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From Tokyo to Wall Street: A Global Prelude to a Fiscal Credibility Crisis
The sell-off of Japanese government bonds is not an isolated event, but a warning sign of a global sovereign debt credibility crisis. When the world's largest debtor nation (Japan) and the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds begin to question their own fiscal sustainability, no market can remain unaffected.
This week, the Japanese bond market staged a textbook-level "bond vigilante" action. The 40-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield surged to 4.213%, reaching a historical high since the issuance of bonds of that maturity in 2007. The yields for 30-year and 20-year bonds jumped by more than 25 basis points each, marking the most severe single-day fluctuations since last April's Trump "Liberation Day" tariff shock.
This week, the Japanese bond market staged a textbook-level "bond vigilante" action. The 40-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield surged to 4.213%, reaching a historical high since the issuance of bonds of that maturity in 2007. The yields for 30-year and 20-year bonds jumped by more than 25 basis points each, marking the most severe single-day fluctuations since last April's Trump "Liberation Day" tariff shock.
BTC/Gold ratio drops to 18.5, a two-year low: a "rare" asymmetric betting opportunity?
As global capital migrates from sovereign debt to hard assets, the pattern of gold leading and Bitcoin lagging is repeating. This divergence is both a risk signal and possibly a prelude to cyclical rotation.
The BTC/Gold ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold one Bitcoin can buy, fell to 18.5 this week, hitting its lowest level since November 2023. The pace of this metric's collapse is noteworthy: for the entirety of 2025, the ratio has dropped by 50%, in stark contrast to its peak of over 30x at the end of 2024.
The direct cause of this imbalance is the surge in gold. Spot gold reached a historic high of $4,888/ounce this week, with a year-to-date increase of over 60%, marking the best annual performance since 1979. Multiple favorable factors are at play: rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, ongoing geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East, Venezuela), a record surge in gold purchases by global central banks, and deep concerns over the creditworthiness of sovereign debt.
The BTC/Gold ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold one Bitcoin can buy, fell to 18.5 this week, hitting its lowest level since November 2023. The pace of this metric's collapse is noteworthy: for the entirety of 2025, the ratio has dropped by 50%, in stark contrast to its peak of over 30x at the end of 2024.
The direct cause of this imbalance is the surge in gold. Spot gold reached a historic high of $4,888/ounce this week, with a year-to-date increase of over 60%, marking the best annual performance since 1979. Multiple favorable factors are at play: rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, ongoing geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East, Venezuela), a record surge in gold purchases by global central banks, and deep concerns over the creditworthiness of sovereign debt.
Trend Research today withdrew 17,899 ETH from Binance again.
On-chain monitoring shows that the well-known institution Trend Research has withdrawn a total of 17,899 ETH from Binance in batches over the past 12 hours.
Based on the current price of $2,958, the total value is approximately $52.94 million.
This address has accurately bottomed out multiple times before; after the last large withdrawal, ETH rose by 18%...
Based on the current price of $2,958, the total value is approximately $52.94 million.
This address has accurately bottomed out multiple times before; after the last large withdrawal, ETH rose by 18%...
How Trump's tariff threats transmit to the Crypto market?
Starting from February 1, a 10% tariff will be imposed on the EU, with an additional 200% tariff on French wine.
Does it seem unrelated to Crypto? In fact, it is very relevant.
First, there is the dollar effect. Tariff friction has led to a weakening of the dollar, with EUR/USD volatility soaring to 5.89%, hitting a new high since November.
The weak dollar theoretically benefits BTC (the narrative of the dollar as a substitute), but in the short term, a decline in risk appetite will first hit all risk assets.
Secondly, there is the transmission path. European stocks have been declining continuously, with DAX down 0.68% and CAC40 down 0.82%. The sentiment in the stock market typically transmits to Crypto with a delay of 6-24 hours.
Thirdly, there is policy uncertainty. Trump's tariff policy has always been 'what you see is what you get,' but the magnitude and scope often exceed expectations.
Does it seem unrelated to Crypto? In fact, it is very relevant.
First, there is the dollar effect. Tariff friction has led to a weakening of the dollar, with EUR/USD volatility soaring to 5.89%, hitting a new high since November.
The weak dollar theoretically benefits BTC (the narrative of the dollar as a substitute), but in the short term, a decline in risk appetite will first hit all risk assets.
Secondly, there is the transmission path. European stocks have been declining continuously, with DAX down 0.68% and CAC40 down 0.82%. The sentiment in the stock market typically transmits to Crypto with a delay of 6-24 hours.
Thirdly, there is policy uncertainty. Trump's tariff policy has always been 'what you see is what you get,' but the magnitude and scope often exceed expectations.
InfoFi track collapsed in 3 days, the irony of decentralization
X platform product head Nikita Bier's policy: Prohibiting apps from incentivizing users through rewards.
InfoFi track collapsed within 72 hours. Kaito and other leading projects face life-and-death choices.
What is the most ironic part of this matter?
The entire Web3 industry shouts "decentralization", "anti-censorship", "user sovereignty" every day.
And the result? One of the hottest tracks died due to a policy change from a centralized platform.
InfoFi's business model is built on the API and user base of the X platform. If X does not cooperate, everything goes to zero.
InfoFi track collapsed within 72 hours. Kaito and other leading projects face life-and-death choices.
What is the most ironic part of this matter?
The entire Web3 industry shouts "decentralization", "anti-censorship", "user sovereignty" every day.
And the result? One of the hottest tracks died due to a policy change from a centralized platform.
InfoFi's business model is built on the API and user base of the X platform. If X does not cooperate, everything goes to zero.
$285 turned into $627,000: The complete path to a 2200 times return from the ZReaL insider address
Address AG2GXk only spent $285 to buy 66.3 million pieces of ZReaL.
Subsequently sold 19.98 million pieces through 4 wallets, cashing out $210,000. Currently still holding 46.3 million pieces, worth $417,000.
Total revenue: $627,000. Return rate: 2,200 times.
Subsequently sold 19.98 million pieces through 4 wallets, cashing out $210,000. Currently still holding 46.3 million pieces, worth $417,000.
Total revenue: $627,000. Return rate: 2,200 times.
BTC quickly recovered after dropping below 90,000, but $519 million in long positions have already been liquidated.
BTC's lowest point today reached $89,816, then rebounded to $90,212.
In the last 24 hours, long positions worth $519 million were liquidated, with an additional $190 million in the past hour. The market did not give any reaction time.
Interestingly, the 7-day ETF net inflow remains positive - $1.34 billion. Institutions are buying, while retail investors are liquidating.
Who is on the opposite side?
In the last 24 hours, long positions worth $519 million were liquidated, with an additional $190 million in the past hour. The market did not give any reaction time.
Interestingly, the 7-day ETF net inflow remains positive - $1.34 billion. Institutions are buying, while retail investors are liquidating.
Who is on the opposite side?
The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has exceeded 4%, the first time since its issuance in 2007
This is the first time since 1995 that Japanese sovereign debt of any maturity has reached 4%.
The Takashima Sanao food tax reduction plan has raised concerns about public finances, with the 40Y Japanese government bonds rising 6 basis points during the day.
Resona Asset Management: The Japanese bond market is 'unattended, and selling continues without stopping'.
The Takashima Sanao food tax reduction plan has raised concerns about public finances, with the 40Y Japanese government bonds rising 6 basis points during the day.
Resona Asset Management: The Japanese bond market is 'unattended, and selling continues without stopping'.
Besent fires back at Davos: Europe's retaliation is 'very unwise'
The US Treasury Secretary said at the Davos Forum that the EU's decision-making is slow and will only establish a 'terrible working group.'
Releasing a significant signal: The new chairman of the Federal Reserve may officially announce next week.
4 candidates enter the final round: Warsh, Hassett, Waller, Rieder.
Releasing a significant signal: The new chairman of the Federal Reserve may officially announce next week.
4 candidates enter the final round: Warsh, Hassett, Waller, Rieder.
$10 trillion nuclear bomb: Will Europe use 'weaponization of US assets'? No...
Still quite timid.
Deutsche Bank was the first to propose this possibility: European countries hold $8 trillion worth of US bonds and stocks, nearly twice the total of the rest of the world.
Adding the UK and Norway, the total exceeds $10 trillion. The Norwegian sovereign fund alone holds $2.1 trillion.
But the reality is stark: most are held by private funds, and the government cannot directly control them. Selling off would also hurt European investors themselves.
A more likely path: delay the approval of the EU-US trade agreement from last July + consider activating the 'anti-coercion instrument' (ACI) that has never been used before.
Deutsche Bank was the first to propose this possibility: European countries hold $8 trillion worth of US bonds and stocks, nearly twice the total of the rest of the world.
Adding the UK and Norway, the total exceeds $10 trillion. The Norwegian sovereign fund alone holds $2.1 trillion.
But the reality is stark: most are held by private funds, and the government cannot directly control them. Selling off would also hurt European investors themselves.
A more likely path: delay the approval of the EU-US trade agreement from last July + consider activating the 'anti-coercion instrument' (ACI) that has never been used before.
"1" skyrockets 304%: philosophical article turns into liquidity password
A token is named "1", inspired by a viral article about "how to change the future by planning one day".
In one week, it rose by 304%, with the market cap jumping from 4.5 million to 9 million and then breaking 10 million.
Meme coin is evolving. Initially relying on animal avatars, then on political figures, and now it begins to rely on "philosophical concepts". Dan Koe's long article discusses time management and life efficiency, which has nothing to do with cryptocurrency — but that's precisely the point.
What liquidity chases is not logic, but attention. An article going viral on social media means someone is willing to pay for that attention. Tokens just financialize this willingness to pay. The logic of "1" is not "what is this thing useful for?", but rather "how many people are discussing this thing?".
In one week, it rose by 304%, with the market cap jumping from 4.5 million to 9 million and then breaking 10 million.
Meme coin is evolving. Initially relying on animal avatars, then on political figures, and now it begins to rely on "philosophical concepts". Dan Koe's long article discusses time management and life efficiency, which has nothing to do with cryptocurrency — but that's precisely the point.
What liquidity chases is not logic, but attention. An article going viral on social media means someone is willing to pay for that attention. Tokens just financialize this willingness to pay. The logic of "1" is not "what is this thing useful for?", but rather "how many people are discussing this thing?".
The L1 war enters the second half: Solana crushes the narrative with traffic
Nansen data shows that Solana's weekly active addresses reached 27.1 million, a week-on-week increase of 56%, leaving BNB Chain and Tron behind. The numbers are impressive, but they need to be dissected.
515 million weekly trading volume, TVL increased from 8 billion to over 9 billion, DEX annual trading volume of 1.5 trillion USD—these figures support the narrative of Solana as the 'King of L1'. The supply of stablecoins has doubled to 14.8 billion USD, indicating that funds are being locked on-chain.
However, the timing of the surge in active addresses is quite delicate: expectations of airdrops, meme coin speculation, and a concentrated period of incentive activities. When ETF assets exceed 1 billion USD and Forward Industries holds 690,000 SOL, how much of the on-chain activity is from real users, and how much is funds preparing for liquidity exits?
515 million weekly trading volume, TVL increased from 8 billion to over 9 billion, DEX annual trading volume of 1.5 trillion USD—these figures support the narrative of Solana as the 'King of L1'. The supply of stablecoins has doubled to 14.8 billion USD, indicating that funds are being locked on-chain.
However, the timing of the surge in active addresses is quite delicate: expectations of airdrops, meme coin speculation, and a concentrated period of incentive activities. When ETF assets exceed 1 billion USD and Forward Industries holds 690,000 SOL, how much of the on-chain activity is from real users, and how much is funds preparing for liquidity exits?
Digital Rupee, Digital Renminbi, Digital Ruble—central banks are building a road that the dollar cannot bypass.
The Reserve Bank of India has proposed to interconnect the digital currencies of BRICS countries for cross-border payments and has requested to include it in the agenda for the 2026 summit. The timing of this proposal is intriguing.
The underlying architecture of BRICS Pay has been established: a decentralized cross-border messaging system (DCMS) with a processing capacity of 20,000 messages per second, connecting Russia's SPFS, China's CIPS, India's UPI, and Brazil's Pix. The pilot was originally scheduled for the end of 2026, but the timeline has now been pushed to 2030—this reflects not a lack of capability, but the complexity of political coordination.
"Unit" prototype scheme is more radical: 60% BRICS currencies + 40% gold backing. When the 11 BRICS countries contribute 29% of the world's GDP, 43.6% of oil production, and 72% of rare earth minerals, this bypassing the dollar pipeline system has a real economic foundation.
The underlying architecture of BRICS Pay has been established: a decentralized cross-border messaging system (DCMS) with a processing capacity of 20,000 messages per second, connecting Russia's SPFS, China's CIPS, India's UPI, and Brazil's Pix. The pilot was originally scheduled for the end of 2026, but the timeline has now been pushed to 2030—this reflects not a lack of capability, but the complexity of political coordination.
"Unit" prototype scheme is more radical: 60% BRICS currencies + 40% gold backing. When the 11 BRICS countries contribute 29% of the world's GDP, 43.6% of oil production, and 72% of rare earth minerals, this bypassing the dollar pipeline system has a real economic foundation.
MAJI cut loss on HYPE long position of about 1.2 million USD, loss of 329,000
。。。
HyperInsight monitoring shows that "Brother Maji" has executed a reduction operation.
Reduced 50,000 HYPE, still holding about 4.7768 million USD long position.
Current floating loss is 68.87%, liquidation price is 18.219 USD.
This early blue-chip NFT big player has seen their account shrink from over 100 million USD to several hundred thousand.
HyperInsight monitoring shows that "Brother Maji" has executed a reduction operation.
Reduced 50,000 HYPE, still holding about 4.7768 million USD long position.
Current floating loss is 68.87%, liquidation price is 18.219 USD.
This early blue-chip NFT big player has seen their account shrink from over 100 million USD to several hundred thousand.
Gate Alpha opens the 146th GT points airdrop
Starts at 17:00 UTC+8, with high, medium, and low tier airdrops.
Starts at 17:00 UTC+8, with high, medium, and low tier airdrops.
Privacy coins surge collectively: DASH +115%, is regulatory arbitrage real demand?
DASH surged 115% in a week, reaching $80. During the same period, Monero increased by 16%, and the entire privacy coin sector is moving.
Why now?
Several possible reasons:
1) Geopolitical tensions, funds seeking anonymous channels;
2) The advancement of CBDCs in various countries, which inversely stimulates privacy demand;
3) A rebound from previous excessive declines.
DASH surged 115% in a week, reaching $80. During the same period, Monero increased by 16%, and the entire privacy coin sector is moving.
Why now?
Several possible reasons:
1) Geopolitical tensions, funds seeking anonymous channels;
2) The advancement of CBDCs in various countries, which inversely stimulates privacy demand;
3) A rebound from previous excessive declines.
CLARITY Act hearing on January 27! Regulatory reassessment window for SOL and XRP
On January 27, the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee will vote on the CLARITY Act. If passed, tokens like SOL and XRP may be officially recognized as "commodities" rather than "securities." This is the biggest regulatory boon since the SEC's wave of lawsuits in 2025.
The core of the CLARITY Act is to delineate the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. In simple terms: securities fall under the SEC's jurisdiction, while commodities fall under the CFTC's. The issue is that most tokens are neither traditional securities nor commodities. If the Act passes, it will provide a clear compliance pathway for them.
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the CLARITY Act will pass in Q1, using this as one of the arguments for "2026 is the year of Ethereum."
The core of the CLARITY Act is to delineate the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. In simple terms: securities fall under the SEC's jurisdiction, while commodities fall under the CFTC's. The issue is that most tokens are neither traditional securities nor commodities. If the Act passes, it will provide a clear compliance pathway for them.
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the CLARITY Act will pass in Q1, using this as one of the arguments for "2026 is the year of Ethereum."
What Are We Witnessing When Gold and Bitcoin Strengthen Simultaneously?
Trump imposed tariffs on 8 countries, protests in Iran continue, and the global geopolitical risk index has risen to its highest level since the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. In this environment, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is hitting historical highs.
In 2025, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold repeatedly exceeded 0.6, something that had almost never happened before 2020. Traditionally, BTC has been classified as a "risk asset"—rising and falling in tandem with the Nasdaq. However, its behavior pattern is changing over the past two years.
There are several reasons.
First, the institutional funds brought by ETFs—these funds are allocated based on the logic of "portfolio diversification," rather than "chasing gains and cutting losses." Second, the global trend of de-dollarization—when the U.S. uses tariffs and sanctions as weapons, other countries begin to seek alternative means of value storage. Third, the maturation of Crypto itself—volatility is decreasing, and liquidity is improving.
In 2025, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold repeatedly exceeded 0.6, something that had almost never happened before 2020. Traditionally, BTC has been classified as a "risk asset"—rising and falling in tandem with the Nasdaq. However, its behavior pattern is changing over the past two years.
There are several reasons.
First, the institutional funds brought by ETFs—these funds are allocated based on the logic of "portfolio diversification," rather than "chasing gains and cutting losses." Second, the global trend of de-dollarization—when the U.S. uses tariffs and sanctions as weapons, other countries begin to seek alternative means of value storage. Third, the maturation of Crypto itself—volatility is decreasing, and liquidity is improving.
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