The Reserve Bank of Australia leans hawkish: Policies have room to maneuver, asset differentiation shows volatility

On December 9, RBA Governor Philip Lowe released hawkish signals during a press conference, becoming a key variable in the market that day: his core statement focused on "inflation risks"—clearly indicating that current inflation pressures are biased upwards. Although the meeting did not formally discuss interest rate hike or cut options, it did mention the "possibility of tightening policies" and pointed out that "if inflation remains high, an interest rate hike will be considered"; he also emphasized that the policy framework is "data-driven + decisions made in consecutive meetings," without providing a clear timetable for interest rate hikes.

This statement has a differentiated impact on different assets:

For gold and silver, the short-term logic is "increased expectations of interest rate hikes → passive strengthening of the dollar → pressure on non-USD assets," but since Lowe did not anchor the timing of interest rate hikes, the hawkish tone leaves enough buffer space. Gold and silver are unlikely to experience a one-sided decline and will most likely maintain a high level of volatility. Subsequent tracking of the RBA's focus on "inflation data (CPI)" and "employment data (unemployment rate, new jobs)" is essential, as these two indicators will directly determine the strength of the policy hawkishness.

For crude oil, the impact of policy is relatively minor: although a stronger dollar slightly suppresses crude oil priced in dollars, the core pricing logic of crude oil still anchors on supply and demand—factors like Iraq's plan to increase crude oil production and supply disruptions in the Black Sea (geopolitical risks) dominate the market. The policy will only amplify short-term fluctuations and will not change the "supply-demand-driven volatility pattern."

Essentially, this hawkish stance by the RBA is not a "strong tightening signal," but rather a combination of "inflation warning + policy flexibility": it responds to high inflation risks while avoiding excessive tightening expectations in the market. Reflected in the asset side, it means "no one-sided trend, with localized volatility"—gold and silver need to await data to clarify policy direction, while crude oil continues to revolve around supply and demand games, all within a "waiting for new variables" volatility cycle. #黄金 #原油 #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH #美联储重启降息步伐