponement of reciprocal tariffs, with the current deadline set for July 9.Last Friday (June 27, 2024)The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded a 2.3% annual increase in May, in line with market expectations. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 2.7% year-over-year, slightly exceeding the forecast of 2.6%.Monday (June 30, 2024)China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 49.7 for June, marginally above the forecast of 49.6 and an improvement from May’s 49.5. This suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, indicating that the Chinese manufacturing sector may be approaching expansion territory.Germany, one of the largest economies in the European Union, is projecting an annual inflation rate of 2.0% for June, down from the previous forecast of 2.2%.Tuesday (July 1, 2024)Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to report a 2.0% year-over-year increase in June, consistent with prior forecasts. Core CPI is also anticipated to remain steady at 2.3% annual growth.In the US, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 52.9, surpassing the forecast of 52.0. The ISM Manufacturing PMI also improved to 49.0, slightly above the expected 48.8. Both indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector is recovering and moving toward expansion.Additionally, US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data revealed 7.769 million job openings in May, significantly higher than the forecasted 7.320 million.Wednesday (July 2, 2024)US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change surprised markets with a decline of 33,000 jobs in June, contrasting with expectations of a 99,000 increase.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram Channel (@BinanceOTCTrading) to stay up to date with the markets!