To the brothers who have been staring at the screen until their eyes are sore, first take a break and massage this ETH four-hour K-line. This afternoon, I almost spilled my coffee from the fright.
I am Old K, immersed in the encryption circle for five years. I have witnessed the madness of 2017 and endured the bear market of 2022. Today, this market must pull you to deeply analyze: don't just focus on 'how much it has fallen', but also see clearly whether this pullback is a 'washout reversal' or a 'breakdown crash', especially at the 3300 mark, the waters are much deeper than you think.
First, let me highlight the key points for the anxious brothers: tonight is not the time to 'lie flat and wait for dawn'. The 'liquidity bomb' thrown out by the Bank of Japan late at night has a more direct impact on ETH than the fluctuations of the US stock market. But don't panic, the more chaotic it gets, the more we need to grasp the core; let's break it down step by step.
1. The 'deadly signal' on the four-hour chart: it's not to scare you; it’s something to truly guard against.
Many people look at prices when trading but overlook the moving averages, which act as a 'guiding stick.' This afternoon, in the four-hour chart of ETH, the short-term moving average was directly pressed down hard on the long-term moving average, forming a typical 'death cross.' Don't think this is just jargon to confuse people; simply put, the 'momentum' that originally pushed prices up has now turned into 'pressure.'
What's even more interesting is the level of 3300; it just touched it in the morning and immediately pulled back without even establishing a stable stance. This is not 'coincidental'; it's money intentionally 'painting a picture': first giving you a hope of 'rebound,' and when you chase in, they will turn and slam the market down. I checked the recent trading volume, and during the pullback, the volume actually increased, indicating that large funds are quietly exiting, leaving retail investors standing guard at high positions.
Here’s my judgment: in the short term, ETH will likely still need to 'grind it out.' The key support is between 3150-3200; if it breaks, then we have to look at the 3000 level for pullback space. If it can hold, there may be a real rebound. Don’t hold on stubbornly with a 'gamble' mindset; the market won’t give you a green light just because of your stubbornness.
2. The Bank of Japan is making a big move at midnight: this 'bomb' is the key tonight.
After discussing the technical aspects, let’s look at the news. Today's news is not 'news,' it’s a 'nuclear bomb,' and the main player is the Bank of Japan.
In the dead of night, the Bank of Japan suddenly announced an adjustment to its yield curve control policy, simply put, it's a 'de facto interest rate hike.' How does this relate to ETH? It has a lot to do with it! All the hot money globally is 'profit-seeking,' and once the yen has yield attractiveness, some of the funds originally flowing into the crypto space could 'flow back,' which is a 'strangulation' for high-volatility assets like ETH.
I checked historical data, and last time the Bank of Japan took similar actions, Bitcoin dropped directly by 8%, and ETH followed with a 10% drop. The intensity of tonight's actions is even greater than last time, so do not let your guard down. But there’s no need to panic; this kind of decline caused by news is often a 'short-term impact' and won't change the long-term trend provided you have proper risk control.
Three things that must be done tonight: don't operate blindly; this is the life-saving tactic.
Having said so much, it's not to make everyone panic and sell at a loss, but to teach everyone to 'seek profit and avoid harm.' Tonight, regardless of how much ETH you have, you must act on these three points immediately:
1. Immediately check your stop-loss position: set the stop-loss below 3150, don't think it's too low; this is to prevent being 'liquidated' by a spike, and to be able to stop-loss in time if it truly breaks, preserving your capital for a chance at recovery. If you've already set it, confirm it again; don't let software glitches trip you up.
2. Don't randomly increase your position: now is not the time to 'buy the dip.' Even if you think the price is low, use at most 10% of your idle funds to add; never touch your living expenses or mortgage money. I've seen too many people go all in during a pullback, only to be crushed by the market.
3. Keep a close eye on the movements at 2 AM: the fund flows before the U.S. stock market closes are crucial. If U.S. stocks drop significantly, ETH will likely face pressure; if U.S. stocks stabilize, ETH may find support around 3200. You don't need to stay up all night watching the market; just set an alarm to check the closing price, as maintaining good energy is more important than anything else.
Lastly, let me say something heartfelt.
In the crypto space, the money earned is not 'lucky money,' it's 'cognitive money.' Today's warning isn't to make you sell your coins and run; it's to prevent you from stepping into a pitfall. The market's ups and downs are normal; as long as you preserve your capital, when the trend comes, we can still benefit.
