Is there a possibility that the altcoin market will become like the US stock market, after the altcoins just experienced 2018?

First, on the market front, excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, the total market capitalization of altcoins peaked in December 2024.

Second, regarding monetary policy, interest rates increased in 2018, and although there was no increase in 2025, the first three quarters maintained high rates. The federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4%.

Third, in the economic environment, both 2018 and 2025 are characterized by tariffs and trade wars.

Fourth, concerning cycles, due to expectations of a four-year cycle, traders have positioned themselves in advance, leading to cycles always advancing.

In the previous cycle, the altcoin season was in January 2018.

In the last cycle, the altcoin season was in April 2021, and most altcoins did not reach the highs of the first half in the second half.

Following this rhythm, this round of altcoin season at the end of 2024 seems very reasonable.

Of course, the market no longer buys into the narrative that altcoins rely on so-called technology and ecology, which is an important influencing factor.

However, the disruption of this cycle is also a touchstone; those projects that profited from the bull market will likely abandon development in 2026.

On the contrary, the projects that genuinely work will not promote themselves during a bear market but will continue to operate.