The actual employment situation in the United States is not good. What is the probability of the Federal Reserve adopting a hawkish stance?

The non-farm data for September is clearly good, so why did Williams from the Federal Reserve say the labor market is cooling?

The answer is simple: how could the Federal Reserve lower interest rates by only looking at one month of economic data?!!

Here is the non-farm employment data in the United States after the pandemic:

Here is the unemployment rate in the United States after the pandemic:

Overall, employment is shrinking while the unemployment rate is rising.

Therefore, the actual situation of the U.S. economy is not good. The reason the Federal Reserve has not continuously lowered interest rates is that the CPI is indeed not too low, still around 3%. Friends may not be very familiar with this annual CPI rate; it is actually compared to the same period last year. In other words, compared to September last year, prices have risen by 3%, and the increase was even more significant in the previous two years. So, inflation is still somewhat serious.

Thus, the Federal Reserve's strategy might actually be to lower interest rates intermittently. When the economy is not good, they lower rates a bit, then pause to observe.

They lowered rates three times in Q4 last year, then paused this year, and will lower again in Q4.

Therefore, a rate cut in December may have originally been part of the Federal Reserve's plan. If there is no economic data from October to reference, then actually, the economic data from November can be referenced for a rate cut decision in January. With the government shutdown in November, the stock market falling, it is highly likely that the economy and employment will not improve.