Just as I turned my head, the market gave you a 30% rebound. Last night, when I opened the trading software, I almost thought I had bought counterfeit currency—this volatility is crazier than my neighbor's husky tearing apart the house! That's right, this is the daily routine of the crypto market: either it makes you so rich you can't sleep, or it makes you lose so much you want to uninstall the software. But as a seasoned analyst who has been observing the market for 8 years... oh no, I mean as a veteran trader, I have to bare my heart and chat with you today: is this rebound just a fleeting moment, or the true prelude to a bull market?
First, let me give you the conclusion so you don't worry about losing your time: my opinion is neutral with a cautious bias. This rebound feels more like a short-term emotional 'replenishment' of funds rather than a signal of a trend reversal. Don't rush to refute me; let me present the key points, and if you disagree, we can battle it out in the comments.
First, from the on-chain indicators, this recent wave of increase is actually short-term speculative funds 'filling the pit'. I reviewed nearly 7 days of on-chain data and found that most of the buying funds are concentrated in the short-term contract market, and large transfers are mostly small and medium addresses following the trend. The real main funds (those whale addresses holding more than 1000 coins) not only did not increase their positions but quietly reduced their holdings when the rebound reached key resistance levels—it's like a group of retail investors pulling a cart, while the main funds are handing out water and casually pulling out a few axles; how far do you think this cart can go?
To add a few more words considering the macro environment, this is the core that determines the market's big direction. Recently, the interest rate expectations of major global economies have loosened a bit, and many people speculate that there may be interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which gives risk assets a little breathing room. But be careful, 'expectations' do not equal 'facts'. As long as interest rates remain high, the crypto market will find it hard to have a true comprehensive bull market. I have seen too many 'expectation-driven rebounds' that ultimately flipped because the actual policies fell short of expectations, so in this market, don't treat short-term benefits as a long-term ticket.
There's another interesting point. Have you noticed that the varieties involved in this rebound are particularly mixed? It's not like previous years where the 'leader leads the small brothers'; instead, it’s a situation where all kinds of corner materials are rising, which actually reflects the market's restless emotions. In a real trend market, funds would concentrate on tracks with technical barriers and actual application scenarios, rather than the current chaotic trading. I myself currently only have small positions in two directions: one is projects in the Layer 2 track with real trading data, and the other is infrastructure projects combined with AI. The rest are just for observing the excitement; after all, preserving capital is crucial to survive as an 'old wizard' in the market.
Some friends may ask: is it time to sell or buy now? My advice is: for those already in profit, raise your stop-loss to above the cost line and let the profits run; for those who haven't entered yet, don't chase highs! Don't chase highs! Don't chase highs! It's important to say it three times. It's better to wait for a pullback to key support levels and then test with small positions than to act as a 'bag holder' at the peak. As for those who are stuck, don't panic. First, check if the fundamentals of the projects you hold have changed. If they are just fluctuating with the market, then patiently hold on. If the fundamentals have worsened, you have to cut losses. Don't fight against the market, or you'll only get deeper into the pit.
Finally, I want to hear your thoughts! Are you bullish, bearish, or neutral like me? Are you trading based on technical analysis or selecting stocks based on fundamentals? Did you catch this rebound's 'dark horse', or did you accidentally fall into a pit?
If you feel helpless and confused about trading right now, and want to learn more about cryptocurrency-related knowledge and cutting-edge information, follow me @标哥说币 .
