鸡父

Lazy Person's Schedule 2.0 Update

Previously, the expected end of the bull market was in mid to late October, but currently, the likelihood of it ending at the 126000 level in early October is very high.
So let's assume that 126000 is the peak of this bull market to improve the lazy person's schedule.


Around 10.22: Start building long-term short positions
Around 12.22: Close shorts and open longs
Around 2.23: Close longs and add shorts
Around 5.15: Close shorts and open longs
Around 7.15: Close longs and open shorts
Around 9.28: Close shorts and open longs

During the three months from 9.28 to 12.10, the market is likely to bottom out, allowing for high sell-low buy operations.
The biggest bottom is likely to appear in November, at which point spot buying will occur, and gradually allocate to coin-based long positions.


Regarding this bear market, two characteristics are likely to appear:
1. The bottoming time is shortened to about 3 months (the last round was 6 months, the previous round was 4 months).
2. The startup time is delayed; in the past, bear markets saw the lowest point in 12 months, while this round is expected to reach the lowest point in about 13 months (in November 26).

The main reasons for this are:
1. Considering the characteristics of the past three cycles. If the peak in early October 25 is a major peak, then many people will attempt to bottom out in October 26 and use leverage.
If we refer to the trading methods of the leading institutions this season, the likelihood of these individuals being stopped out is relatively high.
2. Once these people are stopped out, everyone will use the previous bear market bottoming time to estimate the startup time of the bull market. To avoid these people getting in, the market is likely to start early.
3. Today's retail investors are different from those in the past; three months of bottoming time is already sufficient, and there is no need to wash out retail investors by bottoming for half a year like last season.

Invitation Code: QWUG67GX

Weekly Market Analysis in the Crypto Sphere (01.31)
Summary:
1. Strategies and techniques for the long cycles of gold and silver.
2. Current fundamentals of gold and silver.
3. Why did the USD index crash and then surge? — The news side needs to be viewed in reverse.
4. U.S. government shutdown, Chinese New Year, and the metaphysical indicators of the new moon.
5. The core issue is whether 80600 is the bottom of a weekly line.
6. Historical phase one of bear markets.

Operations:
1. Bitcoin long positions are held, take profit at 98500.
2. ETH long positions are held, take profit at 3233.
3. SOL long positions are held, take profit at 143.6.

In fact, specific ideas have already been written in detail in the analysis; I would like to add a few more words here. If everyone has time, I still hope you can open the small chart to take a look, rather than just focusing on my operations. The small chart contains my relatively complete thoughts.
The current drop, even if it hits a lower low at the beginning of next week (Monday to Tuesday), I still believe it does not have continuity.
You can see that the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are still in a widely opened state. In this situation, I feel it is a bit excessive to continue a one-sided downward trend; the time is not sufficient. So it will probably be similar to the double top from December 24 to January 25, or the triple top from July 25 to October 25, where a relatively complex bottom structure forms, followed by a significant rebound before continuing a new weekly downtrend.
It should be noted that the occurrence of 97900 was in mid-January, a full month before the Spring Festival. I am not saying that I cannot accept the breaking of cyclical patterns, but it cannot be too outrageous. Even if it says mid-February, starting a new weekly downtrend before the Spring Festival would still be acceptable to me.

I thought carefully about it all night, and I feel that this week's weekly chart seems unable to determine how to operate; I need to observe for another week. This is primarily because 17 days have passed since the daily line drop starting from 97900, and it could end at any time and begin a daily line-level rebound. Therefore, the most important thing right now should be to observe the strength of this daily line-level rebound. Secondly, if the price drops first in early February, perhaps the probability of a rebound in February will actually be greater. So even if it breaks key levels, one should not draw too effective conclusions, as the likelihood of a pullback in February still exists. Thirdly, if there are new lows next week but it rises afterward, in fact...

It was originally said to wait until the weekly close to see how to operate, but today many people came to ask me throughout the day. I guess it's because of the sharp drop in the morning, which made many people panic again.

My usual posting frequency is not high, but in the past few days, I will try to persist in posting more, hoping to bring a bit of confidence to the bulls.

Today, I provide an indicator of the long-short ratio. Normally, the ratio of long to short positions is inversely related to the price trend (for example, as the price rises, the long-short ratio decreases). However, if the long-short ratio and the price move in the same direction (for instance, the price is lower, but more people are shorting), it indicates a high probability turning point.

As shown in Figure 1, on January 20, 25, the price reached a new high of 110000, and as a result, more people went long, but later it dropped all the way to 74500.
As shown in Figure 2, on April 7, 25, the price reached a new low of 74500, and as a result, more people shorted.
Again, as shown in Figure 3, on November 21 of this year, it plummeted to 80600, and as a result, more people shorted.
There are many such examples, but due to space limitations, I won't list them all.

Today (Figure 4), the price created a lower low, but at the same time, we also saw more people shorting rather than going long. Besides, a stronger supporting evidence is that the fees have also turned negative simultaneously, which indicates that many people are really chasing shorts at positions like 82500-83000, meaning that Bitcoin may currently be at a stage turning point.

As a trader, unless I have set positions in advance, I will not make unnecessary operations during a trend, whether it's an upward or downward trend. I tend to wait until the market stabilizes before deciding whether to close my positions based on indicators and macro background.
Especially when the market movement exceeds my expectations, I need more time to think and judge, rather than shouting 'Brothers, hurry up and close or add positions,' which is too emotional and not my style.
In short, this is my habit, and this habit is formed based on good position management. Without the risk of liquidation, I can wait longer, think through more dimensions of information, and strive to come up with a relatively reasonable operation plan.

Based on the current situation, everyone (especially those who are stuck in long positions) is quite anxious, so I will try to write out the market analysis tomorrow. Many people have also been asking me about precious metals these days, and I will write a bit more about that.

Starting around 12 o'clock, many friends have been asking me about my views on the market, and I have been responding one after another until now. Then I will share my thoughts in the square:
1. I completed my last round of buying at the positions of $BTC 85555, $ETH 2814, $SOL 118.1.
2. How to deal with the orders in hand is indeed a problem. According to the original plan, it should be to exit at 86000 during the rebound. However, I personally feel that I need to observe a few more indicators.
1- Will there be a new low before and after the US stock market closes (3-5 PM) until noon tomorrow? If so, what will the position be?
2- Where will the weekly closing be?
3- Where will the monthly closing be?

The reason for further observation is also many
1- I noticed that when Bitcoin hits a new low on a small scale, Ethereum and SOL have some resistance to a certain extent.
2- According to historical experience, after a government shutdown in the United States, the US stock market will rise for at least a week.
3- The monthly line will close on Saturday, the weekly line will close on Monday, and February 2 is a full moon; these critical time points are all overlapping.
3.1- Regarding the full moon, the periods before and after a new full moon have always been relatively valuable turning points. For example, 10.07, 10.21, 11.05, 11.20.
4- A very critical question is whether the 97900 on January 14 is the starting point of a weekly drop? If so, will it drop further for 3 months from 97900? I think that is unrealistic.
4.1- I reviewed all bear markets in history, and the start of a weekly drop has occurred after the Spring Festival.
2022 Spring Festival: February 1, weekly drop started on: March 28
2018 Spring Festival: February 16, weekly drop started on: March 5
2014 Spring Festival: January 31, weekly drop started on: February 1
This year's Spring Festival: February 14, weekly drop started on: ?
5- For friends with high leverage, if you want to reduce leverage, the reference positions I provide are 89400/91000.

Weekly Market Analysis in the Crypto Space (01.26)
Summary:
1. From Japanese Bonds to Liquidity to U.S. Stocks
2. Nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman
3. Interest Rate Decision and U.S. Government Shutdown Not Being Bearish and Its Reasons
4. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Precious Metals
5. Focus on Banks and Real Estate this Week
6. Brief Discussion on U.S. Stocks
7. Structure of Bitcoin at Daily Line Level

Operations:
1. $BTC Long Position Held, Take Profit 98500, 85555 for Additional Purchase.
2. $ETH Long Position Held, Take Profit 3403.
3. $SOL Long Position Held, Take Profit 148.8.

Originally, I thought that if there was an opportunity, I could place long-term short positions in mid-February after making two daily line level trades. Since I did not enter the medium-term short position, I could only take one medium-term long position. However, I also mentioned that the medium-term short position was optional, while I was definitely going to take the medium-term long position.

In my view, the current medium-term long position has very clear profit expectations and stop loss levels. I have already explained this clearly in the last market analysis and in posts from the past two days.
1. Since the weekly upward movement has not ended, the take profit is at the previous high level;
2. Since the starting point of the weekly upward movement is 84500, the stop loss is when it breaks below 84500 and then bounces back to 86000.
However, even so, since I did not update the market analysis yesterday, many people still came to ask me today if they should stop loss on the long position, whether they can still hold, and if the take profit has changed?
In fact, if you look at it from a time perspective, I have already mentioned that the bottom will be seen at the latest by this week, or last week at the earliest. From a spatial perspective, Bitcoin has not even managed to connect with my last long position order at 85555. But if you keep staring at the market, especially if you are looking at smaller time frames, it can easily affect you. Some people cannot hold their positions probably for this reason.
So everyone really should not stare at the market too much; just take a glance in the morning when you wake up and another glance before you sleep.

I also mentioned that I was bullish in January. Everyone should pay attention to the high probability of a fourth month closing positively after three consecutive bearish monthly candles. Coupled with the macroeconomic factors mentioned earlier, as long as the monthly line is in a "bearish candle" state, it is a good position. Moreover, from the support and resistance perspective, closing this month above 90000 is also a highly probable event. Additionally, if it does close bearish this month, as long as it does not break crucial levels, wouldn't February be even better?

Recently quite busy, this week I "might" not be able to update the analysis on time, so I'll briefly share my viewpoints for your reference.

1. It has been confirmed that $BTC 97900 is the top of the daily line, and currently, we are experiencing a downward trend on the daily level. However, the market is moving a bit faster than expected, so the time frame may be shortened.
What was originally said is that the downward movement on the daily line would end around late January to early February, but it now seems likely to end around late January (this week to next week).

2. There is a possibility that 87200 is the bottom; even if 87200 is not the bottom, a trip back to around 85000 would likely conclude.

3. Since 84500 is the bottom on the weekly line, and 97900 is the top of its first daily line. Therefore, in terms of operation, both the profit target and stop loss are very clear. The profit target is naturally around 98500, while the stop loss would be if it falls below 84500 and rebounds to 86000.

4. In terms of operation, as long as it does not break 84500, the main strategy should be to buy on dips. It is advisable to avoid closing positions during sideways fluctuations; try to hold long positions as much as possible. If it can drop to around 85500, then add one last position. For those following trends, try not to think of significantly reducing positions just for a small profit of 1000-2000 points.

5. There is still a possibility of a small imitation season in February, which can be attempted with light positions. If the small imitation season index does not reach 75+ in February, the possibility of a small imitation season in July will be very high. Considering that privacy coins are all performing strongly, I hope $ZEN can be a bit more supportive.

6. I previously said that after five consecutive declines of Bitcoin, one can start buying, and after six consecutive declines, one can increase positions. My exact words were that six consecutive declines are rare, and there have almost never been cases of seven consecutive declines. Regardless of the conclusion or logic, this statement is not wrong. In fact, if this strategy is followed with appropriate position management, one will absolutely not incur losses; reviewing past historical data will lead to this conclusion. I operate this way myself, and my opening and closing positions, points, positions, and liquidation prices are all public, and the trades are synchronized.
To be honest, if I wanted to do short-term trading to make a profit of 20,000-30,000 RMB, I could have taken profits at any time in the past few days, but I plan to hold for a medium-term approach.
I've mentioned the importance of position management many times, and I really hope everyone keeps it in mind. Always remember, trading ≠ gambling.

7. I haven't been in the chat room for the past few days due to some matters, but I will take time tonight to chat with everyone. If you have any questions, please tag me.

I just found out today that 【FX Warrior Kuryoumei】 is getting an anime adaptation.
This manga roughly tells the story of a girl whose mother committed suicide after losing 20 million yen in forex trading, and then she herself wants to reclaim everything she lost through forex trading.

Back then, starting from the second episode, the forex and futures forums were simultaneously translated into Chinese, and it was very popular in a small circle. The translation group and all the readers were all gamblers, and even the manga artist was an experienced trader, involved in forex, stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

I really encourage everyone to check it out. I still don’t know which month it will air, but I will let everyone know after it is released.

1. In the short term, if it closes bearish at 8 AM tomorrow, one can take a light long position at market price for a full 24 hours, as six consecutive bearish daily closes at $BTC are extremely rare.
If it also closes bearish tomorrow, one can increase the position at 8 AM the day after tomorrow, as there is almost no occurrence of seven consecutive bearish daily closes.

2. From the perspective of the Chande theory, in the coming days, there should at least be a 4-hour level rebound here, whether it surpasses 97900 is yet to be discussed, but it should reach around 95000.

3. Still from the perspective of the Chande theory, has the daily level rebound that started from around 84500 in mid-December ended at the 97900 level? This is still uncertain.
If 97900 is the peak on the daily level, then the subsequent daily level decline will reach around 85000-87000, with timing around the end of January. After reaching this position, long positions need to be solidified.
If 97900 is not the peak on the daily level, a higher point above 97900 should be established this week. The subsequent daily level decline will still reach around 85000-87000, but the ending time may be delayed until early February.

4. In terms of operation, this medium-term short position (on the daily level decline) is still optional. Since we are currently in a weekly level rebound, it seems most prudent to only consider making two daily level trades, and to set up long-term short positions towards the end of the weekly increase.
Because some people may not be able to endure the loneliness without positions, this is why a short-term plan that allows for a little gain has been provided today.

Weekly Market Analysis in Crypto (01.18)
Summary:
1. Next week, pay attention to the non-ferrous sector, likely to open low and rise high, with the Shanghai Composite focusing on the 4040 mark.
2. Buy USDT in October, buy Bitcoin in November.
3. Four short-term reasons for silver's potential correction.
5. The Buffett Indicator hits a new high.
6. The impact of CARF on us.
7. The weekly trend is definitely not over, but whether the daily level's peak is 97900 is currently unclear.
8. Three reasons to believe the daily rebound is not over.
9. Is next week's Senate spending bill a turning point?
10. The main task in February is to set up long-term short positions.

Operations:
1. $BTC place a short at 99300, take profit at 87300;
2. Buy Bitcoin in batches at 87300/85555, take profit at 99300;
3. $ETH place a short at 3450, take profit at 2900;
4. Buy Ethereum in batches at 2900/2830, take profit at 3450;
5. $SOL place a short at 148.8, take profit at 123.3;
6. SOL buy in batches at 123.3/119.9, take profit at 148.8

Currently in a state of no positions, hoping to take short positions next week. This way, before laying out long-term shorts in February, we can still take two daily-level trades (mid-term shorts and mid-term longs). Otherwise, we can only make one mid-term long trade at the daily level and then wait to build long shorts in batches in February.

For the long-term shorts in February, a reasonable entry point is within the range of 103000-105000. To be safe, a small position can be built near 99000 to prevent missing out, and then increase the position starting from 103000.

If February has a meme coin season, the market cap ranking of meme coins between 10-50 (especially old memes) will likely have a better cost-performance ratio than Bitcoin shorts. Specifically, it depends on whether February can see a meme coin season index of 75+. Although the current weekly-level rebound is expected to last until mid to late February, as February begins, the strategy should slowly shift from buying on dips to shorting on rallies.

I just took profit at 97200, selling out Ethereum, SOL, and some smaller altcoins simultaneously. Let me briefly outline the general plan ahead.

1.$BTC short position will start entering from 99500. There are two operational strategies for this short position.
1.1. Start building a medium-term short at 99500, close the short and go long at 87300, add to long position at 85555, and close the long at 99500. Then, gradually build a long-term short position in a pyramid pattern between 100000 and 105000, with a target profit at 58500.
1.2. Start building a long-term short directly from 99500, with gradual entries in a pyramid pattern between 99500 and 105000. The only difference from 1.1 is that you go long at 87300 but do not close the short. The expected profit target for the long-term short remains 58500.

2. The weekly wave starting around 84500, its first daily-level upward move, is nearly complete. Following a daily-level correction, another daily-level upward move is expected. In short, regardless of where the correction reaches by late January or early February, it's highly likely that the high point from January will be broken by mid-to-late February.
Medium-term operations can be flexible, but the key is to have the long-term short positions in place before the end of February.

3. Handle $ETH and $SOL in sync with Bitcoin operations. If you really want to place orders... forget it, just follow my entries.

4. The core idea for January is still to go long on pullbacks, as the larger weekly upward wave is not yet complete, and a high point in February is highly probable. Therefore, short positions may not be feasible, but a long position should be established if the market retraces to 87300.

5. The current price levels are somewhat idealized; actual execution may not go as planned. Ultimately, my real-time actions will be the main reference. I will post updates once I enter short or long positions.

6. Tomorrow, I'll be in Qu Shui Lan Ting, Hangzhou, with my partner. If anyone else is there, feel free to share your location in the chat room so we can meet up.

Weekly Crypto Market Analysis (01.12)
Summary:
1. Focus on AI and semiconductors in the A-share market, but be cautious about chasing highs.
2. The market top phase in the US stock market
3. Let's discuss the US dollar
4. From the rate-cutting cycle to the trend of the market
5. What if the 4-year cycle doesn't exist?
6. Heat map, long/short ratio, greed index, USDT.D
7. When will altcoins have a rally?
8. The resonance between indicators and fundamentals

Trading Strategy:
1. The medium-term long position in $BTC is still held, target profit at 97500;
2. The medium-term long position in $ETH is still held, target profit at 3780;
3. The medium-term long position in $SOL is still held, target profit at 156;
4. Buy Bitcoin at 87400 and 85555 in batches to build a position;
5. Buy Ethereum at 2904 and 2830 in batches to build a position;
6. Buy SOL at 123.2 and 119.9 in batches to build a position.

From the perspective of Chan Theory, last week's 4H-level correction has already reached the 4H EMA125 and MA250 levels, with sufficient space and a complete structure, so the next 4H-level uptrend can begin at any time. Even considering the impact of news, the correction remains temporary and uncertain, while the upward trend is definite.
The previous 4H-level uptrend in Bitcoin: From 87200 to 94700;
The previous 4H-level downtrend in Bitcoin: From 94700 to 89600;
Therefore, the next 4H-level uptrend in Bitcoin will not fall below 97100, which is quite clear.

On the other hand, SOL's performance over the past few days has clearly outperformed Bitcoin. If you're a veteran follower, you should immediately realize that Bitcoin still has room to rise.

I added 2%, 1%, and 1% positions respectively at $BTC 90500, $ETH 3120, and $SOL 134.9 today.
Current BTC is 4% position at 30x leverage.
ETH is 2% position at 30x leverage.
SOL is 2% position at 20x leverage.

My goal remains unchanged. I will definitely post a notice when I exit, as always. There's no need to ask me every day whether I can hold my long positions or where I plan to exit.

Currently, both my average entry price and liquidation price are better than Teacher Mao's. Teacher Mao is the only clearly identified A10 expert in the plaza, and she hasn't closed her positions yet. Naturally, I have no reason to close mine.

Today, someone in the chat room said they're struggling with profit retracement, and others commented that it's a pity I'm experiencing profit retracement. Yesterday, someone even asked me in the comments why I didn't short despite knowing a 4-hour level correction was coming.

I've answered similar questions in 2024, 2025, and I'll continue to answer them patiently this year:
The core issue is the trading timeframe. If I close my longs at 94,500 and go short, would I close my shorts at 90,000? No, I don't have a crystal ball, so I'd only close at 92,000. Then, if I go long again at 92,000, what position size would I use, and where would my stop-loss be?

To be honest, it's good this 4-hour drop reached around 90,000. If it had stopped at 91,500 and reversed upward, I wouldn't have added any more positions due to my personality. So I'm actually grateful for this correction—it gave me enough depth to add a small position.

Yes, I not only don't care about profit retracement, but I even thank the strength of the correction.

I saw people in Xiao Z's comment section saying, 'You're not closing your longs during profit retracement, so you must be hedging.' Honestly, Xiao Z's position management has serious issues. If he doesn't improve, he'll definitely blow up in the future. Combined with his habit of posting selfies, I think he's very likely to become 'Liangxi 2.0.' But I don't believe he's hedging just to gain traffic and scalp others.

In fact, ever since Xiao Z recovered his capital, the comment section has been full of people telling him to close his longs and go short. If he had followed that advice, he wouldn't have the current profits—he would have been wiped out long ago. Xiao Z has these profits precisely because he can hold on, yet some people mock him for doing so.

Trend-following trades are the clear answer for retail traders to make money. I can only say I'll help one person at a time, doing my best. If some people truly can't be helped, there's nothing I can do about it.

Thank you all for your comments yesterday. I saw that some people said they mainly want to talk about coins, while others said they want to see everything, with a rough proportion of about half and half.

Among all the comments (as well as private exchanges), what resonated with me personally were the replies from these two fans.

One mentioned the need to filter fans, which really struck a chord with me. Only I truly understand the bittersweetness of it. Here, I would like everyone to ponder a question: Is the result more important in trading, or is the process more important? In fact, both are important. For me personally, the result is more important, but for readers, I believe that the mindset, methods, and logic are more important. This is the difference between teaching someone to fish and giving them fish. My trading in the crypto space is closely related to my interpretation of macro factors. Many KOLs interpreting macro factors are meaningless because their trades are short-term intra-day trades. They might be wrong in their macro interpretation but still make a profit on their trades. However, my holding period is rarely less than 2 weeks. If I do not understand what is happening in this world and simply look at technical indicators or draw lines, I will definitely fail.

Another person said something I completely agree with: “Spot/trend traders and short-term/swing traders are essentially playing two different games. One is investing and the other is gambling.”
He is absolutely right.
I would also like to recommend a few bloggers; I hope you will definitely check them out:
@Pickle Cat ’s insights on trading are a must-see
@Murphy ’s statistics and analysis of on-chain data are worth looking at
@CryptoChan , the cycle believer, has indicators worth checking out
@Kenzoy ’s trading ideas and methods are worth learning
Also, watch Wang Tank's videos more; it won't hurt you.

For now, I will maintain my current analysis style, but considering the feelings of another group of fans, I will increase my time in the chatroom. Everyone is welcome to come and ask me questions.
I will also start organizing the content on “skills” in advance, which will be about 60,000 words in total. I haven’t organized it yet; I originally planned to release it in May/June, but I intend to tighten it up and release it in February.
This way, both groups of people should be taken care of~

Xinda has reached 6 points, and Hengrui has also reached 5.5 points. CXO surged today, did everyone benefit?
Speaking of which, I genuinely want to ask everyone a question: do you prefer me to only discuss cryptocurrencies in the market analysis, or should I also cover commodities, US stocks, the Chinese A-shares, and foreign exchange? Because I feel that about 80% of people do not look at other products; when I previously promoted jewelry, it seemed that not many people followed.

If you prefer me to only discuss cryptocurrencies, then future market analyses will be divided into mainstream and alternative sections. Otherwise, I can continue with the current style. Which do you prefer?

Weekly Market Analysis in the Crypto Space (01.04)
Summary:
1. Focus on the CXO sector next week
2. Discuss a few commodities we didn't cover last time (the expectation of copper's decline in 2026 and the expectation of nickel's rise)
3. In the medium to long term, the expectation of the renminbi's appreciation and the expectation of the US dollar and Japanese yen's depreciation
4. The correct practical methods for long-term trend trading
5. For those who believe there is one last drop, how should they operate? Should they go long on a pullback or short at the current price?

In terms of operations:
1. Holding a mid-term long position in $BTC , take profit at 98300;
2. Holding a mid-term long position in $ETH , take profit at 3444;
3. Holding a mid-term long position in $SOL , take profit at 151;
4. Gradually placing long orders for Bitcoin at 85555, 80000, 78500;
5. Gradually placing long orders for Ethereum at 2900, 2600, 2550;
6. Gradually placing long orders for SOL at 119.9, 115, 112.

From a structural perspective, the weekly downtrend that started from 126000 has already been completed. The phase change point time I provided in the pinned lazy person's timetable on the homepage is in late December, which was my conclusion given last October. Everyone knows that I have made over 30000 points on my long positions, with a complete real-time record. That’s definitely more reliable than those who only suggest shorting after prices drop to 80000.
Even if it has now risen to 91300, it is no longer suitable to chase long, but I still do not recommend shorting at the current price, as there is still a probability of a potential short squeeze on Monday. I want to emphasize again that although it is a bear market, a weekly level upward movement will at least last for 2 months.

Currently, the liquidity around 91000 has been swept away, but the market has not immediately turned downward, indicating bullish sentiment for next week from the perspective of the heat map liquidation chart.
Although USDT.D will inevitably go above 10% this year, it should pull back to 5.6% in the short term to confirm support, indicating a bullish outlook for next week as well.
The long-short ratio is rapidly declining, so the hunt for shorts is not over yet.
In terms of sentiment, the current greed index is only 40, indicating that we have not yet reached a peak.

There will be opportunities for mid-term short positions in late January (98000-87500), but the main tone of operations should still be to go long on pullbacks.

Many people are currently shorting, or preparing to short. I hope these people can think carefully: why short now? What is the logic behind shorting now?

If your answer is: it's a bear market, only shorting and not going long.
Then I acknowledge you. But just like from March 2024 to September 2024, from 73800 to 52500, it was just a weekly level pullback in a bull market. From January 2025 to April 2025, from 110000 to 74500, it was also a weekly level pullback in a bull market. If you are still shorting now, you are preparing to resist a weekly level rebound, so be mentally prepared for that.

If your answer is: it has risen so much, it must drop now.
Then think about it, how much has it dropped from 126000 to now? Going to 100000+ is not unreasonable, right? Or how much has it risen from 80600 to now, and from 84500 in mid-December to now? It doesn't seem like much, does it?

I shorted at a very high position, and at that time, I set the take profit at 82500, which was successfully achieved. Your choice at that time was to go long at 110000, and to go long at 100000, but there was no pullback at all, right? Now that it has dropped to over 80000, saying to short at 90000, isn't that repeating the same old mistake?

Is it possible that it will drop to 80000 or 85000? Of course, it's possible, but what you need to do is to layout long positions at lower levels. For example, layout 1% of your position at 85000, and 2% of your position at 80000, right? No matter how deep it drops, January is the rhythm for pullbacks to go long, instead of looking bullish just because it has gone up a little and wanting to short. Think about it, is this reasoning correct? To put it bluntly, now at 90000, is the probability of dropping to 80000 greater, or the probability of rising to 100000 greater? Clearly the latter.

Manage your position well; don't let a few thousand points lead to a liquidation, as even if it rises to 103000-105000 as expected, it will have nothing to do with you. Look at my positions, is there a liquidation price? Since the beginning, there have been people saying I have an ant-sized position, and I was originally quite embarrassed because I indeed opened positions like 1%, 1%. Now I think about it, if you have ever been liquidated, how can you have the audacity to say I have an ant-sized position?

Hello everyone, I am the Chicken Father. Wishing everyone a Happy New Year! I wonder how everyone spent last night, was it with your parents or with your significant other? Regardless, I hope everyone can have a smooth journey in 2026, everything goes well, and may you achieve success in trading and make big money.
I have prepared a small red envelope for everyone, it's not much, just enough for a lollipop per person, but I hope you can feel the intention behind it.

Here are a few things I would like to talk to everyone about.
1. First of all, the rebate from January will be automatically processed from my side. The commissions for December will be fully distributed on January 2nd, and I will no longer manually distribute them going forward.
Actually, it should have been set to automatic a long time ago, but a small number of friends needed RMB, so I haven’t switched it over. From now on, it will uniformly be automatically rebated in U.

2. As for me personally, I have already closed all my medium-term short positions yesterday, and I currently only have long positions. Given the three consecutive bearish monthly candles, I am strongly bullish for January/February (I've been mentioning this since I laid out long-term short positions in November). Any declines in the coming days are opportunities to add to long positions.

3. For me personally, my first position to add is $BTC around 85500, $ETH is around 2900, and $SOL is around 120. However, I will still keep the orders around 80000 for Bitcoin, and everyone should also be cautious about the possibility of black swan events; the core of trend trading is position management.

The market over the past 2 weeks has been quite challenging for trend traders, and many people have come to ask me how to operate next?
First of all, I am not a deity.

If I were really that confident and still had one last position open, I wouldn't say to open a long position just after 8 AM today.
If I were really that confident and believed that the weekly downtrend has completed and it’s time to start a weekly uptrend, I should also close my short positions.
The reason I am opening both long and short positions is because I don't have a strong confidence in the current market. However, after careful consideration, I still believe my current strategy should be the optimal solution at this stage.

Specifically, the core position right now is between 88300 and 89300. If the daily close is above 88300, one could consider closing shorts and adding longs. Otherwise, the possibility of dropping below 80000 always exists.
Alternatively, from the perspective of "fear of missing out," we currently need to allocate some long positions; however, to defend against the last drop, previous short positions must be retained, and the position size should be greater than that of the long positions.

The current issue is that many people do not have short positions; they will wonder if they can go long? How to do it? To this, I have three points:
1. Left-side top/bottom, extreme position management and extreme price levels, at least one must be present. If neither can be achieved and one has to rely on frequent stop losses, then the profit will be significantly lower.
2. The reason I went long at market price at 8 AM today, and the reason I still haven't closed my long positions now, is the same: I have short positions in hand.
3. If you can't hold onto your positions and always close early, then right-side trading will suit you better. Operation-wise, patience is required right now.

Finally, since 99% of the people in the market are day traders, I would also like to offer my advice: stop trading, wait for the large unilateral market to end, and resume trading rhythm once the market starts to oscillate again.
There are three reasons for this:
1. Purely technical analysis cannot determine the effectiveness of a breakout/breakdown.
2. A breakout of a daily level triangular convergence needs to wait for the daily close to confirm, and you cannot wait that long. 24 hours is too long of a decision-making time for you.
3. The range you are currently observing is smaller than the actual range that will fluctuate.