At the macro level, as we enter late November, the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook is becoming increasingly clear. According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 69.4%, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged has clearly decreased. Looking ahead to January next year, the market not only expects the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to exceed 56%, but there is also a 22.3% willingness to bet on a larger cut of 50 basis points. Overall, the market atmosphere is leaning towards a more accommodative stance.
On the U.S. side, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Schenker mentioned in a recent interview that the 43-day government shutdown has resulted in an estimated permanent loss of about $11 billion to the economy. However, he maintains a positive outlook on the growth momentum for the coming year. He believes that although some industries that are highly sensitive to interest rates have begun to show signs of recession, the overall economy is not facing the risk of negative growth. Regarding inflation trends, he pointed out that price pressures in the service sector are more concerning, and he expects that the continued decline in energy prices will further ease the overall price level.
In terms of governance in the crypto industry, the Uniswap community's temperature test regarding the 'fee switch' received 100% support, which means that the upgrade of the relevant mechanism will officially enter the on-chain voting stage.
On the funding side, there is still structural differentiation. SoSoValue statistics show that from November 17 to 21, the SOL spot ETF attracted $128 million in a single week, demonstrating outstanding performance. Bitwise BSOL and Grayscale GSOL recorded net inflows of $86.31 million and $18.13 million respectively, raising the total net value of SOL series products to $719 million, with cumulative inflows surpassing $510 million.
At the same time, confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem continues to strengthen. Dune Analytics data shows that the amount of staked ETH on the Beacon Chain has reached 35.79 million ETH, accounting for 28.84% of the total supply. Lido's market share is close to 24%, and after the Shanghai upgrade, the amount of staked ETH remains in a net inflow trend.
In contrast to the positive performance mentioned above, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.22 billion during the same time window. However, Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust and BTCO still maintained a certain capacity for absorption, recording net inflows of $274 million and $35.8 million respectively.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's turnover rate continued to rise yesterday, with some investors in loss reducing their positions, leading to a cautious short-term market atmosphere.
URPD data shows that 2.085 million Bitcoins were accumulated in the $104,500-$111,000 range; 1.145 million Bitcoins were accumulated in the $93,500-$98,500 range.
Overall, Bitcoin is undergoing a typical oversold recovery phase. The current rebound may struggle to form a sustained upward trend, and there could still be a re-test of the key support level at $80,000. Based on cyclical relationships, this area is expected to become a phase stabilization point. If validated successfully, a trend-rebound process may still occur within the next one to two months. The current market pattern is not sufficient to define the end of a bull market.#比特币预测
