On a macro level, the latest CME 'FedWatch' data shows that the market remains significantly divided on the policy direction for December. The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is less than half, with a slightly higher probability of maintaining the current stance. As we enter early next year, bets on a 25 basis point rate cut have risen to 48.2%, but there are also voices advocating for keeping rates unchanged or further cutting by 50 basis points, reflecting investors' continued lack of stable expectations for the economic outlook.
In policy discussions, Federal Reserve Governor Waller's attitude is particularly critical. He has clearly stated that the weakness in the labor market has persisted for several months, and the current data showing improvement is insufficient to change his support for another rate cut in December. Waller believes that excessively tight monetary policy puts pressure on the economy, especially on low- to middle-income groups, so a moderate reduction in rates under controllable inflation conditions can help stabilize employment and serves as a preventive management of risks.
In line with discussions on macro policy, Vice Chairman Jefferson further talked about crypto assets. He pointed out that digital currencies are a natural innovation in the financial sector, and the Federal Reserve will neither restrict nor promote their development, but will ensure the stability of the banking system. He emphasized that crypto assets will not change the Federal Reserve's ability to implement monetary policy as long as the policy remains consistent with economic demand.
From an international perspective, the policy rhythms of major central banks are showing significant divergence. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice more in 2026; the European Central Bank is more inclined to remain steady; the Bank of England is expected to restart interest rate cuts in December due to improving inflation; while the Bank of Japan, due to strong economic and inflation performance, continues to see rising expectations for interest rate increases.
At the market level, institutions and national-level buyers continue to increase their holdings of Bitcoin. Strategy has added over 8,000 coins this year, bringing total holdings to nearly 650,000 coins, valued at approximately 48.3 billion USD, with an annual return rate of 27.8%. El Salvador is also increasing its Bitcoin reserves, having added over 1,100 coins in the past 30 days, bringing total holdings to 7,474 coins, with a market value close to 700 million USD.
However, the funding situation shows a completely different trend. CoinShares reports that digital asset investment products have seen net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with last week's outflow reaching 2 billion USD, the largest single-week outflow this year. Bitcoin and Ethereum saw outflows of 1.38 billion USD and 689 million USD, respectively, with market sentiment leaning towards caution. Solana and XRP also experienced minor withdrawals.
On the other hand, BitMine's balance sheet performance continues to expand, with ETH holdings increasing to over 3.55 million coins, valued at over 11.8 billion USD, while also holding 192 BTC, ORBS stocks, and over 600 million USD in cash.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's turnover rate has continued to rise yesterday, but the chip structure remains stable, and the increase in turnover rate has not led to panic selling, as holders' patience remains at a relatively high level.
According to URPD data, between the 104,500-111,000 USD range, 2.226 million Bitcoins have accumulated; in the 93,500-98,500 USD range, 1.383 million Bitcoins have accumulated.
Overall, Bitcoin dipped to 89,000 USD, and after completing the CME gap filling, it oscillated around 90,000 USD. Historically, the market is moving towards a potential opportunity zone. In the next 1 to 2 months, Bitcoin is likely to maintain a weak and narrow range of movement, with the possibility of revisiting the 83,000–87,000 USD range. If it reaches this area, it may become an important position for the next round of medium to long-term layout. This round of adjustment is more like a transition in the market rather than a destruction of the bullish structure. #加密市场回调
