Tonight at 21:15, the ADP data will determine the critical line for interest rate cuts in December!
Tonight's ADP small non-farm data is not ordinary data—it is the only indicator that can reveal the Federal Reserve's actions in advance. Because the market has now entered a stage where it can only guess interest rate cuts based on employment data. There is no non-farm data, no CPI, and only this can provide direction.
If tonight's data is weak, it means that the U.S. job market is cooling, and the Federal Reserve will have more reason to cut rates to save the economy; the market will instantly interpret it as "easing ahead of time," and funds will quickly rush into high-elasticity assets—Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and commodities may instantly surge, and short-term fluctuations will be very intense.
But if the data is strong, it tells the market that "employment remains robust, the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to ease," then expectations for interest rate cuts will cool down, and market optimism will be suppressed. High-priced assets may be directly hammered down in a wave of liquidation, especially those that have risen based on interest rate cut expectations over the past two weeks.
There is no need to contrive the market, no need to guess the direction—tonight at 21:15, watch the direction and strength of the first one-minute candlestick, it surpasses all your speculations and predictions in the last 48 hours. True trading wisdom is not about betting in advance, but about waiting for confirmation before entering in the direction of the trend.
For those placing orders, remember that position is the most important; for those who are flat, remember to keep an eye on 21:15; if you miss this one-minute candlestick, you may miss half of tonight's intense fluctuations. Tonight, it will either be a sharp rise or a sharp fall—but it will definitely be intense. $BTC
