BTC (2025-12-09 08:10) | Long and Short Trend Index: 44 / 100 (Weak volatility, short-term stabilization but limited momentum)
BTC is currently trading around $90,670. There was a rapid surge at the end of yesterday's trading session but it could not be sustained, and then it fell back to the central range. Overall, it is still in a weak rebound structure, with signs of short-term bottoming, but the trend has not shown a clear reversal. Resistance is at the 91,300–92,000 range, while support is at 89,800 and 88,900.
【Short-term Trend】
In the 15-minute timeframe, MA7 and MA25 are once again converging, reflecting no obvious advantage for either bulls or bears. MACD has just crossed bullish from a low position, but the momentum bars are weak, indicating a nature of oversold recovery; RSI has returned to the 47–52 range, suggesting sentiment is tending towards neutral. The overall structure resembles a bottoming consolidation, but trading volume is still insufficient to drive the trend.
The 1-hour chart shows that after a short-term rebound, there is resistance and pressure, with MA7 bending down close to MA25, MACD momentum weakening, and RSI hovering around 48. Bulls do not have the ability to continue upward attacks, and the market has entered a short-term observation period.
【Medium-term Trend】
The 4-hour timeframe is still operating within a downward channel, with MA99 providing clear resistance to the price. The recent rebound has not been able to break through the trend line, indicating that the medium-term trend remains bearish. Although MACD shows signs of narrowing the bearish momentum, an effective reversal has not yet been formed; RSI has risen to around 50, in the observation zone of a trend turning point.
On the daily chart, although MA7 has shown a slight upward turn, it is still operating below MA25, indicating a weak rebound overall. The bearish MACD bars have shortened, and the decline is slowing; RSI is around 45, indicating a reduction in bearish advantage, but bulls have not yet gained dominance. As long as the daily chart cannot stabilize above 92,500, the strength of the medium-term rebound will be limited.
【Long-term Structure】
The weekly chart still maintains oscillation around MA25, with prices halting declines but difficult to claim a reversal. MACD remains downward but the speed is slowing, and RSI is hovering in the 39–40 range, reflecting long-term sentiment is weak but has not shown panic selling. Overall, it still belongs to the tail stage of a large-scale adjustment.
【Impact of News】
1. The market is awaiting the release of the US CPI data this week. If inflation continues to decline, it will be favorable for a short-term rebound in risk assets.
2. BTC ETF funds recorded a slight net outflow yesterday, indicating cautious sentiment among institutions.
3. The amount of coins held by exchanges continues to decrease, but on-chain activity has not increased simultaneously, representing a choice for funds to stay on the sidelines rather than entering on a large scale.